Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FGUS71 KOKX 161935
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CTC001-007-009-011-NJC003-013-017-031-039-NYC005-047-059-061-071-079-
081-085-087-103-119-022000-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
232 PM EST THU FEB 16 2017

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

THIS IS THE THIRD WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IN A SERIES
OF ROUTINE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL STATEMENTS INTENDED TO
PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO THE LIKELIHOOD OF RIVER FLOODING (NOT FLASH
FLOODING)OVER THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...NORTHEASTERN NEW
JERSEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND.

THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF HYDRO-
METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER FLOODING. THESE
FACTORS INCLUDE RECENT PRECIPITATION...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER
AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...RIVER ICE...STREAM-FLOW...FUTURE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...AND OTHERS. THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS THE SEVERITY
OF ANY FUTURE RIVER FLOODING.

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FROM
FEBRUARY 21ST THROUGH THE 25TH SUGGESTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.
THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FROM FEBRUARY 23RD THROUGH MARCH 1ST
SUGGESTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR WHICH LEADS TO RIVER FLOODING.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY CAUSE RIVER
FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR...EVEN WHEN OVERALL RIVER FLOOD
POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW OR BELOW NORMAL.

CURRENT FLOODING - NONE.

PRECIPITATION - YEAR TO DATE...PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES HAVE BEEN
NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND AND
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.

RIVER FLOWS - ACROSS THE LOCAL HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...FLOWS
ACROSS AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. REAL-TIME
WATER DATA CAN BE FOUND BY VISITING THE USGS AT WWW.USGS.GOV/WATER.

SOIL MOISTURE - NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL. RECENT RAINFALL AND
SNOW MELT CONTINUED TO PUT A DENT IN THE LONG TERM DROUGHT ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. SOIL MOISTURE AND DROUGHT RELATED DATA AND CHARTS
CAN BE SEEN AT: WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND WWW.DROUGHT.GOV.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY
WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM ARE AROUND 11 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL.
RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS THE COMBINED 13 NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY
RESERVOIRS ARE NEAR NORMAL.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - DURING THE TWO WEEKS OF THIS OUTLOOK
PERIOD EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.

FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT:
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/WATER/TEXTPRODS/VIEW.PHP?WFO=OKX&PROD=ESF.

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON
THURSDAY MARCH 2ND, 2017.

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