Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK - CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
211 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOOD CONDITIONS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THIS SPRING. FLOODING IN THIS AREA
USUALLY OCCURS IN RESPONSE TO SPECIFIC PRECIPITATION EVENTS.
HOWEVER...THE ARKANSAS RIVER MAY FLOOD IN RESPONSE TO MORE WIDESPREAD
UPSTREAM CONDITIONS. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO INDICATIONS OF EXTREME
HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS TO ALTER THE FLOOD POTENTIAL OF THE AREA. MANY
CURRENT HYDROLOGIC INDICATORS REFLECT AN ONGOING DROUGHT THAT HAS
GRIPPED THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR SEVERAL YEARS. HOWEVER...EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAVE GOTTEN MORE RELIEF OVER THE
LAST YEAR COMPARED TO AREAS FURTHER WEST.

PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE LAST 90 DAYS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS HAVE BEEN BELOW TO WELL-BELOW AVERAGE. MOST OF THE
AREA NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 HAS RECEIVED 25 PERCENT TO 75 PERCENT OF
THE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION DURING THE LAST THREE MONTHS...WHILE LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 HAVE RECEIVED 50 TO 90 PERCENT OF THE AVERAGE.
THE RED RIVER BASIN WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER WITH 75 TO AROUND 100
PERCENT OF THE NORMAL RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 90 DAYS.

SOIL MOISTURE WAS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE SOIL PROFILE WERE NEAR
NORMAL. HOWEVER FURTHER DOWN...MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS EXIST WITH SOIL
MOISTURE ANOMALIES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 PERCENT TO AROUND 100
PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS REFLECTS THE LONG TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS
THAT HAVE AFFECTED THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

ACCORDING TO THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...STREAM AND RIVER DISCHARGES
WERE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA NEAR THE ARKANSAS STATE
LINE. STREAMFLOWS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA IN THE ARKANSAS...VERDIGRIS
AND GRAND-NEOSHO BASINS WERE GENERALLY BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL...WITH
A FEW STREAMFLOWS BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE.

RESERVOIR STORAGE IN OKLAHOMA CURRENTLY VARIES BETWEEN THE STRUCTURES
IN THE ARKANSAS RIVER SYSTEM AND THOSE IN THE RED RIVER SYSTEM. IN THE
AGGREGATE...THE RESERVOIRS IN OKLAHOMA HAVE 110 PERCENT OF THEIR FLOOD
CONTROL STORAGE AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME ACCORDING TO THE U.S. ARMY CORPS
OF ENGINEERS. AVAILABLE CAPACITY IN THE ARKANSAS SYSTEM IS APPROXIMATELY
108 PERCENT OF DESIGNED FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE. AVAILABLE CAPACITY IN
THE RED RIVER SYSTEM IS APPROXIMATELY 114 PERCENT OF DESIGN FLOOD CONTROL
STORAGE. 100 PERCENT OF DESIGN FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE IS ALSO AVAILABLE
IN THE WHITE RIVER BASIN OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THE 19 FEBRUARY 2015 CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/ SPRING /MAR-
APR-MAY/ OUTLOOK CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE...BELOW...AND NEAR
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AND A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED CHANCE /33-40 PERCENT/
FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR OF 3 MARCH 2015 INDICATES SEVERE /D2/
DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS PAWNEE...OSAGE...NORTHERN
CREEK...AND FAR WESTERN TULSA COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
MODERATE /D1/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING IN
CREEK...TULSA...FAR NORTHERN OKMULGEE...WESTERN
WAGONER...ROGERS...SOUTHWEST NOWATA...AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS WERE ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ BUT NOT IN DROUGHT. THE CPC U.S.
MONTHLY DROUGHT OUTLOOK OF 28 FEBRUARY 2015 INDICATES THAT DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OR INTENSIFY IN THE D1/D2 AREA DURING MARCH
2015...AND ADDITIONAL DROUGHT DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY WEST OF HIGHWAY
75 AND THE INDIAN NATION TURNPIKE.

FOR THE LATEST RIVER STAGE INFORMATION...FORECAST...AND WARNINGS
PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT:

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TULSA

RIVER STAGE AND FORECAST DATA CAN BE OBTAINED BY SELECTING THE
RIVERS/LAKES LINK UNDER THE CURRENT WEATHER SECTION OR THE RIVER
FORECASTS LINK UNDER THE FORECASTS SECTION.



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