Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1200 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014 /1100 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014/

...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...

INTRODUCTION...

THIS IS THE 2014 SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN TENNESSEE FOR EAST
TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. THIS ISSUANCE OUTLINES CURRENT RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS AND HIGHLIGHTS POTENTIAL SITUATIONS THAT WOULD INDUCE
FLOODING OR EXACERBATE DROUGHT.

IN SUMMARY...THE 2014 SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS AVERAGE.

THE FOLLOWING SECTIONS DESCRIBE PAST AND CURRENT CONDITIONS AND
FUTURE EXPECTATIONS.


SNOW PACK...

VERY LITTLE SNOW PACK IS NOTED ACROSS THE AREA. THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
HAS NO SNOW. THE APPALACHIANS HAVE VERY LITTLE...MT LECONTE OBSERVED
A SNOW DEPTH OF ZERO WHILE SATELLITE INDICATES A MINOR SNOW PACK OF
LESS THAN 2 INCHES LINGERING OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF THE TENNESSEE...NORTH CAROLINA...AND VIRGINIA STATE
LINES.

A WINTER STORM ON MONDAY IMPACTED THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...WITH ICE
AND SNOW COVER COMBINING TO A COUPLE OF INCHES DEPTH OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF WISE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. BUT THE GREATEST
COMBINED ICE AND SNOW PACK WAS NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU...NAMELY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SCOTT AND CAMPBELL
COUNTIES IN TENNESSEE...NEAR THE KENTUCKY STATE LINE...WHERE 3 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW COVER HAS LINGERED IN SOME SPOTS. UP TO AN INCH OF
WATER EQUIVALENT IS CONTAINED IN THOSE RELATIVELY SMALL PORTIONS OF
SCOTT AND CAMPBELL COUNTIES. THOSE DRAINAGES FLOW NORTHWARD INTO
KENTUCKY...POSING LITTLE THREAT OF FLOODING IN TENNESSEE FROM
MELTING.


PRECIPITATION...

OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS...PRECIPITATION HAS GENERALLY RANGED FROM 125
PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLATEAU...TO 50 TO 75 PERCENT
OF NORMAL ALONG THE TENNESSEE AND NORTH CAROLINA STATE LINE. IN
BETWEEN...THE TENNESSEE VALLEY HAS RECEIVED 75 TO 100 PERCENT OF
NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

OVER THE PAST 60 DAYS...PRECIPITATION HAS GENERALLY RANGED FROM 80
TO 120 PERCENT OF NORMAL...EXCEPT A LITTLE DRIER ALONG AND WEST OF
THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS.


TEMPERATURES...

AFTER A MILD DECEMBER THAT RAN 1 TO 2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...JANUARY
WAS VERY COLD...BEING 6 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FEBRUARY WAS NOT
AS COLD...RUNNING 1 TO 2 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF
MARCH HAVE AVERAGED ON THE COOL SIDE. OVERALL...OUR TEMPERATURES FOR
THE PAST 90 DAYS HAVE AVERAGED ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.


DROUGHT...

NONE OF THE AREA IS CURRENTLY IN A DROUGHT DESIGNATED AREA.


SOIL MOISTURE...

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA THANKS TO
REGULAR PRECIPITATION EVENTS.


STREAMFLOWS...

RECENT PRECIPITATION EVENTS THAT HAVE FOCUSED ON THE NORTHERN
PLATEAU AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA HAVE PRODUCED ELEVATED STREAMFLOWS ON
THE HOLSTON...CLINCH...POWELL...AND EMORY RIVERS. STREAMFLOWS ON
THESE RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY ABOVE OR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

SPECIFICALLY...IN THE HEADWATER AREAS IN VIRGINIA...THE UPPER CLINCH
AND UPPER HOLSTON BASIN STREAMFLOWS ARE ABOVE NORMAL. ACROSS THE
LOWER CLINCH AND POWELL BASINS OF TENNESSEE...STREAMFLOWS ARE
CURRENTLY MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. FOR THE RIVERS WHOSE HEADWATER AREAS
ARE IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...THE FRENCH BROAD...UPPER PIGEON...
LITTLE TENNESSEE AND HIWASSEE RIVERS...STREAMFLOWS ARE NEAR NORMAL.

THE ELEVATED STREAMFLOWS ARE NOT UNUSUAL FOLLOWING A NOTABLE
PRECIPITATION EVENT...AND THOSE RIVERS WILL RETURN TO A NEAR NORMAL
STREAMFLOW CONDITION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF DAILY NORMAL ARE GIVEN FOR RIVER POINTS
IN...OR IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM FROM...OUR HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

RIVER...                        LOCATION...    3/5/14
N FORK HOLSTON RIVER           SALTVILLE VA     129%
MID FORK HOLSTON RIVER   SEVEN MILE FORD VA     176%
CLINCH RIVER                   CLEVELAND VA     145%
CLINCH RIVER                    TAZEWELL TN     180%
POWELL RIVER                      ARTHUR TN     232%
EMORY RIVER                      OAKDALE TN     242%
PIGEON RIVER                       HEPCO NC      92%
FRENCH BROAD RIVER             ASHEVILLE NC      97%


TENNESSEE RIVER BASIN RESERVOIR LEVELS...

THE PERCENT OF AVAILABLE FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE FOR RESERVOIRS IN THE
TENNESSEE BASIN ABOVE CHATTANOOGA IS 100 PERCENT.


METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK...

THE WEEK TWO OUTLOOK FOR DAYS 8 TO 14 SHOWS HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR
COLDER TEMPERATURES...BUT NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH SHOWS NO DISCERNIBLE
TRENDS FOR THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST...MEANING THAT
THERE ARE ALMOST EQUAL CHANCES THAT WE WILL BE EITHER ABOVE
NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...OR BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONGER TERM CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR THE 3 MONTH PERIOD OF MARCH
THROUGH MAY ALSO INDICATES NO DISCERNIBLE TREND FOR THE TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST...OR...VIRTUALLY EQUAL CHANCES THAT
THINGS COULD TURN OUT ABOVE...NEAR...OR BELOW NORMAL.


THE 2014 SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...

BASED ON ALL OF THE ABOVE CONSIDERATIONS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL
IS EXPECTED FOR THE EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA... AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA BASINS.


ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THIS OUTLOOK WAS CREATED WITH INPUT FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FORECAST CENTER...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY...STATE AND COUNTY OFFICIALS...AND
VARIOUS COOPERATIVE WEATHER SPOTTERS. FOR MORE INFORMATION THE
FOLLOWING WEBSITES ARE USEFUL:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MORRISTOWN
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LMRFC
WWW.WATERDATA.USGS.GOV
WWW.TVA.GOV
WWW.TENNESSEE.GOV/ENVIRONMENT
WWW.DEQ.VIRGINIA.GOV
WWW.NCWATER.ORG
DROUGHT.UNL.EDU
WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


YOU MAY ALSO CONTACT...

FOR GENERAL WEATHER INFORMATION OR FORECASTS...CALL 423-586-3771

FOR INFORMATION RELATED TO THIS OUTLOOK CONTACT...

GLENN CARRIN, SERVICE HYDROLOGIST, 423-586-3771
GEORGE MATHEWS, METEOROLOGIST IN CHARGE
423-586-1964 MEDIA ONLY PLEASE

OR WRITE GLENN.CARRIN@NOAA.GOV AND GEORGE.MATHEWS@NOAA.GOV

$$

GDC






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