Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UTAH WATER SUPPLY SUMMARY
306 PM MST WED MAR 2 2016

FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK UTAH


THE 2016 SPRING RUNOFF FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE TO SNOWMELT IS AVERAGE AT
THIS TIME FOR UTAHS RIVER BASINS.

CURRENT SNOW CONDITIONS IN UTAH ARE NEAR AVERAGE. HOWEVER...BELOW
AVERAGE SNOWFALL DURING FEBRUARY HAS REDUCED THE SPRING SNOWMELT
RUNOFF THREAT FROM ITS EARLIER LEVELS AT THE END OF JANUARY.  PRIOR
TO FEBRUARY SNOWPACKS ACROSS THE STATE WERE CONSIDERABLY
LARGER...SOME AREAS NEAR 150 PERCENT. HOWEVER...SINCE THAT TIME SWE VOLUMES
HAVE BEEN REDUCED DUE TO THE WARMER DRIER CONDITIONS.

IN ADDITION TO BELOW AVERAGE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS DURING FEBRUARY
...TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOUNTAIN AREAS WERE VERY WARM COMPARED TO
CLIMATOLOGY.  IN ADDITION...SOLAR INPUT TO THE SNOWPACK HAS BEEN
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MONTH AND HAS MELTED LOWER TO MID ELEVATION
SNOW...REDUCING OVERALL MOUNTAIN VOLUMES.

IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT SNOW ACCUMULATION CONDITIONS COULD
CHANGE QUITE A BIT BEFORE THE RUNOFF BEGINS. ALTHOUGH SPRING
TEMPERATURES AFFECT THE PATTERN OF SNOWMELT RUNOFF AND CONSEQUENTLY
THE MAGNITUDE OF PEAK FLOWS, PEAK FLOWS ALSO ROUGHLY CORRESPOND TO
VOLUMETRIC FLOWS. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THAT AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OR HEAVY RAINFALL
DURING THE MELT PERIOD CAN CAUSE OR EXACERBATE FLOODING PROBLEMS IN
ANY YEAR.


$$

BRIAN MCINERNEY
HYDROLOGIST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE



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