Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS

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MDC023-OHC013-019-029-031-059-067-081-111-119-121-157-PAC003-005-
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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1242 PM EST THU FEB 19 2015

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

|...THE FLOODING RISK ACROSS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...EASTERN
OHIO...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN MARYLAND NEAR NORMAL...

A NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL MEANS OCCASIONAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR WITH
WATER LEVELS HAVING MINOR IMPACTS.

FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED BIWEEKLY DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING TO
SUMMARIZE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
ACROSS THE REGION.

FACTORS TO CONSIDER WHEN ASSESSING FLOOD POTENTIAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE CURRENT RIVER AND RESERVOIR LEVELS...SNOW PACK DEPTH AND
WATER CONTENT...ICE COVERAGE ON AREA RIVERS AND THE LAKE...SOIL
MOISTURE...AND WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

..OVERVIEW...
FREQUENT PASSAGE OF RELATIVELY WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY HAS CONTINUALLY REINFORCED THE COLD
AIR IN THE OHIO VALLEY SINCE THE BEGINNING OF 2015 KEEPING
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF FEBRUARY. THESE
FRIGID TEMPERATURES HAVE RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT ICE FORMATION
WITHIN THE ALLEGHENY RIVER BASIN...WITH ADDITIONAL ICE COVERAGE ON
THE MONONGAHELA AND OHIO RIVER BASINS WITHIN THE LAST TWO WEEKS. IN
ADDITION TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES...THESE CLIPPERS HAVE PRODUCED
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

..CURRENT RIVER AND RESERVOIR LEVELS...
MONTHLY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS ARE NEAR NORMAL NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
BASIN AND BELOW NORMAL SOUTH OF THE MAINSTEM. MOST RESERVOIR LEVELS
IN THE REGION ARE AT NORMAL WINTER POOL LEVELS. RESERVOIR STORAGE
RANGES FROM 1 TO 6 PERCENT AT THIS TIME. GROUND WATER LEVELS ARE
NEAR NORMAL. WATER SUPPLY SHORTAGES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

...SNOW AND ICE COVERAGE...
A DEEP SNOW PACK EXISTS ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO...NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA AND THE PENNSYLVANIA MOUNTAINS. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS
RANGE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES.

ICE ACCUMULATION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE ALLEGHENY RIVER BASIN WITH
ICE RANGING FROM 24 TO 72 INCHES IN THICKNESS. ICE HAS ALSO FORMED
IN A NUMBER OF SMALLER BASINS AS WELL.

...SOIL MOISTURE...
SOILS MOISTURE LEVELS ARE NORMAL IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

...PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER`S
8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS SUGGESTS NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.

...LONG TERM OUTLOOKS...
ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN AN EL NINO PATTERN
THROUGH MID WINTER. FOR THE OHIO VALLEY...THE STORM TRACK WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...THEN CURVE UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OR OUT INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC BASIN. ASIDE FROM AN
OCCASIONAL SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT...MAINLY MINOR
PRECIPITATION EVENTS WILL OCCUR IN THE OHIO VALLEY DUE TO LACK OF
PHASING OF THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMS.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
BASED ON THE ABOVE INFORMATION...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL
OVER THE NEXT 2 WEEKS IS NEAR NORMAL. IN THE LONG TERM...THE FLOOD
POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL.

FOR THE LONG-RANGE RIVER OUTLOOKS AND THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE OR THE CHANCES OF FLOODING RELATIVE TO
NORMAL AT SPECIFIC FORECAST POINTS DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS...
REFER TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OHRFC AND CLICK ON THE 90-DAY RIVER
OUTLOOK ON THE LEFT HAND SIDE OF THE PAGE. CLICK ON FLOOD CHC VS
NORMAL TO VIEW THE RISK OF FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL.

THE RESULTING STREAMFLOWS WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL WITH OCCASIONAL
ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE IN THE OHIO RIVER BASIN/LAKE ERIE
DRAINAGE.

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY
MARCH 5 2015.

$$








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