Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2
000
FGUS63 KMSR 201747
ESGDES

DES MOINES RIVER BASIN
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1246 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:East Fork Des Moines River
AGNI4            17.0   18.0   22.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
DAKI4            20.0   24.0   28.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Boone River
WBCI4            14.0   17.0   19.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Beaver Creek
GRMI4            14.0   16.0   17.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:North Raccoon River
EFWI4            19.0   21.0   23.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
PROI4            15.0   18.0   20.0     7   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:South Raccoon River
REDI4            20.0   24.0   27.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Raccoon River
VNMI4            17.0   22.0   23.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
DMWI4            36.0   38.0   40.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
DEMI4            12.0   16.0   25.0    18   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:North River
NRWI4            22.0   25.0   26.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Middle River
IDNI4            23.0   26.0   28.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:South River
AKWI4            29.0   30.0   32.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cedar Creek
BSSI4            25.0   30.0   32.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Des Moines River
JCKM5            12.0   14.0   16.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
ESVI4             8.0   13.0   14.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
EMTI4            11.0   13.0   15.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
HBTI4            10.0   13.0   14.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
FODI4            10.5   16.0   17.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
STRI4            21.0   25.0   27.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
DMOI4            23.0   26.0   30.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
DESI4            24.0   26.0   30.0     7   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
EDYI4            61.0   68.0   70.0    18   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
OTMI4            11.0   15.0   19.0    15   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
KEQI4            22.0   25.0   27.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
SFLM7            18.0   22.0   25.0    18   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1020 Z DH12 /DC1410201746/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:East Fork Des Moines River
AGNI4       7.5/    7.5/    7.6/    9.9/   12.4/   13.5/   14.0
DAKI4       8.2/    8.2/    8.3/    9.6/   10.7/   11.5/   11.9
:Boone River
WBCI4       2.1/    2.1/    2.6/    4.4/    6.0/    6.9/    8.2
:Beaver Creek
GRMI4       3.7/    3.7/    4.3/    6.4/    8.7/   11.0/   11.6
:North Raccoon River
EFWI4       5.4/    5.4/    6.7/    8.2/   10.2/   12.6/   13.0
PROI4       4.8/    4.8/    7.2/    9.7/   13.5/   14.8/   16.5
:South Raccoon River
REDI4       3.7/    3.9/    5.2/    6.4/    8.4/    9.7/   13.5
:Raccoon River
VNMI4       4.9/    4.9/    6.5/    7.9/   11.6/   14.1/   16.0
DMWI4      23.2/   23.3/   25.5/   27.6/   31.4/   33.8/   34.8
DEMI4       2.4/    2.6/    4.7/    7.1/   11.3/   13.5/   14.7
:North River
NRWI4       8.3/    8.3/    9.1/   13.0/   16.4/   19.6/   21.7
:Middle River
IDNI4       8.2/    9.1/   11.5/   14.2/   15.9/   18.5/   22.8
:South River
AKWI4       7.3/    7.4/    9.1/   11.2/   12.5/   20.8/   24.1
:Cedar Creek
BSSI4       5.9/    6.6/    8.3/   10.6/   13.5/   16.6/   20.2
:Des Moines River
JCKM5       4.0/    4.0/    4.0/    4.0/    4.3/    5.3/    5.5
ESVI4       2.4/    2.4/    2.4/    2.4/    3.0/    3.5/    3.7
EMTI4       0.9/    0.9/    0.9/    1.5/    2.8/    3.6/    4.3
HBTI4       3.8/    3.8/    3.8/    4.7/    5.9/    6.7/    8.0
FODI4       4.1/    4.1/    4.2/    5.2/    6.4/    7.3/    8.2
STRI4       6.0/    6.0/    6.5/    8.2/   10.3/   12.7/   14.5
DMOI4      15.6/   15.6/   16.0/   16.9/   19.7/   20.0/   20.1
DESI4      12.1/   12.2/   14.0/   16.5/   22.3/   23.9/   24.8
EDYI4      56.2/   56.2/   56.2/   57.0/   60.3/   61.4/   61.7
OTMI4       6.9/    6.9/    6.9/    7.5/   10.5/   11.6/   13.3
KEQI4      15.1/   15.1/   15.1/   15.7/   18.1/   19.9/   20.7
SFLM7      13.3/   13.3/   13.3/   14.1/   17.1/   19.5/   20.2
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1020 Z DH12 /DC1410201746/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:East Fork Des Moines River
AGNI4       7.4/    7.3/    7.3/    7.2/    7.0/    6.9/    6.9
DAKI4       8.1/    8.0/    7.9/    7.7/    7.6/    7.6/    7.6
:Boone River
WBCI4       2.1/    2.1/    2.0/    1.9/    1.9/    1.9/    1.9
:Beaver Creek
GRMI4       3.5/    3.5/    3.2/    3.0/    2.8/    2.8/    2.8
:North Raccoon River
EFWI4       5.5/    5.4/    5.3/    5.1/    5.0/    4.9/    4.9
PROI4       4.8/    4.7/    4.5/    4.2/    3.8/    3.6/    3.6
:South Raccoon River
REDI4       3.5/    3.4/    3.3/    3.2/    3.1/    3.0/    3.0
:Raccoon River
VNMI4       4.7/    4.4/    4.1/    3.9/    3.7/    3.5/    3.4
DMWI4      23.0/   22.6/   22.3/   22.1/   21.8/   21.5/   21.5
DEMI4       2.1/    1.8/    1.4/    1.1/    0.9/    0.7/    0.6
:North River
NRWI4       6.9/    6.3/    5.7/    5.5/    5.3/    5.3/    5.3
:Middle River
IDNI4       7.4/    7.1/    6.9/    6.7/    6.6/    6.5/    6.5
:South River
AKWI4       6.6/    6.4/    6.1/    6.1/    6.0/    6.0/    6.0
:Cedar Creek
BSSI4       5.5/    5.3/    5.2/    5.1/    5.1/    5.0/    5.0
:Des Moines River
JCKM5       3.9/    3.9/    3.7/    3.6/    3.6/    3.6/    3.6
ESVI4       2.4/    2.4/    2.2/    2.1/    2.1/    2.1/    2.1
EMTI4       0.9/    0.9/    0.7/    0.5/    0.4/    0.4/    0.4
HBTI4       3.6/    3.4/    3.3/    3.1/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0
FODI4       3.9/    3.8/    3.6/    3.5/    3.3/    3.2/    3.2
STRI4       5.8/    5.6/    5.4/    5.2/    4.9/    4.9/    4.8
DMOI4      15.3/   15.3/   15.0/   14.9/   14.7/   14.7/   14.6
DESI4      11.4/   11.2/   10.5/   10.3/   10.0/    9.7/    9.6
EDYI4      51.1/   50.4/   49.7/   49.2/   48.8/   48.5/   48.4
OTMI4       3.3/    2.7/    2.2/    1.8/    1.5/    1.3/    1.2
KEQI4      12.4/   11.7/   11.1/   10.9/   10.6/   10.4/   10.3
SFLM7       9.2/    8.3/    7.6/    7.3/    6.9/    6.5/    6.4
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.