Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS

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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
400 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015 /300 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015/

...POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT FLOOD RISK DEVELOPING TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...

...OVERVIEW...
A TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
WILL ESTABLISH AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

...ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...
OVER THE LAST TWO MONTHS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE AVERAGED SEVERAL
INCHES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INTO
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA AND INTO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. THESE PERSISTENT WET
CONDITIONS HAVE MAINTAINED AREA STREAMFLOWS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS THROUGH MID DECEMBER.

...FORECAST RAINFALL...
A SERIES OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THESE DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH A VERY MOIST
TROPICAL AIRMASS...EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...THE
FLORIDA PANHANNDLE AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. AS THESE
DISTURBANCES MOVE FURTHER EASTWARD...THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIER
RAINFALL WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD COME TO AN END ON
THURSDAY EVENING.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LESSER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES IS POSSIBLE FURTHER EAST IN SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND.

...POTENTIAL FLOODING IMPACTS...
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS IN SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND RESULT IN MODEST RISES ON THE MAINSTEM RIVERS ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATER THIS WEEK. THE
PEA...CHOCTAWHATCHEE...AND CHIPOLA RIVER BASINS ARE ESPECIALLY
VULNERABLE TO RIVER FLOODING GIVEN THIS PARTICULAR FORECAST. THERE
IS A SLIGHTLY LOWER RIVER FLOOD RISK FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE
APALACHICOLA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...FLINT...AND OCHLOCKONEE RIVER
BASINS.

ADDITIONALLY...DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS...THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS EXISTS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

$$

GODSEY



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