Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FGUS74 KSHV 211642
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ARC003-027-139-TXC001-005-073-225-347-373-401-405-419-455-457-
LAC015-119-221042-


PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1142 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015


...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) long range
probabilistic outlook for the Sabine River basin of East Texas...

In the table below...the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the
chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels during
the next 90 days.  For example...the Sabine River near Mineola
Texas flood stage is 14 feet.  There is a 50 percent chance the
Sabine River will rise above 12.0 feet during the next 90 days.


        Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations
               valid for May 21 - August 20 2015


     Location      FS  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
------------------ --  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---

Lake Fork Creek
 Quitman 4S        16 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.3 16.8 18.4
Sabine River
 Mineola 4S        14 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 13.3 15.4 15.8 16.9
 Gladewater 3WSW   26 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.3 28.9 32.4
 Longview          25 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.4 23.7 25.6 28.3
 Beckville 8NE     26 24.7 24.7 24.7 24.7 24.7 24.7 24.7 26.7 28.9
 Logansport        28 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.7 31.3 32.4 34.0
Big Sandy Creek
 Big Sandy 4NE     17  9.9  9.9  9.9  9.9 10.5 11.1 12.1 13.1 14.8
Rabbit Creek
 Kilgore           10  6.3  6.3  6.3  6.3  6.3  7.4  9.3 10.0 12.7


 Location     90%   80%   70%   60%   50%   40%   30%   20%   10%
 ----------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
Lk Cherokee  280.6 280.6 280.6 280.6 280.6 280.6 280.6 280.6 281.1
Lk Martin    306.2 306.2 306.2 306.2 306.2 306.3 306.4 306.6 307.3
Lk Murvaul   266.1 266.1 266.1 266.1 266.1 266.1 266.4 267.2 268.4

This long range probabilistic outlook uses probabilities computed
using multiple scenarios from 60 years of historical climatological
and stream flow data.  These probabilities also account for the
current river flows and soil moisture conditions.  By providing the
complete range of probabilistic numbers...the level of risk
associated with long range planning decisions can be determined.

Additional supportive data and explanations are available on the
internet at this URL:  water.weather.gov/ahps2/area.php?wfo=shv

Long range probabilistic outlooks are issued during the third
Thursday of every month.

$$




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