Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS

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000
FGUS74 KLUB 211752
ESFLUB
220552-
HYDROLOGIC STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1252 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

..ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS)
LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE BRAZOS
RIVER BASIN IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN LUBBOCK TEXAS HAS
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR
THE BRAZOS RIVER BASIN IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC
OUTLOOKS. THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.

IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS.  EXAMPLE:  THE DOUBLE MOUNTAIN FORK OF THE BRAZOS
RIVER NEAR ASPERMONT 10S HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 21.0 FEET.  THERE IS
A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE ASPERMONT FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE
12.9 FEET
DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.

        CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
            VALID  8/21/2014 - 11/20/2014

LOCATION     FS(FT)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
--------     ------  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
SALT FORK OF THE BRAZOS RIVER
 ASPERMONT 13N 12.0  2.7  2.7  2.7  3.2  4.5  5.3  6.5  7.7  8.8
DOUBLE MOUNTAIN FORK BRAZOS RIVER
 JUSTICEBURG   19.0  5.6  5.6  5.6  5.6  5.6  6.8  7.6  8.2  8.8
 ASPERMONT 10S 21.0  5.3  5.8  8.7 10.2 12.9 15.4 18.9 22.3 25.3



LAKE ALAN HENRY
    90%    80%     70%    60%    50%    40%    30%    20%    10%
    ---    ---     ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
   2201.9 2201.9 2201.9 2201.9 2201.9 2202.5 2203.7 2205.1 2206.9

THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED.

ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT:  HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LUB
(INTERNET ADDRESS IS ALL LOWER CASE).

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.

$$




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