Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
945 PM CST THU MAR 3 2015

...ABOVE NORMAL SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL EXPECTED FOR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...

HISTORICALLY...THE RIVER FLOOD SEASON BEGINS IN EARLY TO MID
JANUARY...WITH THE NUMBER OF RIVER FLOOD EVENTS INCREASING THROUGH
LATE WINTER WITH A PEAK IN EARLY TO MID MARCH...ENDING IN LATE APRIL.

RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS HAS GENERALLY BEEN
ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR TO INCLUDE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...AND ALSO PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE.  OTHERWISE...30 DAY RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN BELOW
NORMAL ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR.  STREAMFLOWS ARE RUNNING
BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE.  STREAMFLOWS ARE ABOVE NORMAL NORTHWEST OF I-65 IN
SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE OVER INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WETTER THAN
NORMAL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MARCH. THEREFORE...THE EXPECTATION IS
FOR THE NUMBER OF RIVER FLOODS AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THOSE RIVER
FLOODS TO BE NORMAL TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH APRIL. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY LONG TERM ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW FORECASTS. THESE ENSEMBLE
STREAMFLOW FORECASTS CAN BE FOUND ON THE WATER.WEATHER.GOV WEB SITE
UNDER THE EXPERIMENTAL LONG RANGE RIVER FLOOD RISK TAB.

CURRENT STREAMFLOWS...THE 14-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS PROVIDED BY THE
USGS ARE RUNNING BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
THE EXCEPTION IS THE LOWER TOMBIGBEE AND ALABAMA RIVERS...WITH 14
DAY STREAMFLOWS AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL.

FUTURE PRECIPITATION...THE LATEST 8 TO 14 DAY AND ONE MONTH OUTLOOKS
ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION THROUGH MARCH. SEE THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER WEB SITE FOR MORE DETAILS:

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

YOU CAN ALSO FIND ADDITIONAL AND CURRENT WEATHER INFORMATION AND
FORECASTS ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL WEB PAGE AT:

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MOB(ALL LOWERCASE)

FOR DETAILED WEB INFORMATION CONCERNING RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS...GO
TO:

HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=MOB (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOR PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS...GO TO:

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SERFC/QPFVSMAP.SHTML
(ALL LOWERCASE)

$$



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