Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1215 PM EST THU APR 3 2014

...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

...THE SHORT TERM RISK OF RIVER FLOODING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH MID APRIL IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...

PRECIPITATION SUMMARY

MARCH PRECIPITATION WAS WELL ABOVE NORMAL (>4 INCHES) ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WHICH INCLUDES THE HEADWATERS REGIONS OF
THE ROANOKE...CAPE FEAR...NEUSE AND TAR RIVERS...WHILE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER WAS NORMAL (3-4 INCHES). A HEAVY RAIN EVENT ON 3/6-7 WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR OVER HALF OF THE MONTH`S TOTAL AND CAUSED MINOR
FLOODING ON THE HAW AND DEEP RIVERS. RAINFALL FOR THE MID TO LATE MARCH
TIME FRAME WAS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL...HOWEVER...WHICH ALLOWED STREAMFLOWS
AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO NORMAL BY MONTH`S END.

THE FOLLOWING TABLES SUMMARIZE PRECIPITATION AND MONTHLY DEFICITS.

               PRECIPITATION (INCHES)/DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL
               WATER YEAR (BEGINNING 1 OCTOBER 2013)TO DATE

    MONTH           RDU           GSO        FAYETTEVILLE
---------------------------------------------------------------------

  OCTOBER       1.41/-1.84     1.11/-2.02     0.91/-2.30
  NOVEMBER      2.99/-0.13     3.61/ 0.50     2.54/-0.23
  DECEMBER      5.91/ 2.84     5.19/ 2.21     4.28/ 1.63
  JANUARY       1.96/-1.54     3.98/ 0.92     4.06/ 0.76
  FEBRUARY      3.00/-0.23     2.24/-0.72     2.66/-0.10
  MARCH         5.06/ 0.95     4.36/ 0.63     3.64/ 0.09

  TOTALS       20.33/ 0.05    20.49/ 1.54    18.09/ 0.15
  % OF NORMAL      100            108            101

                  BEGIN      ACTUAL  NORMAL  DEPARTURE   PERCENT
                   DATE       PCPN    PCPN   FROM NORM   OF NORM

RALEIGH-DURHAM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (RDU)

 LAST   7 DAYS   03/27/2014   1.03    0.88      0.15      117%
 LAST  14 DAYS   03/20/2014   1.20    1.78     -0.58       67%
 LAST  30 DAYS   03/04/2014   4.70    3.95      0.75      119%
 LAST  90 DAYS   01/03/2014   9.69   10.87     -1.18       89%
 LAST 180 DAYS   10/05/2013  20.33   20.06      0.27      101%
 LAST 365 DAYS   04/03/2013  50.57   43.34      7.23      117%

PIEDMONT TRIAD INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (GSO)

 LAST   7 DAYS   03/27/2014   0.25    0.87     -0.62       29%
 LAST  14 DAYS   03/20/2014   0.63    1.70     -1.07       37%
 LAST  30 DAYS   03/04/2014   3.94    3.63      0.31      109%
 LAST  90 DAYS   01/03/2014  10.16    9.82      0.34      103%
 LAST 180 DAYS   10/05/2013  20.49   18.82      1.67      109%
 LAST 365 DAYS   04/03/2013  49.49   42.20      7.29      117%

FAYETTEVILLE AIRPORT (FAY)

 LAST   7 DAYS   03/27/2014   1.09    0.94      0.15      116%
 LAST  14 DAYS   03/20/2014   1.13    1.75     -0.62       65%
 LAST  30 DAYS   03/04/2014   3.20    3.48     -0.28       92%
 LAST  90 DAYS   01/03/2014  10.05    9.68      0.37      104%
 LAST 180 DAYS   10/05/2013  18.09   17.82      0.27      102%
 LAST 365 DAYS   04/03/2013  45.93   44.46      1.47      103%

STREAMFLOW AND LAKE LEVELS

STREAMFLOWS ACROSS THE AREA ARE WELL IN THE NORMAL RANGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. IN ADDITION...THE LARGE WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIRS IN CENTRAL NC...
FALLS LAKE AND LAKE JORDAN...OPERATED BY THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF
ENGINEERS...ARE BOTH SLIGHTLY ABOVE THEIR GUIDE CURVES WITH INFLOWS IN THE
NORMAL RANGE.

SHORT TERM FORECAST

A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY...THE 7TH...
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING ONE INCH. THIS COULD CAUSE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF STREAMFLOWS RISING ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE. AS WE ARE
IN A TYPICALLY ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WITH POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION
PRODUCING SYSTEMS EVERY FEW DAYS...THE SHORT TERM RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL
(THROUGH MID APRIL) IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK

CLIMATOLOGICALLY...WE ARE ON THE DOWNSIDE OF OUR ANNUAL PEAK OF
ANNUAL FREQUENCY FOR RIVER FLOODING. IN ADDITION...THERE IS NO
CORRESPONDING CLIMATOLOGICAL SIGNAL THAT WOULD SUGGEST A DEVIATION
FROM A NORMAL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SPRING.
THUS...THE CHANCE OF LONGER-RANGE RIVER FLOODING...FROM MID APRIL THROUGH
JUNE...IS CONSIDERED TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

ADDITIONAL DETAILS MAY BE FOUND AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
WEBSITE:

HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

THE NEXT SCHEDULED SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON
APRIL 17H.

MLM



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