Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FGUS71 KPHI 032001
ESFPHI
DEC001-003-005-MDC011-015-029-035-041-NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-
019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-037-041-PAC011-017-025-029-045-
077-089-091-095-101-172130-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
400 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014

...LAST OUTLOOK UNTIL NEXT SEASON...

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...NUMBER 7

THIS IS THE SEVENTH IN A SERIES OF ANNUAL WINTER/SPRING FLOOD
POTENTIAL STATEMENTS INTENDED TO PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO THE LIKELIHOOD
OF RIVER FLOODING (NOT FLASH FLOODING) OVER THE MIDDLE/LOWER
DELAWARE, LEHIGH, SCHUYLKILL, PASSAIC AND RARITAN RIVER BASINS.
THESE STATEMENTS WILL PROVIDE INFORMATION ON FLOOD THREAT CONDITIONS
SUCH AS RECENT PRECIPITATION, SOIL MOISTURE, SNOW COVER AND ITS
WATER EQUIVALENT, RIVER ICE CONDITIONS, STREAMFLOW, FUTURE
PRECIPITATION AND OTHERS.

THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS THE SEVERITY OR EXTENT OF ANY FUTURE
RIVER FLOODING.

IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR
WHICH LEADS TO RIVER FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY
RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY CAUSE RIVER FLOODING ANY TIME OF YEAR, EVEN
WHEN THE OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED TO BE LOW.

THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FOR THE TWO-WEEK PERIOD, APRIL 3-17, 2014.

IN THE MOUNT HOLLY, NEW JERSEY HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA), THE
OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS IS NORMAL.

NOTE - FOR THE HEADWATERS OF THE DELAWARE RIVER, SEE THE STATEMENT
(FGUS71 KBGM ESFBGM) FROM OUR BINGHAMTON (BGM), NEW YORK OFFICE.

CURRENT FLOODING - NONE.

RECENT PRECIPITATION - BELOW NORMAL TO NORMAL. BETWEEN 2.5 AND 4.0
INCHES OF LIQUID HAS BEEN RECORDED OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS.
PRECIPITATION DEPARTURE MAPS CAN BE FOUND AT
WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/MARFC.

SNOW COVER - NORMAL. A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE FOUND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIAN AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK, BUT IT
IS CONSIDERED INSIGNIFICANT. SNOW DEPTH AND BASIN-AVERAGE WATER
EQUIVALENT ESTIMATES CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/MARFC OR
WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV.

RIVER ICE - NORMAL. ALL THE RIVER ICE IN OUR AREA HAS DECAYED AND/OR
MELTED.

STREAMFLOW - NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. REAL TIME WATER DATA
IS AVAILABLE FROM THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY BY VISITING
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV.

SOIL MOISTURE - NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SOIL MOISTURE
MONITORING CHARTS FROM NOAA`S CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAN BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEBSITES...
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/SOILMST_MONITORING/US/SOILMST/SOILMST.
SHTML AS WELL AS WWW.DROUGHT.GOV.

GROUND WATER - MONITORING WELLS INDICATE THAT CURRENT GROUND WATER
LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION ARE NORMAL.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - ALL WATER SUPPLY AND FLOOD CONTROL RESERVOIRS
IN THE AREA ARE NEAR NORMAL.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, LIFTING A WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY AN OCCLUDING COLD FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AFFECT THE REGION LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. PLEASE VISIT WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.

ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) - NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. ANOTHER TOOL USED TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER/SPRING
FLOODING IS CALLED AHPS, ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE. ONE
COMPONENT OF AHPS IS THE GENERATION OF PROBABILISTIC RIVER FORECASTS
BASED ON CURRENT BASIN CONDITIONS (RIVER LEVELS, SOIL MOISTURE,
EXTENT AND CONDITION OF SNOWPACK) ALONG WITH 50 YEARS OF HISTORIC
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DATA.

FOR THIS OUTLOOK, THE AHPS TECHNIQUE HAS BEEN APPLIED TO THE
DELAWARE, PASSAIC AND RARITAN RIVER SYSTEMS. FOURTEEN DAY
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS GENERATED FOR THESE BASINS SHOW THAT THE
LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING IS NORMAL COMPARED TO WHAT HAS BEEN
HISTORICALLY OBSERVED.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT AHPS PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS DO NOT TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT FUTURE PRECIPITATION.

SUMMARY - TAKING ALL OF THE INCLUDED VARIABLES INTO CONSIDERATION,
THE OVERALL FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS IS NORMAL.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST OUTLOOK UNTIL NEXT SEASON.

FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI

$$

SUMMARY/OVERVIEW OF FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH APRIL 17, 2014:

OVERALL FLOOD POTENTIAL...NORMAL
CURRENT FLOODING...NONE
RECENT PRECIPITATION...BELOW NORMAL TO NORMAL
SNOW COVER...NORMAL
RIVER ICE...NORMAL
STREAMFLOW...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
SOIL MOISTURE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
GROUND WATER...NORMAL
RESERVOIR CONDITIONS...NORMAL
AHPS...NORMAL

$$

KRUZDLO





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