Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FGUS73 KMQT 051024
ESFMQT
MIC013-053-061-071-103-131-051800-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
523 AM EST THU MAR 05 2015

...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 2...

This spring flood and water resources outlook is for the rivers of
central and western Upper Michigan.

...Flood Outlook Highlights...

The risk of flooding from late winter into spring is near to slightly
above normal. This being said, the flood risk is highly dependent on
short term conditions (such as rainfall and temperature trends),
which could lead to a much higher or lower flood risk.

...Flood Terminology...

The term minor flooding is used to indicate minimal or no property
damage. However, some public inconvenience is possible.

The term moderate flooding is used to indicate extensive inundation
of structures and roads. Significant evacuations of people and/or
transfer of property to higher elevations.

...Past Precipitation...

Fall precipitation was above normal while winter precipitation was
generally below normal. The snow pack has only seen some minor
melting since it was established in November. Therefore, current
observed snow water equivalent values of the snow pack are generally
higher than normal for this time of year.

...River Conditions...

Ice coverage is near or above normal due to below normal temperatures
so far this winter, including record cold temperatures for February.

...Soil Conditions and Frost Depths...

Soil moisture is above normal and the frost depth under snow pack is
generally between 3 And 10 inches under snow cover.

...Latest Snow Cover and Liquid Water Content...

   Location    Snow  Snow  Date   % of Normal
               Depth Water        (Where Applicable)

               Data in Inches
Far Western Upper Peninsula
   Ironwood    23    7.6   3/2
   Bessemer    24    4.4   2/24
Keweenaw Peninsula
   Lake Linden 21    5.5   3/3
   Calumet     27    6.6   2/23
Sturgeon River Basin
   Watton      20    3.1   3/1
   Covington   22    5.3   2/27   115%
   Nestoria    30    8.1   2/27   130%
Paint River Basin
   Net River   22    6.0   2/27   135%
   Amasa       20    5.3   2/27   135%
   Elmwood     19    4.6   2/27   110%
   Beechwood   20    4.9   2/27   130%
Menominee River Basin
   Stambaugh   14    2.6   3/2
   Iron River  19    4.6   2/27   125%
   Michigamme  19    5.3   2/27   150%
   Alpha       15    4.2   2/27   130%
   Brule       16    4.2   2/27   125%
   Twin Falls  15    3.2   2/27   100%
   Norway      14    2.4   3/2
Michigamme River Basin
   Nestoria    30    8.1   2/27   135%
   Peshekee    33   10.9   2/27   145%
   Champion    28    4.9   2/27    90%
   Republic    28    6.4   2/27   150%
North Central U.P. Basins
   Negaunee    33    7.7   3/4    135%
   Harvey      21    4.0   3/1
   Marquette    8    1.2   3/2
Ford River Basin
   Channing    23    5.7   2/27   155%
Manistique River Basin
   Gemini Lake 43    9.8   2/28

...Weather Outlook...

Short term temperature forecast shows temperatures reaching normal
values this weekend before increasing to above normal in the early to
middle part of next week, including expected high temperatures from
the upper 30s to mid 40s on tuesday.

The 6 to 10 day outlook calls for greater chances of above normal
temperatures and below normal precipitation. The 8 to 14 day outlook
calls for greater chances of above normal temperatures and above
normal precipitation. The 30 day outlook calls for greater chances of
below normal temperatures and equal chances of above...below or
normal precipitation.

...Flood Outlook Summary...

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  3/9/2015 - 6/7/2015

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Michigamme River
Witch Lake           9.0   10.0   12.0 :  12   27    7   15   <5   <5
:Paint River
Crystal Falls        7.0    8.0    9.5 :  23   12    6    6   <5   <5
:Black River
Bessemer            10.0   12.0   14.0 :   9   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Ontonagon River
Rockland            25.0   26.0   28.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Sturgeon River
Sidnaw              12.0   15.0   17.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Chocolay River
Harvey              10.0   11.5   13.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Middle Branch Escanaba River
Humboldt             6.5    8.0    9.0 :   6   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
:East Branch Escanaba River
Gwinn                7.0    9.0   12.0 :   6   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Sturgeon River
Alston               8.0   11.0   14.0 :  46   16   <5   <5   <5   <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 3/9/2015 - 6/7/2015
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Michigamme River
Witch Lake            6.0    6.2    6.7    7.3    8.2    9.4   10.6
:Paint River
Crystal Falls         4.9    5.1    5.5    6.0    6.8    7.6    8.5
:Black River
Bessemer              4.5    5.1    5.5    6.3    7.2    9.9   10.7
:Ontonagon River
Rockland             12.5   13.3   13.9   15.6   16.7   18.7   19.9
:Sturgeon River
Sidnaw                6.9    7.0    7.4    7.8    8.4    9.0    9.5
:Chocolay River
Harvey                5.5    5.7    6.7    7.4    8.0    8.9    9.5
:Middle Branch Escanaba River
Humboldt              4.5    4.7    4.9    5.3    5.8    6.3    6.9
:East Branch Escanaba River
Gwinn                 4.3    4.4    4.9    5.4    6.2    7.0    7.4
:Sturgeon River
Alston                6.7    6.9    7.3    7.9    8.5    9.4   10.0

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 3/9/2015 - 6/7/2015
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Michigamme River
Witch Lake            2.5    2.5    2.5    2.5    2.5    2.4    2.4
:Paint River
Crystal Falls         1.9    1.9    1.9    1.9    1.9    1.9    1.9
:Black River
Bessemer              0.8    0.8    0.8    0.8    0.8    0.8    0.7
:Ontonagon River
Rockland              6.0    6.0    6.0    6.0    6.0    5.7    5.6
:Sturgeon River
Sidnaw                4.0    4.0    4.0    3.9    3.9    3.9    3.9
:Chocolay River
Harvey                2.8    2.8    2.8    2.7    2.7    2.7    2.7
:Middle Branch Escanaba River
Humboldt              1.7    1.7    1.7    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6
:East Branch Escanaba River
Gwinn                 0.5    0.5    0.5    0.5    0.4    0.4    0.4
:Sturgeon River
Alston                3.8    3.8    3.7    3.7    3.7    3.7    3.7

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.

Visit our web site weather.gov/mqt for more weather and water
information.

The next outlook will be issued as needed prior to expected
significant snow melt.

$$

Titus




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