Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1
000
FGUS71 KPBZ 021536
ESFPBZ
MDC023-OHC013-019-029-031-059-067-081-111-119-121-157-PAC003-005-
007-019-031-051-053-059-063-065-073-085-121-125-129-WVC009-029-
049-051-061-069-077-093-103-161545-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1136 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

...THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE OHIO RIVER...

AN ABOVE NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL MEANS WIDESPREAD FLOODING COULD
OCCUR WITH WATER LEVELS HAVING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED BI-WEEKLY BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DURING WINTER AND EARLY SPRING TO SUMMARIZE BASIN
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINTER/SPRING FLOODING. THE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON CURRENT AND
FORECAST CONDITIONS DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

IN ADDITION...A 90-DAY WATER RESOURCE OUTLOOK IS ISSUED MONTHLY.
FOR THE LONG-RANGE RIVER OUTLOOKS AND THE PROBABLITY OF EXCEEDING
FLOODSTAGE OR THE CHANCES OF FLOODING RELATIVE TO NORMAL AT SPECIFIC
FORECAST POINTS DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS...REFER TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OHRFC AND CLICK ON THE 90-DAY RIVER OUTLOOK ON THE
LEFT HAND SIDE OF THE PAGE. CLICK ON FLOOD CHC VS NORMAL TO VIEW THE
RISK OF FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL.

FACTORS TO CONSIDER WHEN ASSESSING FLOOD POTENTIAL THIS TIME OF YEAR
ARE CURRENT RIVER AND RESERVOIR LEVELS...SNOW PACK DEPTH AND WATER
CONTENT...ICE COVERAGE ON AREA RIVERS AND THE LAKE...SOIL
MOISTURE...AND WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

..OVERVIEW...
THE PREVAILING STORM TRACK DURING WINTER 2014/15 RESEMBLED AN EL
NINO SIGNATURE ACROSS THE U.S....PREDICTED SINCE THE SUMMER OF
2014...WITH STORM SYSTEMS HITTING THE WEST COAST...THEN MOVING
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH BEFORE CURVING UP THE EAST COAST OR OUT INTO
THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC BASIN. THE LACK OF PHASING OF THE POLAR
AND SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMS RESULTED IN MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION EVENTS IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL WINTER 2015...TEMPERATURES IN THE OHIO VALLEY
WERE BELOW NORMAL...AND PRECIPITATION AVERAGED SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY HAVING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.


...CURRENT RIVER AND RESERVOIR LEVELS...
STREAMFLOWS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR NORMAL IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION ARE GENERALLY 5 PERCENT OR LESS.
FOUR LOCATIONS HAVE FLOOD CAPACITY USEAGE OF UP TO 19 PERCENT.

...SOIL MOISTURE...
SOILS ARE NORMALLY MOIST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER BASIN.

...PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE NEAR NORMAL OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER`S
8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS SUGGESTS NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.

...LONG TERM OUTLOOKS...
THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS BROKEN THE EL NINO SIGNATURE PERSISTING THIS
PAST WINTER. FOR THE OHIO VALLEY AND LAKE ERIE DRAINAGE...MILDER
TEMPERATURES ALSO WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A MORE ACTIVE STORM TRACK
THIS SPRING WITH OCCASSIONAL PHASING OF THE SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR
JET STREAMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN EVENTS.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
THE RESULTING STREAMFLOWS WILL AVERAGE ABOVE
NORMAL...AND WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH WATER LEVELS
HAVING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY
APRIL 17 2015.

$$







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.