Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FGUS75 KPUB 270044
ESFPUB
COC003-009-011-015-021-023-025-027-041-043-055-061-065-071-
079-089-099-101-105-109-119-010700-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
540 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                    VALID PERIOD:  11/25/2014 - 02/23/2015

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:ARKANSAS RIVER
LEADVILLE            9.0   10.0   12.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
SALIDA               8.0    9.0   10.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
WELLSVILLE           9.0   10.0   11.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
PARKDALE             9.0   10.0   11.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
CANON CITY          10.0   12.0   14.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
PORTLAND             9.0   10.0   11.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
PUEBLO               8.0    9.0   11.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
AVONDALE             7.0    8.0    9.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
NEPESTA             16.5   17.5   18.5 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
FOWLER               8.0    9.0   10.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
ROCKY FORD          10.0   11.0   12.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
LA JUNTA            11.0   13.0   15.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
LAMAR               11.0   13.0   15.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:FOUNTAIN CREEK
COLORADO SPRINGS     8.0   11.0   13.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
FOUNTAIN             8.0   10.0   12.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
PINON                7.0    9.0   10.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
PUEBLO              10.0   12.0   13.5 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:ST. CHARLES RIVER
VINELAND            12.0   15.0   18.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:PURGATOIRE RIVER
MADRID               7.0    9.0   11.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
TRINIDAD LAKE       10.0   12.0   14.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
TRINIDAD            11.0   12.0   13.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
LAS ANIMAS           9.0   12.0   15.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                               CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                  AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 11/25/2014 - 02/23/2015
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:ARKANSAS RIVER
LEADVILLE             5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0
SALIDA                3.4    3.4    3.4    3.4    3.6    3.7    3.7
WELLSVILLE            4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.5    4.7    4.8
PARKDALE              3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5    3.6    3.8    3.9
CANON CITY            6.5    6.5    6.5    6.5    6.5    6.7    6.7
PORTLAND              2.6    2.6    2.6    2.6    2.8    2.9    2.9
PUEBLO                1.8    1.9    2.4    2.8    3.3    3.6    4.1
AVONDALE              1.8    1.8    1.8    2.0    2.4    2.8    3.2
NEPESTA              12.3   12.6   12.7   12.8   13.0   13.2   13.6
FOWLER                1.8    2.1    2.3    2.4    2.7    3.0    3.4
ROCKY FORD            1.2    1.2    1.7    2.0    2.1    2.5    2.7
LA JUNTA              6.6    6.6    6.6    7.1    7.7    8.4    9.0
LAMAR                 6.3    6.3    6.3    6.4    6.4    6.4    6.5
:FOUNTAIN CREEK
COLORADO SPRINGS      1.2    1.2    1.2    1.4    1.6    1.9    2.1
FOUNTAIN              4.9    4.9    4.9    5.0    5.2    5.4    5.5
PINON                 1.8    1.8    1.8    2.0    2.2    2.6    2.8
PUEBLO                1.9    1.9    1.9    1.9    2.2    2.5    2.7
:ST. CHARLES RIVER
VINELAND              2.6    2.8    2.9    3.0    3.5    4.1    4.9
:PURGATOIRE RIVER
MADRID                4.2    4.2    4.2    4.2    4.2    4.2    4.2
TRINIDAD LAKE         4.4    4.8    5.0    5.2    5.4    6.6    7.4
TRINIDAD              1.5    1.7    1.9    2.1    2.5    2.9    3.4
LAS ANIMAS            2.9    3.0    3.1    3.2    4.0    5.3    5.9

THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.

VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/PUB FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER
INFORMATION.

THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED NEAR THE END OF DECEMBER.

$$







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