Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1100 AM EST THU JAN 22 2015

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...

...THE RISK OF RIVER FLOODING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH
SPRING IS NEAR NORMAL.....

PRECIPITATION SUMMARY

PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM FALL INTO MID
JANUARY HAS SHOWN A RATHER ANOMALOUS PATTERN...WITH BELOW NORMAL
RAINFALL ACROSS THE WEST (THE YADKIN/PEE DEE RIVER BASIN) AND IN THE
FAR EASTERN HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (GENERALLY THE MID TO LOWER
REACHES OF THE CAPE FEAR...NEUSE...AND TAR RIVER  BASINS).
MEANWHILE...RAINFALL HAS BEEN ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS A RATHER NARROW (2-
3 COUNTY-WIDE) STRIP ACROSS CENTRAL NC ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR...WITH A BULLSEYE OF >125% SURPLUS FROM WAKE COUNTY
STRETCHING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.

THE RAINFALL DEFICIT IN THE YADKIN RIVER BASIN NOTED ABOVE IS THE
PRIMARY DRIVER FOR MAINTAINING ABNORMALLY DRY DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN
THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...WHERE THE DEFICIT SINCE OCTOBER IS AROUND
75 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN FORSYTH...GUILFORD...AND DAVIDSON COUNTIES.

THE FOLLOWING TABLES SUMMARIZE PRECIPITATION AND MONTHLY DEFICITS.

               PRECIPITATION (INCHES)/DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL
               WATER YEAR (BEGINNING 1 OCTOBER 2014)TO DATE

    MONTH           RDU           GSO        FAYETTEVILLE
---------------------------------------------------------------------

  OCTOBER       2.18/-1.07     2.01/-1.12     1.31/-1.90
  NOVEMBER      3.78/ 0.66     3.33/ 0.22     2.84/ 0.07
  DECEMBER      4.97/ 1.90     2.21/-0.77     4.22/ 1.57
  JAN TO DATE   2.27/-0.11     1.13/-0.98     3.24/ 1.22

  TOTALS       13.17/ 1.38     8.68/-2.65    11.61/ 0.96

  % OF NORMAL      112             77            109


                            ACTUAL   NORMAL  DEPARTURE  PERCENT
                             PCPN     PCPN   FROM NORM  OF NORM

RALEIGH-DURHAM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (RDU)

 LAST   7 DAYS   01/14/2015   0.50    0.81     -0.31       62%
 LAST  14 DAYS   01/07/2015   1.82    1.63      0.19      112%
 LAST  30 DAYS   12/22/2014   6.06    3.27      2.79      185%
 LAST  90 DAYS   10/23/2014  11.20    9.36      1.84      120%
 LAST 180 DAYS   07/25/2014  26.51   21.44      5.07      124%
 LAST 365 DAYS   01/21/2014  55.84   43.34     12.50      129%

PIEDMONT TRIAD INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (GSO)

 LAST   7 DAYS   01/14/2015   0.02    0.71     -0.69        3%
 LAST  14 DAYS   01/07/2015   0.59    1.43     -0.84       41%
 LAST  30 DAYS   12/22/2014   2.81    2.95     -0.14       95%
 LAST  90 DAYS   10/23/2014   7.10    9.02     -1.92       79%
 LAST 180 DAYS   07/25/2014  14.88   20.39     -5.51       73%
 LAST 365 DAYS   01/21/2014  33.79   42.20     -8.41       80%

FAYETTEVILLE AIRPORT (FAY)

 LAST   7 DAYS   01/14/2015   0.44    0.67     -0.23       66%
 LAST  14 DAYS   01/07/2015   2.97    1.38      1.59      215%
 LAST  30 DAYS   12/22/2014   6.83    2.64      4.19      259%
 LAST  90 DAYS   10/23/2014  10.30    7.98      2.32      129%
 LAST 180 DAYS   07/25/2014  22.42   21.83      0.59      103%
 LAST 365 DAYS   01/21/2014  41.62   44.46     -2.84       94%

STREAMFLOW AND LAKE LEVELS

IN THE SHORT TERM...A HEAVY RAIN EVENT ON JANUARY 12-14 PRODUCED
WIDESPREAD RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. RAINFALL
RANGED FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SANDHILLS...
AND THERE WAS SOME MINOR FLOODING ON THE NEUSE AND TAR RIVERS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FELL OFF RAPIDLY IN THE WEST...WITH FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES RECEIVING LESS THAN ONE HALF AN INCH.

NOT SURPRISINGLY...STREAMFLOWS RANGE FROM THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF FLOWS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE EAST TO BELOW THE 20TH PERCENTILE OVER
THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT.

THE LARGER WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIRS LOCATED IN CENTRAL NC...FALLS
LAKE AND LAKE JORDAN...BOTH OPERATED BY THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF
ENGINEERS...ARE BOTH ABOUT ONE HALF A FOOT ABOVE THEIR TARGET
ELEVATIONS.

SHORT TERM FORECAST

A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE EAST COAST EARLY THIS
WEEKEND (SATURDAY THE 24TH)...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AGAIN RANGING
FROM LIGHTER WEST TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY IN THE EAST. RAINFALL IN THE
GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES OVER THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR COULD
PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING ON THE NEUSE RIVER (WITH A GREATER THREAT
DOWNSTREAM AT GOLDSBORO)...AND POSSIBLY THE TAR RIVER (AGAIN MAINLY
DOWNSTREAM AT TARBORO). THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST
HEADING INTO LATE JANUARY...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE CORRESPONDINGLY
DRIER AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS INTO EARLY FEBRUARY. AS SUCH...THE
CHANCE FOR RIVER FLOODING IS CLASSIFIED AS NEAR NORMAL INTO LATE
JANUARY...DIMINISHING TO BELOW NORMAL CHANCES FOR FLOODING FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OR SO OF FEBRUARY.

LONG TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK

CLIMATOLOGICALLY...THE FREQUENCY OF RIVER FLOODING RISES WITH THE
APPROACH OF SPRING...PEAKING IN MARCH AND APRIL. WHILE THERE WERE
INITIAL INDICATIONS FOR CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF AN
EL NINO THIS WINTER...THOSE INDICATIONS HAVE WEAKENED AND THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS REDUCED THE PROBABILITY OF WETTER-THAN-
NORMAL CONDITIONS FROM FEBRUARY THROUGH APRIL. DISCOUNTING AN EL
NINO...THERE IS NO CLIMATOLOGICAL SIGNAL THAT MIGHT TIP THE SCALE IN
EITHER DIRECTION OF ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL...HENCE THE LONGER RANGE
CHANCE FOR RIVER FLOODING IS CATEGORIZED AS NEAR NORMAL.

ADDITIONAL DETAILS MAY BE FOUND AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
WEBSITE:

HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

IN SUMMARY...CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE RATHER WET ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA. A POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND WHICH COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING ON THE NEUSE AND TAR
RIVERS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE JANUARY INTO EARLY
FEBRUARY...WHICH WILL ALLOW SOILS TO DRY AND RIVER LEVELS TO
FALL. AS SUCH...THE CHANCE FOR RIVER FLOODING THROUGH THE FIRST
WEEK OF FEBRUARY IS CATEGORIZED AS NEAR NORMAL.

SIMILARLY...THERE IS CURRENTLY NO DEFINITIVE CLIMATOLOGICAL SIGNAL
PRESENT WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A DEVIATION FROM NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN
THE LONGER RANGE. EVEN IF A WEAK EL NINO WERE TO DEVELOP...ITS
CLIMATOLOGICAL INFLUENCE FOR ENHANCING PRECIPITATION WOULD BE MINIMAL
IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THUS THE CHANCE FOR RIVER FLOODING FROM
FEBRUARY THROUGH APRIL IS ALSO CATEGORIZED AS NEAR NORMAL.

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON
FEBRUARY 5TH.

MLM



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