Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Salt Lake City
Flood Potential Outlook
251 pm March 3rd, 2017

             Utah Flood Potential Outlook
                       March 3rd, 2017


The 2017 spring runoff flood potential due to snowmelt is high for
Weber, Provo, Duchesne and Bear River basins of Utah at this time.
This potential is due to the much above median snow conditions in
all of these areas. It should also be emphasized that snow typically
accumulates into mid April and even May and that the threat of
spring flooding will largely be determined by hydrometeorologic
events that occur during the next several months. Conditions in the
Virgin and Sevier River basin are near normal. Conditions in the Six
Creeks basin near Salt Lake City are above average but not as high
as in the Provo, Weber, Bear or Duchesne and Green River Basins.

February month to date precipitation is much above average in
central and northern Utah. The snow water equivalent in the Weber,
Provo, Duchesne and Bear River basins are much above normal with
many of our snow gaging locations already exceeding the annual peak
snowpack which typically occur in mid April or early May. The
current snow water equivalent is 165% of median in the Weber River
drainage, 197% of median in the Provo River drainage, 191% of median
in the Duchesne and 160% of median in the Bear River headwaters.
Many of Utah`s SNOTEL`s are currently ranked in the top 3 highest
years for the period of record.  Additionally several are ranked as
the highest in the period of record at near 200% of median as of
February 15.

Current volumetric forecasts for the April through July runoff
period are much above average for all of the above mentioned basins
with the exception of those in south central and southern Utah.

Although spring temperatures affect the pattern of snowmelt runoff
and consequently the magnitude of peak flows, peak flows may roughly
correspond to volumetric flows in their magnitude. It is also
important to keep in mind that an extended period of much above
normal temperatures or heavy rainfall during the melt period can
cause or exacerbate flooding problems during any year.

The spring runoff flood potential will continue to be updated as
conditions evolve.
$$

Brian McInerney
Hydrologist
National Weather Service



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