Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FGUS71 KPHI 161924
ESFPHI
DEC001-003-005-MDC011-015-029-035-041-NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-
019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-037-041-PAC011-017-025-029-045-
077-089-091-095-101-022130-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
219 PM EST THU FEB 16 2017

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...NUMBER 4

THIS IS THE FORTH IN A SERIES OF ANNUAL WINTER/SPRING FLOOD
POTENTIAL STATEMENTS INTENDED TO PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO THE LIKELIHOOD
OF RIVER FLOODING (NOT FLASH FLOODING) OVER THE MIDDLE/LOWER
DELAWARE, LEHIGH, SCHUYLKILL, PASSAIC AND RARITAN RIVER BASINS.
THESE STATEMENTS WILL PROVIDE INFORMATION ON FLOOD THREAT CONDITIONS
SUCH AS RECENT PRECIPITATION, SOIL MOISTURE, SNOW COVER AND ITS
WATER EQUIVALENT, RIVER ICE CONDITIONS, STREAMFLOW, FUTURE
PRECIPITATION AND OTHERS.

THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS THE SEVERITY OR EXTENT OF ANY FUTURE
RIVER FLOODING.

IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR
WHICH LEADS TO RIVER FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY
RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY CAUSE RIVER FLOODING ANY TIME OF YEAR, EVEN
WHEN THE OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED TO BE LOW.

THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FROM FEBRUARY 16 TO MARCH 2, 2017.

IN THE MOUNT HOLLY, NEW JERSEY HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA), THE
OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF
THIS OUTLOOK (THROUGH FEBRUARY 23RD) AND ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE SECOND
WEEK.

NOTE - FOR THE HEADWATERS OF THE DELAWARE RIVER, SEE THE STATEMENT
(FGUS71 KBGM ESFBGM) FROM OUR BINGHAMTON (BGM), NEW YORK OFFICE.

CURRENT FLOODING - NONE.

RECENT PRECIPITATION - VARIABLE. BELOW NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL.
BETWEEN 2.0 AND 4.0 INCHES OF LIQUID HAVE BEEN RECORDED OVER THE
LAST 30 DAYS. PRECIPITATION DEPARTURE MAPS CAN BE FOUND AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MARFC (UNDER THE WATER SUPPLY TAB).

SNOW COVER - ABOUT NORMAL. SNOW UP TO SIX INCHES IS BEING MEASURED
FROM ABOUT I-78 NORTHWARD. WATER EQUIVALENT ACROSS THIS SNOWPACK IS
UP TO 1.5 INCHES. DEPTH AND BASIN-AVERAGE WATER EQUIVALENT ESTIMATES
CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MARFC (UNDER THE SEASONAL INTEREST
TAB) OR WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV (UNDER THE NATIONAL ANALYSIS TAB).

RIVER ICE - BELOW NORMAL. LITTLE IF ANY ICE IS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS
THE HSA.

STREAMFLOW - VARIABLE, MUCH BELOW NORMAL TO NORMAL. REAL TIME WATER
DATA IS AVAILABLE FROM THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY BY
VISITING HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV.

SOIL MOISTURE - NORMAL. SOIL MOISTURE MONITORING CHARTS (LONG-TERM
PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX) FROM NOAA`S CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
CAN BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEBSITES...
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/ANALYSIS_MONITORING/REGIONAL_
MONITORING/PALMER.GIF AS WELL AS WWW.DROUGHT.GOV.

GROUND WATER - USGS MONITORING WELLS INDICATE THAT CURRENT GROUND
WATER LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION ARE VARIABLE, RANGING FROM BELOW
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT
HTTP://GROUNDWATERWATCH.USGS.GOV.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - WATER SUPPLY AND FLOOD CONTROL RESERVOIRS IN
THE AREA ARE RUNNING NORMAL.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, POTENTIALLY PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY. THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.

SUMMARY - TAKING ALL OF THE INCLUDED VARIABLES INTO CONSIDERATION,
THE OVERALL FLOOD POTENTIAL IS BELOW NORMAL DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
THIS OUTLOOK AND ABOUT NORMAL DURING THE SECOND WEEK.

FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI

$$

SUMMARY/OVERVIEW OF FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH MARCH 2, 2017:

OVERALL FLOOD POTENTIAL...BELOW NORMAL WEEK ONE, ABOUT NORMAL WEEK
                          TWO
FLOODING...NONE
RECENT PRECIPITATION...BELOW NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
SNOW COVER...ABOUT NORMAL
RIVER ICE...BELOW NORMAL
STREAMFLOW...MUCH BELOW NORMAL TO NORMAL
SOIL MOISTURE...NORMAL
GROUND WATER...BELOW NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
RESERVOIR CONDITIONS...NORMAL

$$

KRUZDLO



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