Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Portland, OR

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WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
415 PM PST TUE JUNE 10 2014

...OREGON WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK AS OF JUNE 10TH 2014...

THE OREGON WATER SUPPLY FOR THE SPRING AND SUMMER IS FORECAST TO BE
BELOW-NORMAL FOR MOST OF OREGON...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND EAST-
CENTRAL BASINS...WHERE SIGNIFICANT DROUGHT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
SUMMER. NEAR-NORMAL WATER SUPPLY IS FORECAST FOR BASINS IN
APPROXIMATELY THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE. WATER SUPPLY
FORECASTS ARE BASED ON CURRENT SNOWPACK CONDITIONS AND OBSERVED
PRECIPITATION AND STREAMFLOW THUS FAR THIS WATER YEAR...WHICH
STARTED OCTOBER 1 2013.

MAY PRECIPITATION WAS BELOW-NORMAL FOR MOST OF OREGON. THE EXCEPTION
WAS NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL...WHERE PRECIPITATION WAS NEAR-
NORMAL. WATER-YEAR PRECIPITATION TOTALS REMAIN BELOW-NORMAL FOR MOST
BASINS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. MAY
TEMPERATURES WERE SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE-NORMAL FOR MOST OF OREGON.
SNOWPACK IN HIGHER TERRAIN WAS ALMOST COMPLETELY MELTED BY THE END
OF MAY. PEAK SNOWPACK IN MOST BASINS OCCURRED IN MARCH...AND TOTALS
RANGED FROM 30 TO 90 PERCENT OF NORMAL...LOWEST IN SOUTH-CENTRAL
OREGON AND HIGHEST IN NORTHEAST OREGON.

DROUGHT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THIS SUMMER FOR MANY BASINS IN SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL OREGON. STATE DROUGHT DECLARATIONS ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT
FOR SEVERAL OREGON COUNTIES...INCLUDING KLAMATH...HARNEY...LAKE...
MALHEUR...CROOK...GRANT...WHEELER...JOSEPHINE AND JACKSON. MOST OF
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE IS IN A D2 /SEVERE DROUGHT/ OR D3
/EXTREME DROUGHT/ DESIGNATION...WHILE MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF IS
D1 /MODERATE DROUGHT/. VISIT DROUGHT.GOV FOR IMAGES AND DETAILS OF
CURRENT AND PREDICTED DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

REFER TO THE SECTIONS BELOW AND THE LINKS PROVIDED FOR DETAILS
REGARDING SNOWPACK...PRECIPITATION...RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AND WATER
SUPPLY FORECASTS.

NOAA`S CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER SEASONAL OUTLOOKS FOR JUNE THROUGH
AUGUST CALL FOR ENHANCED LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN OREGON. THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS FOR
EQUAL CHANCES OF NORMAL...ABOVE-NORMAL...OR BELOW-NORMAL. ENSO-
NEUTRAL CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC ARE LIKELY TO TRANSITION
TO EL NINO CONDITIONS DURING THE SUMMER. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
SEASONAL OUTLOOKS...VISIT WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.

============================================================
SNOWPACK ACROSS OREGON

SNOWPACK AS OF EARLY JUNE WAS MOSTLY MELTED...WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH
ELEVATION SNOTEL STATIONS STILL REPORTING SNOW. SEASONAL TOTALS WERE
BELOW-NORMAL IN ALL BASINS EXCEPT FOR SOME FAR-NORTHEAST BASINS
WHICH WERE NEAR-NORMAL. PEAK SNOWPACK FOR MOST BASINS OCCURRED IN
MARCH AND RANGED FROM 90 PERCENT OF AVERAGE IN NORTHEAST OREGON TO
ONLY 25 PERCENT OF AVERAGE IN THE SOUTHERN OREGON MOUNTAINS. SEVERAL
SNOTEL STATIONS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON SET NEW RECORD LOWS FOR SNOW-
WATER EQUIVALENT.

REFER TO THE FOLLOWING LINKS FOR MORE DETAILS ON SNOW CONDITIONS.

NOAA`S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE - NORTHWEST RIVER FORECAST CENTER
WWW.NWRFC.NOAA.GOV/SNOW/

USDA - NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE
WWW.NRCS.USDA.GOV/WPS/PORTAL/NRCS/MAIN/OR/SNOW/

============================================================
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OREGON

WATER-YEAR PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE BELOW-NORMAL ACROSS OREGON FOR
THE FIRST EIGHT MONTHS OF THE 2014 WATER YEAR...RANGING FROM 40 TO
70 PERCENT FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE AND 60 TO 90 PERCENT
FOR THE NORTHERN HALF. MAY PRECIPITATION WAS NEAR-NORMAL FOR
NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL OREGON AND BELOW-NORMAL ELSEWHERE. VISIT
THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION TOTALS.

NOAA`S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE - NORTHWEST RIVER FORECAST CENTER
WWW.NWRFC.NOAA.GOV/WATER_SUPPLY/WY_SUMMARY/WY_SUMMARY.PHP

============================================================
MAJOR IRRIGATION RESERVOIRS

AT THE CLOSE OF MAY...1.5 MILLION ACRE-FEET OF WATER WAS STORED IN
26 MAJOR IRRIGATION RESERVOIRS IN OREGON. THIS IS A SLIGHT DECREASE
FROM THE PREVIOUS MONTH DURING WHAT WOULD TYPICALLY BE A MONTH OF
SNOWMELT RUNOFF AND INCREASED RESERVOIR STORAGE. THIS REFLECTS THE
LOW SNOWPACK...WARM TEMPERATURES AND EARLIER-THAN-TYPICAL DEMAND FOR
IRRIGATION DOWNSTREAM OF THE RESERVOIRS. THE CURRENT STORAGE
REPRESENTS 61 PERCENT OF AVERAGE...AND IS ONLY 45 PERCENT OF STORAGE
CAPACITY. THE CURRENT STORAGE IS 82 PERCENT OF STORAGE FOR THIS SAME
TIME LAST YEAR. OF PARTICULAR NOTE...OWYHEE RESERVOIR...THE LARGEST
IRRIGATION RESERVOIR IN OREGON...ONLY HAS 18 PERCENT OF CAPACITY...A
DECREASE IN 8 PERCENT FROM THE PREVIOUS MONTH. RESERVOIR DATA IS
PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE.

VISIT THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE INFORMATION:
WWW.WCC.NRCS.USDA.GOV/WSF/WSF-RESERVOIR.HTML

============================================================
CURRENT AND FORECAST STREAMFLOW

OBSERVED STREAMFLOW FOR MAY WAS NEAR-NORMAL IN NORTHERN OREGON AND
BELOW-NORMAL FOR SOUTHERN OREGON...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL AND
SNOWMELT TEMPORARILY BOOSTING STREAMFLOWS IN SOME BASINS.

FORECAST STREAMFLOW VOLUMES FOR THE SUMMER RANGE FROM 15 TO 70
PERCENT OF AVERAGE FOR BASINS IN SOUTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL
OREGON...AND 70 TO 100 PERCENT OF AVERAGE FOR NORTHERN OREGON
BASINS...HIGHEST IN FAR NORTHEAST OREGON. FORECASTS FOR BASINS IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON...INCLUDING THE KLAMATH AND SILVIES
BASINS...ARE PARTICULARLY LOW...15 TO 40 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.

THE FORECAST FOR THE COLUMBIA RIVER AT THE DALLES...WHICH IS A GOOD
INDEX OF CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN...IS 107% OF AVERAGE
FOR THE APRIL-SEPTEMBER PERIOD.

WATER SUPPLY FORECASTS ARE UPDATED DAILY AT WWW.NWRFC.NOAA.GOV (MOST
OF OREGON) AND WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV (KLAMATH BASIN).

VISIT THE FOLLOWING LINKS FOR MORE DETAILS ON BASIN-SCALE WATER
SUPPLY FORECASTS:

NOAA`S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE - NORTHWEST RIVER FORECAST CENTER
WWW.NWRFC.NOAA.GOV/WS/

NOAA`S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE - CALIFORNIA NEVADA RFC
WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV/WATER_SUPPLY.PHP

USDA - NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE
WWW.WCC.NRCS.USDA.GOV/WSF/

BRYANT
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