Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS

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FGUS65 KSTR 071516
ESGCO

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UT


                      SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL
             FOR THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN WITHIN COLORADO

                         JANUARY 7, 2015

The 2015 spring runoff flood potential due to snowmelt is near normal at this
time for the Yampa/White, Upper Colorado mainstem, Gunnison, Dolores and
San Juan basins.  It should be emphasized that it is very early in the snow
accumulation season and conditions could change quite a bit before the runoff
begins.

December precipitation was near to above average across western Colorado with
values between 100 and 135 percent of average.  The highest percentages
occurred in the Upper Colorado mainstem, Gunnison, and Dolores basins.
Seasonal precipitation is near to below average and  ranges from 70 percent of
average in the San Juan basin to 105 percent of average in the Upper Colorado
mainstem basin.  January 1st snow water equivalent is between  70 and 120
percent of median.  The Upper Colorado mainstem and Gunnison basins are on the
upper end of that range and the Dolores and San Juan basins are on the lower
end; the Yampa/White is near average.

The current volume forecasts for the April through July runoff period are
generally near to above average for much of the Yampa/White, Upper Colorado
mainstem, and Gunnison basins, although within those areas sub-basins such as
the Little Snake, Plateau Creek and North Fork Gunnison are forecast to be
below average at this time.  The current forecasts in the Dolores Basin are
near to below average and the San Juan basin forecasts are below to much
below average.

Although spring temperatures affect the pattern of snowmelt runoff and
consequently the magnitude of peak flows, peak flows also roughly correspond
to volumetric flows. It is also important to keep in mind that an extended
period of much above normal temperatures or heavy rainfall during the melt
period can cause or exacerbate flooding problems in any year.



CBRFC/Alcorn




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