Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FGUS74 KSJT 161839
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TXC049-081-083-095-151-235-253-267-281-307-319-327-333-399-411-417-
431-441-451-170637-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
139 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS)
Long range probabilistic outlook for the Colorado
River Basin in West Central Texas


The National Weather Service office in San Angelo Texas has
implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for
The Colorado River Basin in west central Texas. AHPS enables the
National Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic
outlooks. This service is also available on the internet.


In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the
chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the
next 90 days. Example: the Colorado River near Silver has a flood
stage of 22 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the forecast point
at Silver will rise above
3.5 feet
during the next 90 Days.


        CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
            VALID [ 10/15/2014 - 1/14/2015 ]

LOCATION     FS(FT)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
--------     ------  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
Colorado River
 Silver        22.0  2.5  2.5  2.9  3.1  3.5  3.9  4.7  5.4  6.3
 Robert Lee    33.0  1.0  1.0  1.0  1.0  1.0  1.0  1.0  1.0  1.0
 Ballinger     18.0  4.5  4.6  4.7  5.1  6.1  7.1  8.0  9.5 12.2
 Stacy         40.0  3.9  3.9  3.9  3.9  4.0  4.1  4.2  4.3  4.6
 Winchell      26.0  2.5  2.5  3.0  3.5  4.0  4.7  6.0  6.8  7.7
 San Saba      30.0  2.0  2.3  2.7  3.9  5.0  6.1  6.7  8.2 10.7
Elm Creek
 Ballinger      7.0  4.0  4.0  4.0  4.0  4.2  4.3  4.5  4.7  5.0
North Concho River
 Sterling City 17.0  7.0  7.0  7.0  7.0  7.0  7.0  7.1  8.0  8.9
 Carlsbad      12.0  3.5  3.8  3.9  4.3  4.8  5.2  5.6  5.9  7.4
Middle Concho River
 Tankersley    18.0  5.9  5.9  5.9  5.9  6.4  7.5  7.9  8.5  9.1
Spring Creek
 Tankersley    14.0  2.6  2.6  2.6  2.6  2.6  4.1  4.6  4.9  5.6
Dove Creek
 Knickerbocker 26.0  3.7  3.7  3.7  3.7  3.7  3.7  3.7  3.9  4.5
South Concho River
 Christoval    10.0  2.0  2.0  2.1  2.1  2.2  2.2  2.3  2.3  2.3
Pecan Creek
 San Angelo    10.0  0.6  0.6  0.6  0.6  0.6  0.7  0.8  0.8  1.0
Concho River
 San Angelo    26.0  1.5  1.5  1.5  1.6  1.7  1.9  2.2  2.3  2.5
 Paint Rock    26.0 12.7 12.7 12.8 12.9 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.8
Pecan Bayou
 Mullin        40.0  0.8  0.8  2.0  3.1  4.2  5.4  6.5  8.8 10.9
Brady Creek
 Brady         26.0  5.6  5.6  5.6  5.6  5.6  5.6  5.6  5.6  5.6
San Saba River
 Menard        18.0  2.5  2.6  2.8  3.1  3.5  3.9  4.5  5.6  6.7
 Brady         30.0  2.3  2.3  2.5  2.7  2.9  3.3  4.7  5.4  7.1
 San Saba      24.0  2.6  2.6  2.8  3.2  4.3  6.9  8.8 13.5 18.5
North Llano River
 Junction      21.0  7.3  7.6  7.7  7.8  8.0  8.2  8.6  9.3  9.9
Llano River
 Junction      16.0  2.1  2.5  2.7  3.4  3.9  4.1  4.9  6.2 10.7
 Mason         23.0  1.1  1.2  1.6  2.3  2.8  3.6  4.9  7.4 11.3
Beaver Creek
 Mason         12.0  1.9  2.0  2.1  2.1  2.3  2.5  2.8  3.3  4.5




Oak Creek Reservoir
    90%    80%     70%    60%    50%    40%    30%    20%    10%
    ---    ---     ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
 1975.1 1975.1  1975.1 1975.1 1975.1 1975.5 1976.3 1977.4 1978.9


Lake Coleman
    90%    80%     70%    60%    50%    40%    30%    20%    10%
    ---    ---     ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
 1699.0 1699.0  1699.2 1700.4 1701.5 1702.2 1702.9 1706.7 1713.2


Lake Brownwood
    90%    80%     70%    60%    50%    40%    30%    20%    10%
    ---    ---     ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
 1411.9 1411.9  1411.9 1412.0 1412.1 1412.5 1412.9 1414.2 1416.6


Brady Creek Reservoir
    90%    80%     70%    60%    50%    40%    30%    20%    10%
    ---    ---     ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
 1727.4 1727.5  1727.6 1727.7 1727.7 1727.8 1728.0 1730.0 1733.3


This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are
calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical
climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take
into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture.
By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers, the
level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can
be determined.


Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the
internet at: www.srh.weather.gov/cgi-bin/ahps.cgi?sjt


Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third
Thursday of every month.


$$






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