Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FGUS74 KSHV 171111
ESFSHV
TXC183-203-365-401-419-423-459-499-LAC031-172359-


PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
611 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014


...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE SABINE RIVER BASIN OF EAST TEXAS...


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE (NWS) OFFICE IN SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA
HAS IMPLEMENTED THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS)
FOR THE SABINE RIVER BASIN IN EASTERN TEXAS.  AHPS ENABLES THE
NWS TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS.  THIS SERVICE IS
ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.


IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS DURING
THE NEXT 90 DAYS.  FOR EXAMPLE...THE SABINE RIVER NEAR MINEOLA
TEXAS FLOOD STAGE IS 14 FEET.  THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE
SABINE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE 16.4 FEET DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.


        CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
          VALID FOR OCTOBER 16 2014 - JANUARY 15 2015


     LOCATION      FS  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
------------------ --  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---

LAKE FORK CREEK
 QUITMAN 4S        16  2.9  3.3  3.9  4.5  7.0  9.2 10.4 14.3 15.9
SABINE RIVER
 MINEOLA 4S        14  6.7  8.2 12.1 15.4 16.4 16.9 17.5 18.6 18.7
 GLADEWATER 3WSW   26  8.3  9.9 13.5 17.5 23.4 25.5 29.4 32.7 34.4
 LONGVIEW          25  9.5 12.1 16.2 20.3 23.0 24.9 26.6 29.2 31.4
 BECKVILLE 8NE     26 10.9 12.4 16.2 20.5 22.3 23.9 26.8 27.9 28.8
 LOGANSPORT        28 21.5 21.7 22.2 23.3 25.0 28.6 30.5 31.8 33.4
BIG SANDY CREEK
 BIG SANDY 4NE     17  7.7  8.0  8.7  9.5 10.2 10.8 12.2 13.9 14.7
RABBIT CREEK
 KILGORE           10  5.7  7.8  9.3  9.6 10.1 10.5 11.3 11.6 12.5


 LOCATION     90%   80%   70%   60%   50%   40%   30%   20%   10%
 ----------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
LK CHEROKEE  279.1 280.0 280.1 280.3 280.4 280.4 280.7 280.9 281.2
LK MARTIN    304.6 305.2 306.1 306.2 306.3 306.3 306.5 306.7 307.1
LK MURVAUL   265.6 265.7 266.1 266.3 266.6 266.9 267.4 267.8 268.3


THIS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK USES PROBABILITIES COMPUTED
USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 60 YEARS OF HISTORICAL CLIMATOLOGICAL
AND STREAM FLOW DATA.  THESE PROBABILITIES ALSO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CURRENT RIVER FLOWS AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS.  BY PROVIDING THE
COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE LEVEL OF RISK
ASSOCIATED WITH LONG RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED.

ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT THIS URL:  HTTP://AHPS.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=SHV
(INTERNET ADDRESS URL IS ALL LOWER CASE).

LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED DURING THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.

$$

VIII.





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