Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FGUS72 KMHX 041859
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NCC013-031-049-055-061-079-095-103-107-117-133-137-147-177-187-
061900-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
159 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

...THE SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL POTENTIAL OF
RIVER FLOODING ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH APRIL...

HISTORICALLY FOR THE CAROLINAS...THE RIVER FLOOD SEASON BEGINS IN
EARLY TO MID JANUARY...WITH THE NUMBER OF RIVER FLOOD EVENTS
INCREASING THROUGH LATE WINTER WITH A PEAK IN EARLY TO MID
MARCH...ENDING IN LATE APRIL FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS FLOOD
SEASON HAS BEGUN EARLY AND HAS SET THE STAGE FOR MORE FLOODING IN
THE COMING MONTHS.

FOR THIS REGION...STREAMFLOWS ARE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL...MEDIUM AND
LONG RANGE PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE LEANS TOWARDS WET WEATHER THROUGH
APRIL. THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND RIVER FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE THIS WINTER DUE TO WET SOILS...FORECASTED ABOVE NORMAL
RAINFALL AND LAKES THAT ARE FULL. OVERALL...THE RELATIVE RISK IS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

CURRENT STREAMFLOWS...THE 14-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS PROVIDED BY THE
USGS AS OF FEBRUARY 2ND ARE RUNNING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
CAROLINA.

PAST PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS...BASED ON
SERFC MULTISENSOR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES...HAS BEEN NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

RESERVOIRS...MOST RESERVOIRS ARE ABOVE THEIR TARGET POOLS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

SNOW PACK...NO HYDROLOGIC SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK AT THIS TIME.

FUTURE PRECIPITATION...AFTER THIS SYSTEM...THE LATEST MEDIUM
RANGE METEOROLOGICAL MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. THE LATEST CPC 8 TO 14
DAY OUTLOOK IS INDICATING A COOLER AND DRIER PATTERN AS WELL.

AS FAR AS LONGER TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS...BASED ON THE CPC LONG
LEAD OUTLOOK...ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL AS YOU APPROACH THE
COASTAL AREA. THIS IS BASED ON CPC CLIMATE MODEL FORECASTS AND THE
CURRENT EL NINO ADVISORY.

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

THE SERFC ISSUES A VARIETY OF PRODUCTS THROUGHOUT THE YEAR TO UPDATE
THE OUTLOOK FOR WATER RESOURCES.  THE SERFC WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
IS UPDATED EVERY MONTH.

FOR THE LATEST MULTIMEDIA VERSION OF THE WATER RESOURCES
OUTLOOK...GO TO...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SERFC AND CLICK ON WATER RESOURCE MENU.

$$



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