Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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CTC001-007-009-011-NJC003-013-017-031-039-NYC005-047-059-061-071-
079-081-085-087-103-119-021600-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1045 AM EST THU JAN 19 2017

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

THIS IS THE FIRST WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IN A SERIES
OF ROUTINE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL STATEMENTS INTENDED TO
PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO THE LIKELIHOOD OF RIVER FLOODING (NOT FLASH
FLOODING)OVER THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...NORTHEASTERN
NEWJERSEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND.

THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF HYDRO-
METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER FLOODING. THESE
FACTORS INCLUDE RECENT PRECIPITATION...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER
AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...RIVER ICE...STREAM-FLOW...FUTURE
WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND OTHERS. THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS
THE SEVERITY OF ANY FUTURE RIVER FLOODING.

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FROM
JANUARY 24TH THROUGH THE 28TH SUGGESTS ABOVE TEMPERATURES AND
ABOVENORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. THE 8
TO 14DAY OUTLOOK FROM JANUARY 26TH THROUGH FEBRUARY 1ST SUGGESTS
NORMALTO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THEHYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR WHICH LEADS TO RIVER
FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY
CAUSE RIVER FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR...EVEN WHEN OVERALL
RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW OR BELOW NORMAL.

CURRENT FLOODING - NONE.

PRECIPITATION - FOR THE LAST 30 DAYS...PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES HAVE
BEEN NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
RIVERVALLEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND
ANDBELOW NORMAL ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.

RIVER FLOWS - ACROSS THE LOCAL HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...FLOWS
ACROSS AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL. REAL-
TIMEWATER DATA CAN BE FOUND BY VISITING THE USGS AT
WWW.USGS.GOV/WATER.

SOIL MOISTURE - NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL. RECENT RAINFALL AND
SNOWMELT HAVE PUT A DENT IN THE LONG TERM DROUGHT ACROSS THE
LOCALAREA. SOIL MOISTURE AND DROUGHT RELATED DATA AND CHARTS CAN BE
SEENAT: WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND WWW.DROUGHT.GOV.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY
WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM ARE AROUND 15 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL.
RESERVOIRLEVELS ACROSS THE COMBINED 13 NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY
RESERVOIRS AREAROUND 10 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - DURING THE TWO WEEKS OF THIS OUTLOOK
PERIOD EXPECT AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO BE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
WITH NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT:
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/WATER/TEXTPRODS/VIEW.PHP?WFO=OKX&PROD=ESF.

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON
THURSDAY FEBRUARY 2ND, 2017.

$$



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