Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1130 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

...THE SHORT TERM CHANCE OF RIVER FLOODING IS BELOW NORMAL...
...THE CHANCE OF RIVER FLOODING FROM MID FEBRUARY THROUGH
THROUGH SPRING IS ABOVE NORMAL...

PRECIPITATION SUMMARY

OVER THE SHORT TERM...A COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA ON FEBRUARY 3RD AND STALLED NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE
4TH BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM PRODUCED WIDESPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA...PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST...WHERE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS RANGED FROM 3 TO 4 INCHES IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN. THE PRECIPITATION CAUSED MINOR FLOODING ON THE
TAR AND NEUSE RIVERS...AND THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING MINOR
FLOODING AT TARBORO ON THE TAR RIVER...AND AT GOLDSBORO ON THE
LOWER NEUSE RIVER.

OVERALL...THE PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS
MAINTAINED A DISTINCT LOWER-NORTHWEST (<1.0 INCH) TO HIGHER
SOUTHEAST (4+ INCHES) PATTERN NORMALLY CHARACTERISTIC OF THE WARM
PHASE (EL NINO) OF AN ENSO CYCLE. DAMP CONDITIONS PERSIST EVEN IN
THE NORTHWEST...HOWEVER...AND DEEP RELATIVE SOIL MOISTURE (0-80
INCH DEPTH) ACROSS THE AREA IS ABOVE 60 PERCENT OF SATURATION.

SIMILARLY OVER THE LONGER RANGE...RAINFALL FOR THE WATER YEAR
(OCT 2015 TO DATE) ALSO EXHIBITS A DISTRIBUTION ASSOCIATED WITH
AN EL NINO....WETTER SOUTHWEST (UP TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL) TO
DRIER-NORTHEAST (~125 PERCENT OF NORMAL) DISTRIBUTION.

THE FOLLOWING TABLES SUMMARIZE PRECIPITATION AND MONTHLY DEFICITS.

               PRECIPITATION (INCHES)/DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL
               WATER YEAR (BEGINNING 1 OCTOBER 2015)TO DATE

    MONTH           RDU            GSO        FAYETTEVILLE
---------------------------------------------------------------------

  OCTOBER        5.06/ 1.81     4.24/ 1.11     6.66/ 3.45
  NOVEMBER       7.14/ 4.02     6.79/ 3.68     6.38/ 3.61
  DECEMBER       6.07/ 3.00     6.65/ 3.67     6.51/ 3.86
  JANUARY        1.73/-1.77     1.91/-1.15     1.70/-1.60
  FEB TO DATE    1.54/ 0.76     1.00/ 0.31     2.68/ 2.06

TOTALS WATER
YEAR TO DATE    21.54/ 7.82    20.59/ 7.62    23.93/11.38
 % OF NORMAL        157            159            191


                  BEGIN     ACTUAL   NORMAL  DEPARTURE  PERCENT
                  DATE       PCPN     PCPN   FROM NORM  OF NORM

RALEIGH-DURHAM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (RDU)

 LAST   7 DAYS   02/01/2016   1.54    0.78      0.76      197%
 LAST  14 DAYS   01/25/2016   1.54    1.56     -0.02       99%
 LAST  30 DAYS   01/09/2016   3.23    3.41     -0.18       95%
 LAST  90 DAYS   11/10/2015  12.29    9.51      2.78      129%
 LAST 180 DAYS   08/12/2015  29.18   20.82      8.36      140%
 LAST 365 DAYS   02/08/2015  56.63   43.34     13.29      131%

PIEDMONT TRIAD INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (GSO)

 LAST   7 DAYS   02/01/2016   1.00    0.69      0.31      145%
 LAST  14 DAYS   01/25/2016   1.03    1.36     -0.33       76%
 LAST  30 DAYS   01/09/2016   2.88    2.97     -0.09       97%
 LAST  90 DAYS   11/10/2015  12.53    8.87      3.66      141%
 LAST 180 DAYS   08/12/2015  28.37   19.63      8.74      145%
 LAST 365 DAYS   02/08/2015  48.98   42.20      6.78      116%

FAYETTEVILLE AIRPORT (FAY)

 LAST   7 DAYS   02/01/2016   2.68    0.62      2.06      432%
 LAST  14 DAYS   01/25/2016   2.75    1.55      1.20      177%
 LAST  30 DAYS   01/09/2016   4.38    3.17      1.21      138%
 LAST  90 DAYS   11/10/2015  13.03    8.61      4.42      151%
 LAST 180 DAYS   08/12/2015  29.46   20.37      9.09      145%
 LAST 365 DAYS   02/08/2015  53.19   44.46      8.73      120%

STREAMFLOW AND LAKE LEVELS

STREAMFLOWS ACROSS CENTRAL NC ARE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THEIR NORMAL
RANGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...HAVING EDGED UPWARD A BIT OVER THE
PAST TWO WEEKS. FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS...SEE WWW.WATERWATCH.USGS.GOV.

THE LARGER WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIRS LOCATED IN CENTRAL NC ARE FALLS
LAKE AND LAKE JORDAN...BOTH OPERATED BY THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF
ENGINEERS. FALLS LAKE ELEVATION IS AT 252.5 FEET...A FOOT ABOVE ITS
TARGET ELEVATION OF 251.5 FEET AFTER HAVING RISEN TO 253 FEET ON
FEBRUARY 5TH. LAKE JORDAN ROSE ABOUT 2.5 FEET AND IS CURRENTLY NEARLY
STEADY NEAR ITS PEAK ELEVATION OF 218.7 FEET (2.7 FEET ABOVE THE
TARGET ELEVATION)...BUT WILL BE LOWERED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SEE WWW.EPEC.SAW.USACE.ARMY.MIL FOR MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS.

SHORT TERM FORECAST

AS NOTED ABOVE...STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHER THAN
NORMAL...BUT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A SYSTEM LOOMING IN THE
NEAR TERM (FEB 9 THROUGH FEB 18TH) THAT WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ENOUGH PRECIPITATION TO CAUSE FLOODING TO RECUR. AS
SUCH...THE SHORT RANGE CHANCE FOR RIVER FLOODING IS BELOW NORMAL
HEADING INTO MID FEBRUARY.

LONG TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK

CLIMATOLOGICALLY...THE FREQUENCY OF RIVER FLOODING INCREASES FROM
MID WINTER THROUGH SPRING...PEAKING IN APRIL. THE ONGOING WARM PHASE
OF THE EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) CYCLE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WINTER AND INTO SPRING...WITH THE CORRESPONDING EFFECT
OF INCREASING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WITH RELATIVELY WET
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS IN PLACE...THE CHANCE OF RIVER FLOODING FROM
MID FEBRUARY INTO THE SPRING IS ABOVE NORMAL.

ADDITIONAL DETAILS AND DISCUSSION MAY BE FOUND AT THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER WEBSITE: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

IN SUMMARY...CURRENT HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS ARE WETTER THAN NORMAL
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THERE IS NO SYSTEM EXPECTED THROUGH
MID FEBRUARY THAT WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A RECURRENCE OF
RIVER FLOODING...THUS THE SHORT TERM CHANCE OF RIVER FLOODING IS
BELOW NORMAL. IN THE LONGER RANGE...HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF RIVER
FLOODING WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO THE THREAT OF ABOVE NORMAL
RAINFALL RESULTING FROM THE ONGOING WARM PHASE OF THE ENSO CYCLE.

THE NEXT SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON FEBRUARY 18TH.

MLM



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