Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FGUS74 KLZK 071238 CCA
ESFLZK
ARC001-005-009-011-013-019-021-023-025-029-031-039-041-043-045-049-
051-053-055-059-063-065-067-069-071-075-079-083-085-089-095-097-
099-101-103-105-109-113-115-117-119-121-125-127-129-135-137-141-145-1
47-149-080600-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
100 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS A
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA WHICH IS WHOLLY LOCATED WITHIN THE STATE OF
ARKANSAS. IT ENCOMPASSES AN AREA WHICH INCLUDES THE WHITE RIVER AND
TRIBUTARIES FROM BULL SHOALS DAM DOWNSTREAM...THE ARKANSAS RIVER AND
TRIBUTARIES FROM DARDANELLE DOWNSTREAM...AND THE OUACHITA
RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES FROM THE HEADWATERS TO THE UPPER BOUNDARY OF
THE FELSENTHAL NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE. ALONG WITH THE MAIN STEM OF
THESE RIVERS...IT ALSO INCLUDES TRIBUTARIES WITH FORECAST LOCATIONS
ON THE CACHE...BLACK...SPRING...SALINE...PETIT JEAN...FOURCHE
LAFAVE...LITTLE MISSOURI...BUFFALO...LITTLE RED...MULBERRY...AND
ELEVEN POINT RIVERS.

EXISTING CONDITIONS...

RAINFALL - THE WINTER BEGAN WET WITH SURPLUS PRECIPITATION ACROSS
MUCH OF ARKANSAS IN DECEMBER. SEVERAL ARCTIC COLD FRONTS MADE A PASS
THROUGH ARKANSAS IN JANUARY AND FEBRUARY...BUT MOST OF THEM LACKED
MOISTURE AND RESULTED IN BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE MOST
NEGLECTED AREA WAS THE WHITE RIVER BASIN NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER
WHICH RECEIVED LESS THAN 75 PERCENT OF AVERAGE PRECIPITATION DURING
THE LAST THREE MONTHS. THREE MONTH AVERAGES WERE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF
MARCH.

SOIL MOISTURE - SOIL MOISTURE WAS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
ARKANSAS. THE DRIEST SOILS WERE IN THE UPPER PORTION OF THE WHITE
RIVER BASIN...WITH SOIL CONDITIONS CLOSEST TO NORMAL IN THE OUACHITA
MOUNTAIN REGION. SNOW AND ICE WERE MELTING IN NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE STATE...AND THAT WAS SLOWLY INCREASING THE GROUND WATER SUPPLY.
IF HEAVY RAIN WAS TO OCCUR IN THE NORTH IN THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE...RUNOFF WOULD BE ELEVATED.

RIVER FLOWS AND RESERVOIRS - A RECENT HEAVY RAIN EVENT CAUSED MINOR
FLOODING ALONG THE OUACHITA RIVER...WITH STREAMFLOW ABOVE SEASONAL
LEVELS IN THE UPPER OUACHITA BASIN. STREAMFLOW ALONG THE MAINSTEM OF
THE ARKANSAS RIVER WAS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE WHITE AND BLACK
RIVERS WERE FLOWING BELOW NORMAL. PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURRED THIS
WINTER FELL MOSTLY DOWNSTREAM OF THE FLOOD CONTROL RESERVOIRS IN THE
UPPER WHITE BASIN...KEEPING THEM BELOW SEASONAL CONSERVATION POOL
LEVELS.

WHITE RIVER BASIN...

MINOR FLOODING OCCURRED IN LATE DECEMBER AND EARLY JANUARY BUT DRIER
WEATHER CAUSED ALL RIVERS IN THE BLACK AND WHITE RIVER BASINS TO
RECEDE TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. OVERALL SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT WAS
NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL. NO FLOODING WAS OCCURRING OR IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOW AS A PERCENT
OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW.

                                             3/5
BLACK RIVER               BLACK ROCK AR      48%
WHITE RIVER                  NEWPORT AR      64%

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL...WHICH INCLUDES SOME
MINOR FLOODING...IS EXPECTED OVER THE BLACK AND WHITE BASINS.
PERCENT OF AVAILABLE FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE IS GIVEN BELOW.

                                             3/5
                     BULL SHOALS RES. AR    100%
                         NORFORK RES. AR    100%
                    GREERS FERRY RES. AR    100%

ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN...

CORPS OF ENGINEERS PROJECTS IN ARKANSAS HAVE APPROXIMATELY 99
PERCENT OF THEIR FLOOD CONTROL CAPACITY AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME.
STREAM FLOWS IN ARKANSAS ARE ALSO REFLECTIVE OF THE RECENT
PRECIPITATION. STREAMS IN WEST CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE ARE
FLOWING AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...WITH ISOLATED STATIONS FARTHER
DOWNSTREAM REPORTING BELOW NORMAL DISCHARGES BELOW 25 PERCENT OF
NORMAL.

FOR THE ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE NORMAL
TO BELOW NORMAL. OBSERVED FLOW ALONG THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER IS
CURRENTLY NEAR 20000 CFS WHICH IS 26 PERCENT OF NORMAL COMPARED TO
THE LONG TERM AVERAGE OF 76000 CFS FOR EARLY MARCH. BASED ON CURRENT
SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS AND NORMAL SPRING RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN
AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER ARKANSAS BASIN.

OUACHITA RIVER BASIN...

SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NORMAL AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST FOR
THATCHER LOCK AND DAM. NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OUACHITA RIVER BASIN. ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS
A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW.

                                             3/5
OUACHITA RIVER                 CAMDEN AR    131%

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED OVER THE
OUACHITA RIVER BASIN. PERCENT OF AVAILABLE RESERVOIR FLOOD CONTROL
STORAGE IS GIVEN BELOW.

                                            3/5
                        LAKE OUACHITA AR    100%
                          DEGRAY RES. AR    100%
                         LAKE GREESON AR    100%

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOOD CONDITIONS IN THE OUACHITA RIVER BASIN WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL THIS SPRING. FLOODING IN WESTERN ARKANSAS USUALLY
OCCURS IN RESPONSE TO RANDOM HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENTS. THERE ARE
CURRENTLY NO INDICATIONS OF EXTREME HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS TO ALTER
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL OF THE AREA.

METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK...

THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
INDICATES HIGHER CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR ARKANSAS.
HIGHER CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA AS WELL.

THE 30-DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA. THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE UPPER WHITE
RIVER BASIN.

THE 90-DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES HIGHER CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE BLACK RIVER BASIN. HIGHER CHANCES OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EXTENDING NORTH TO THE ARKANSAS BORDER...WITH
EQUAL CHANCES ELSEWHERE.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR ON MARCH 4TH SHOWED NORTHWESTERN AND
EXTREME SOUTHERN ARKANSAS EXPERIENCING ABNORMALLY DRY (D0)
CONDITIONS. CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS WERE FREE OF DROUGHT.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER`S FEBRUARY 28TH DROUGHT OUTLOOK CALLED
FOR NO DEVELOPMENT OR INTENSIFICATION OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE
NEXT THREE MONTHS.

CONCLUSION...

OVERALL THERE ARE NO STRONG INDICATORS THAT SUGGEST AN OVERLY WET OR
SEVERELY DRY SPRING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT MARCH...APRIL...AND MAY
ARE GENERALLY THE THREE WETTEST MONTHS OF THE YEAR...SOME LEVEL OF
FLOODING CAN STILL BE EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS TO BE A
SHORTER WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ACTIVE WEATHER GIVEN THE COLDER
AIR IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE SPRING SEASON.

BY APRIL/MAY...EXPECT AT LEAST AN AVERAGE SPRING SEASON WITH PERIODS
OF HIGHLY CONVECTIVE SEVERE WEATHER AND ASSOCIATED HIGH QUANTITIES
OF RAINFALL OCCURRING PERIODICALLY IN A SHORT PERIOD AND OVER
SMALLER WATERSHEDS. LOCALIZED...HIGH INTENSITY RAINFALL CAN CREATE
FLASH FLOODING AT ANY TIME...EVEN DURING PERIODS OF DROUGHT. THIS
SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK DEFINES LONG TERM RIVER
FLOODING...AND DOES NOT ASSESS THE RISK OF SHORT TERM FLOODING.

THE SPRING POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IS A ROUTINE PRODUCT. SHOULD EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL BECOME PART OF THE FORECAST AT ANY OTHER TIME OF THE
YEAR...A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED WITH EVENT SPECIFIC
INFORMATION. ALSO LOOK FOR RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES OR FLOOD WATCHES.
IT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO REMAIN SITUATIONALLY AWARE.

FOR THE LATEST RIVER STAGE INFORMATION...FORECAST...AND WARNINGS
PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT:

HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LZK

RIVER STAGE AND FORECAST DATA CAN BE OBTAINED BY SELECTING THE
RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS LINK UNDER THE CURRENT CONDITIONS SECTION.

$$

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