Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1105 AM EDT THU MAR 16 2017

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

THIS IS THE FIFTH WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IN A SERIES
OF ROUTINE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL STATEMENTS INTENDED TO
PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO THE LIKELIHOOD OF RIVER FLOODING (NOT FLASH
FLOODING)OVER THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...NORTHEASTERN NEW
JERSEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND.

THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF HYDRO-
METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER FLOODING. THESE
FACTORS INCLUDE RECENT PRECIPITATION...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER
AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...RIVER ICE...STREAM-FLOW...FUTURE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...AND OTHERS. THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS THE SEVERITY
OF ANY FUTURE RIVER FLOODING.

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FROM
MARCH 21ST THROUGH THE 25TH SUGGESTS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. THE 8
TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FROM MARCH 23RD THROUGH THE 29TH SUGGESTS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR WHICH LEADS TO RIVER FLOODING.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY CAUSE RIVER
FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR...EVEN WHEN OVERALL RIVER FLOOD
POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW OR BELOW NORMAL.

CURRENT FLOODING - NONE.

PRECIPITATION - YEAR TO DATE...PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES HAVE BEEN
NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...NORTHEAST NEW
JERSEY AND THE NEW YORK CITY 5 BOROUGHS. PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND LONG ISLAND HAVE BEEN ONE TO
THREE INCHES BELOW NORMAL.

SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT - ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY SNOW
DEPTH WERE BETWEEN 6 TO 16 INCHES WITH SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES
OF 2 TO 3 INCHES. ACROSS LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY IN NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD AND NORTHERN NEW HAVEN COUNTIES IN CONNECTICUT
SNOW DEPTH WERE BETWEEN 10 TO 24 INCHES WITH SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT
VALUES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. ACROSS NEW YORK CITY METRO...SOUTH SHORE
CONNECTICUT COAST AND NASSAU COUNTY ON LONG ISLAND SNOW DEPTH WERE
BETWEEN 4 TO 10 INCHES WITH SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES OF LESS
THAN 2 INCHES. ACROSS SUFFOLK COUNTY ON LONG ISLAND SNOW DEPTH WAS
BETWEEN A TRACE TO AN INCH WITH SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS VALUES OF
LESS THAN AN INCH.

RIVER FLOWS - ACROSS THE LOCAL HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...FLOWS
ACROSS AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL. REAL-TIME
WATER DATA CAN BE FOUND BY VISITING THE USGS AT WWW.USGS.GOV/WATER.

SOIL MOISTURE - NEAR NORMAL. SOIL MOISTURE AND DROUGHT RELATED DATA
AND CHARTS CAN BE SEEN AT: WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND WWW.DROUGHT.GOV.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY
WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM WERE NORMAL. RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS THE
COMBINED 13 NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY RESERVOIRS ARE 7 PERCENT BELOW
NORMAL.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - DURING THE TWO WEEKS OF THIS OUTLOOK
PERIOD EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.

FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT:
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/WATER/TEXTPRODS/VIEW.PHP?WFO=OKX&PROD=ESF.

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON
THURSDAY MARCH 30TH, 2017.

$$



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