Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FGUS71 KPHI 222100
ESFPHI
DEC001-003-005-MDC011-015-029-035-041-NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-
019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-037-041-PAC011-017-025-029-045-
077-089-091-095-101-052130-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
400 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...NUMBER 2

THIS IS THE SECOND IN A SERIES OF ANNUAL WINTER/SPRING FLOOD
POTENTIAL STATEMENTS INTENDED TO PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO THE LIKELIHOOD
OF RIVER FLOODING (NOT FLASH FLOODING) OVER THE MIDDLE/LOWER
DELAWARE, LEHIGH, SCHUYLKILL, PASSAIC AND RARITAN RIVER BASINS.
THESE STATEMENTS WILL PROVIDE INFORMATION ON FLOOD THREAT CONDITIONS
SUCH AS RECENT PRECIPITATION, SOIL MOISTURE, SNOW COVER AND ITS
WATER EQUIVALENT, RIVER ICE CONDITIONS, STREAMFLOW, FUTURE
PRECIPITATION AND OTHERS.

THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS THE SEVERITY OR EXTENT OF ANY FUTURE
RIVER FLOODING.

IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR
WHICH LEADS TO RIVER FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY
RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY CAUSE RIVER FLOODING ANY TIME OF YEAR, EVEN
WHEN THE OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED TO BE LOW.

THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FOR THE TWO-WEEK PERIOD, JANUARY 22 THROUGH
FEBRUARY 5, 2015.

IN THE MOUNT HOLLY, NEW JERSEY HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA), THE
OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS IS NORMAL.

NOTE - FOR THE HEADWATERS OF THE DELAWARE RIVER, SEE THE STATEMENT
(FGUS71 KBGM ESFBGM) FROM OUR BINGHAMTON (BGM), NEW YORK OFFICE.

CURRENT FLOODING - NONE.

RECENT PRECIPITATION - BELOW NORMAL TO NORMAL. BETWEEN 2.0 AND 5.0
INCHES OF LIQUID HAS BEEN RECORDED OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS.
PRECIPITATION DEPARTURE MAPS CAN BE FOUND AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MARFC (UNDER THE WATER SUPPLY TAB).

SNOW COVER - BELOW NORMAL. AN INCH OR SO CAN BE FOUND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION, BUT IT IS CONSIDERED INSIGNIFICANT. SNOW
DEPTH AND BASIN-AVERAGE WATER EQUIVALENT ESTIMATES CAN BE FOUND AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MARFC (UNDER THE SEASONAL INTEREST TAB) OR
WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV (UNDER THE NATIONAL ANALYSES TAB).

RIVER ICE - NORMAL. ICE HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT OVER THE LAST TWO
WEEKS, BUT WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, AN INCREASE
IS ANTICIPATED.

STREAMFLOW - NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. REAL TIME WATER DATA IS
AVAILABLE FROM THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY BY VISITING
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV.

SOIL MOISTURE - NORMAL. SOIL MOISTURE MONITORING CHARTS FROM NOAA`S
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAN BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEBSITES...
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/SOILMST_MONITORING/US/SOILMST/SOILMST.
SHTML AS WELL AS WWW.DROUGHT.GOV.

GROUND WATER - USGS MONITORING WELLS INDICATE THAT CURRENT GROUND
WATER LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION ARE VARIABLE, RANGING FROM NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT
HTTP://GROUNDWATERWATCH.USGS.GOV.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - WATER SUPPLY AND FLOOD CONTROL RESERVOIRS IN
THE AREA ARE RUNNING NEAR NORMAL TO NORMAL.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE DEEP SOUTH FRIDAY AND TRACK UP
THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION, MIXED IN FORM. IF THE
EVENTUAL STORM TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE COAST, RATHER THAN FURTHER
OFFSHORE, NEW JERSEY COULD SEE SOME HEAVIER RAINS IN EXCESS ON AN
INCH. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY
BEHIND THE COASTAL LOW. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
FOR LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. FROZEN
PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM. AN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL AFFECT THE AREA FROM NEXT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. PLEASE VISIT WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.

ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) - NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. ANOTHER TOOL USED TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINTER/SPRING FLOODING IS CALLED AHPS, ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE. ONE COMPONENT OF AHPS IS THE GENERATION OF
PROBABILISTIC RIVER FORECASTS BASED ON CURRENT BASIN CONDITIONS
(RIVER LEVELS, SOIL MOISTURE, EXTENT AND CONDITION OF SNOWPACK)
ALONG WITH 50 YEARS OF HISTORIC TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DATA.

FOR THIS OUTLOOK, THE AHPS TECHNIQUE HAS BEEN APPLIED TO THE
DELAWARE, PASSAIC AND RARITAN RIVER SYSTEMS. FOURTEEN DAY
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS GENERATED FOR THESE BASINS SHOW THAT THE
LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING IS NEAR NORMAL COMPARED TO WHAT HAS BEEN
HISTORICALLY OBSERVED. PLEASE VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT AHPS PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS DO NOT TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT FUTURE PRECIPITATION.

SUMMARY - TAKING ALL OF THE INCLUDED VARIABLES INTO CONSIDERATION,
THE OVERALL FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS IS NORMAL.

FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI

$$

SUMMARY/OVERVIEW OF FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH FEBRUARY 5, 2015:

OVERALL FLOOD POTENTIAL...NORMAL
CURRENT FLOODING...NONE
RECENT PRECIPITATION...BELOW NORMAL TO NORMAL
SNOW COVER...BELOW NORMAL
RIVER ICE...NORMAL
STREAMFLOW...NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
SOIL MOISTURE...NORMAL
GROUND WATER...NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
RESERVOIR CONDITIONS...NEAR NORMAL TO NORMAL
AHPS...NEAR NORMAL

$$

KRUZDLO








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