Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2
000
FGUS65 KSTR 051803
ESGCO

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UT


                      SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL
             FOR THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN WITHIN COLORADO

                         MAY 5, 2016

The 2016 spring runoff flood potential due to snowmelt is near normal at this
time for the Yampa/White, Upper Colorado mainstem, Gunnison, Dolores and
San Juan basins.

Currently, no sites are forecast to peak at or above the flood flow. A few sites
are forecast to peak above bankfull at the 10% exceedance levels but, in general,
below average peaks are expected across western Colorado.  Keep in mind specific
forecast procedures and flood flow levels do not exist for all streams.

April basin averaged precipitation was near to above average across western
Colorado.  In the southwest part of the state the Dolores Basin received 90
percent of average for the month and the San Juan Basin had 105 percent of
average, while further north it was a bit wetter with the Gunnison Basin at
115 percent of average, the Upper Colorado mainstem at 110 percent of average,
and the Yampa/White Basin at 125 percent of average.  Water year precipitation
remains near average in all basins.

May 1st basin averaged snow water equivalent is above median in the Upper
Colorado mainstem and Yampa/White basins at 110 percent, near median in the
Gunnison at 95 percent and below median in the Dolores and San Juan basins at
85 and 75 percent of median, respectively.


Although spring temperatures affect the pattern of snowmelt runoff and
consequently the magnitude of peak flows, peak flows also roughly correspond
to volumetric flows. It is also important to keep in mind that an extended
period of much above normal temperatures or heavy rainfall during the melt
period can cause or exacerbate flooding problems in any year.

A list of specific spring peak flow forecasts are available at:
http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/rmap/peak/peaklist.php

A map of the current spring peak flow forecasts is available at:
http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/lmap/lmap.php?interface=peak

MEAN DAILY PEAK FLOW FORECASTS IN CFS

LOCATION                   FLOOD     FCST   FORECAST FLOWS
                            FLOW     DATE      90%    75%    50%    25%    10%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YAMPA - STEAMBOAT SPRINGS   5930 2016-05-01   2700   2900   3200   3800   4300
ELK - MILNER, NR            5718 2016-05-01   2800   3000   3500   4100   4700
YAMPA - MAYBELL, NR        21241 2016-05-01   7200   7600   8500   9300  10500
LITTLE SNAKE - LILY, NR     -999 2016-05-01   see current forecast hydrograph
YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK     20685 2016-05-01  10500  11500  12500  13500  15000
WHITE - MEEKER, NR          8597 2016-05-01   1900   2200   2400   2500   2800
SNAKE - MONTEZUMA, NR       2200 2016-05-01    250    300    350    450    500
TENMILE CK - FRISCO, N TE   1550 2016-05-01    550    650    700    850    950
STRAIGHT CK - LASKEY GULC    440 2016-05-01     70     80     90    120    150
EAGLE - GYPSUM, BLO         6500 2016-05-01   2400   2600   3000   4000   5000
COLORADO - DOTSERO, NR     17000 2016-05-01   5500   6500   7200   9500  12000
CRYSTAL - REDSTONE, NR, A   3100 2016-05-01   1200   1300   1600   1800   2100
ROARING FORK - GLENWOOD S  17000 2016-05-01   3700   4000   4600   6000   6700
COLORADO - CAMEO, NR       26000 2016-05-01  11000  12000  14000  18000  22000
EAST - ALMONT               3170 2016-05-01    900   1100   1200   1400   1600
NF GUNNISON - SOMERSET, N  13100 2016-05-01   2000   2100   2300   2600   3600
SURFACE CK - CEDAREDGE      1320 2016-05-01    130    140    190    250    280
GUNNISON - GRAND JUNCTION  19470 2016-05-01   7000   8000   8000   8000   8500
DOLORES - RICO, BLO         1750 2016-05-01    650    750    830    920    970
DOLORES - DOLORES           7130 2016-05-01   1950   2100   2300   2600   2800
SAN MIGUEL - PLACERVILLE,   3190 2016-05-01    880    970   1040   1170   1280
COLORADO - CO-UT STATE LI  46000 2016-05-01  17000  18500  21000  28000  33000
SAN JUAN - PAGOSA SPRINGS   5000 2016-05-01   1600   1770   1950   2150   2300
ANIMAS - DURANGO           10200 2016-05-01   2600   2800   3000   3400   3800
ANIMAS - FARMINGTON         9110 2016-05-01   2800   2900   3200   3700   4200
MANCOS - MANCOS, NR         2970 2016-05-01    250    270    300    350    490




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.