Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS

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000
FGUS65 KSTR 041914
ESGCO

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UT


                      SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL
             FOR THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN WITHIN COLORADO

                         APRIL 4, 2014


The 2014 spring runoff flood potential due to snowmelt is higher than usual at
this time for the Yampa/White, Upper Colorado mainstem, and Gunnison basins and
not high for the Dolores and San Juan basins.  It should be emphasized that
snow typically accumulates into April, therefore conditions could still change
before the runoff begins.  Depending upon future precipitation and temperatures,
western Colorado rivers and streams will have to be monitored closely during
the runoff.

Currently, the following sites are forecast to peak at or above the flood flow
at the given exceedance level for the mean daily peak forecast:
   Yampa River at Steamboat Springs     10%
   Elk River near Milner                10%
   Eagle River below Gypsum             10%
   Colorado River near Dotsero          10%
   Colorado River near Cameo            10%
   East River near Almont               10%
   Colorado River near Stateline        10%

Forecasts of instantaneous peaks are based on the historical relationship
between observed mean daily and instantaneous peaks.  At this time, the
following additional sites are forecast to peak at or above the flood flow at
the given exceedance level for the instantaneous peak forecast:
   Tenmile Creek at Frisco              10%

Keep in mind specific forecast procedures and flood flow levels do not exist
for all streams.  However, given the current snowpack, above average peaks can
be anticipated across much of western Colorado.

March precipitation was near to above average in the headwaters of the Yampa
and Upper Colorado mainstem basins, but below average in the Gunnison, Dolores
and San Juan basins.  April 1st snow water equivalent remained much above
average in the Yampa/White and Upper Colorado mainstem basins.  It was near
average in the Gunnison Basin and below to much below average in the Dolores
and San Juan basins.

Although spring temperatures affect the pattern of snowmelt runoff and
consequently the magnitude of peak flows, peak flows also roughly correspond
to volumetric flows. It is also important to keep in mind that an extended
period of much above normal temperatures or heavy rainfall during the melt
period can cause or exacerbate flooding problems in any year.

A list of specific spring peak flow forecasts are available at:
http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/rmap/peak/peaklist.php

A map of the current spring peak flow forecasts is available at:
http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapbeta.php?interface=peak

MEAN DAILY PEAK FLOW FORECASTS IN CFS
ISSUED 4/1/2014

LOCATION                   FLOOD  FORECAST FLOWS
                            FLOW     90%    75%    50%    25%    10%
----------------------------------------------------------------------
YAMPA - STEAMBOAT SPRINGS   5930    3500   4000   4500   5000   6000
ELK - MILNER, NR            5749    3500   4000   5000   5500   6500
YAMPA - MAYBELL, NR        21200    9500  10500  11500  12500  15500
LITTLE SNAKE - LILY, NR     -999    4000   4500   5500   6000   7000
YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK      -999   13500  15500  16500  17500  22000
WHITE - MEEKER, NR          7700    2000   2500   3000   3500   4000
SNAKE - MONTEZUMA, NR       2080     500    550    650    700    850
TENMILE CK - FRISCO, N TE   1640     850    900   1050   1200   1500
STRAIGHT CK - LASKEY GULC    410     120    140    170    180    220
EAGLE - GYPSUM, BLO         6530    3200   3600   4400   5200   6800
COLORADO - DOTSERO, NR     17000    8900   9500  11500  14500  20000
CRYSTAL - REDSTONE, NR, A   3470    1500   1700   2100   2400   2800
ROARING FORK - GLENWOOD S  17100    5000   5500   6300   7700   9100
COLORADO - CAMEO, NR       26000   15000  17000  20000  24000  33000
EAST - ALMONT               3170    1900   2200   2500   2800   3300
NF GUNNISON - SOMERSET, N  14280    2600   3100   3700   4000   4800
SURFACE CK - CEDAREDGE      1360     120    160    220    290    340
GUNNISON - GRAND JUNCTION  19520    8000   9500  11000  13500  15000
COLORADO - CO-UT STATE LI  46200   22000  25000  31000  38000  50000
DOLORES - DOLORES           7770    2100   2400   2800   3200   3600
SAN MIGUEL - PLACERVILLE,   2990     950   1100   1230   1400   1600
SAN JUAN - PAGOSA SPRINGS   5000    1400   1600   1800   2000   2300
ANIMAS - DURANGO            9560    3200   3600   4500   4900   5300
ANIMAS - FARMINGTON         8810    3200   3700   4600   5100   5500
MANCOS - MANCOS, NR         2850     150    180    220    270    360


CBRFC/Alcorn



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