Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1041 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

|THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL OVER THE OHIO RIVER BASIN.|

|A NEAR NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL MEANS OCCASIONAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR
WITH WATER LEVELS HAVING MINOR IMPACTS.

FOR THE LONG-RANGE RIVER OUTLOOKS AND THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING FLOODSTAGE OR THE CHANCES OF FLOODING RELATIVE TO NORMAL
AT SPECIFIC FORECAST POINTS DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS...REFER TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OHRFC AND CLICK ON THE 90-DAY RIVER OUTLOOK ON THE
LEFT HAND SIDE OF THE PAGE. CLICK ON FLOOD CHC VS NORMAL TO VIEW
THE RISK OF FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL.

FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED BI-WEEKLY BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DURING WINTER AND EARLY SPRING TO SUMMARIZE BASIN
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINTER/SPRING FLOODING. THE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON CURRENT AND
FORECAST CONDITIONS DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

IN ADDITION...A 90-DAY WATER RESOURCE OUTLOOK IS ISSUED MONTHLY.

FACTORS CONSIDERED IN ASSESSING FLOOD POTENTIAL ARE (1) ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS (2) PAST PRECIPITATION (3) RECENT STREAMFLOWS AND
RESERVOIR LEVELS (4) SOIL MOISTURE (5) WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOW
PACK (6) ICE CONDITIONS ON THE RIVERS AND (7) FUTURE PRECIPITATION.

METEOROLOGICALLY...THE PREVAILING STORM TRACK DURING THE WINTER
2015/16 WILL RESEMBLE AN EL NINO SIGNATURE ACROSS THE U.S...WITH
STORM SYSTEMS HITTING THE WEST COAST...THEN MOVING ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH BEFORE CURVING UP THE EAST COAST OR OUT INTO THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC BASIN. THE LACK OF PHASING OF THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAMS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION EVENTS
IN THE OHIO VALLEY/LAKE ERIE DRAINAGE.

SINCE THE START OF THE NEW YEAR...PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN GENERALLY
75 PERCENT OF NORMAL PRODUCING SOILS WHICH ARE NORMALLY MOIST.

THE CURRENT STORM SYSTEM WILL INCREASE STREAMFLOWS ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER BASIN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT ONLY
MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK/SUMMARY...

AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK WILL PREDOMINANTLY SKIRT THE OHIO RIVER BASIN
THIS WINTER/EARLY SPRING. OCCASIONALLY...PHASING OF THE SUBTROPICAL
AND POLAR JET STREAMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE OHIO VALLEY PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING. HOWEVER...MOST STORM SYSTEMS
MOVING THRU THE OHIO RIVER BASIN WILL LACK THIS PHASING COMPONENT
NECESSARY FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
DRAINAGE.

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY
19 FEBRUARY 2016.|

$$



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