Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1
000
FGUS63 KMSR 231612
ESGEWS

EASTERN TRIBUTARIES TO LAKE MICHIGAN
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1012 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 12/29/2014 - 3/29/2015

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Oconto River
OCTW3             9.0   12.0   14.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Wolf River
LGLW3            11.5   12.5   14.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
SHIW3            11.0   13.5   15.0    31   20   <5   <5   <5   <5
NEWW3             9.0   10.5   11.1    17   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Little Wolf River
ROYW3             5.0    8.0   10.0    15   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Waupaca River
WPCW3             6.0    7.5    9.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Fox River
BERW3            13.0   14.5   16.0     6    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
APLW3             8.4    9.0   10.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Sheboygan River
SEBW3             8.0   10.0   12.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Root River
FRKW3             8.0   10.0   12.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Root River Canal
RAYW3             9.0   11.0   12.0    <5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Root River
RACW3             7.0    7.5    8.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Milwaukee River
CEDW3            11.0   13.0   14.0     6    7   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1222 Z DH12 /DC1412221612/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 12/29/2014 - 3/29/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Oconto River
OCTW3       5.9/    5.9/    6.0/    6.5/    7.3/    8.1/    9.2
:Wolf River
LGLW3       8.1/    8.2/    8.8/    9.4/    9.9/   10.4/   10.6
SHIW3       8.1/    8.2/    8.6/   10.1/   11.5/   12.6/   13.2
NEWW3       6.3/    6.4/    7.0/    7.9/    8.8/    9.3/    9.9
:Little Wolf River
ROYW3       2.1/    2.3/    2.8/    3.6/    4.6/    5.5/    6.2
:Waupaca River
WPCW3       1.8/    2.0/    2.3/    2.7/    3.4/    4.0/    4.8
:Fox River
BERW3      10.0/   10.0/   10.3/   11.5/   12.1/   12.6/   13.4
APLW3       6.2/    6.3/    6.3/    6.6/    7.1/    7.5/    7.9
:Sheboygan River
SEBW3       3.4/    3.8/    4.5/    5.5/    6.3/    7.1/    7.8
:Root River
FRKW3       4.5/    4.9/    5.6/    6.4/    6.9/    7.2/    7.5
:Root River Canal
RAYW3       4.1/    4.6/    5.4/    6.4/    7.5/    8.3/    8.8
:Root River
RACW3       3.8/    4.0/    4.2/    4.6/    4.9/    5.4/    5.9
:Milwaukee River
CEDW3       6.6/    7.0/    7.7/    9.0/    9.9/   10.8/   11.4
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1222 Z DH12 /DC1412221612/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 12/29/2014 - 3/29/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Oconto River
OCTW3       4.7/    4.7/    4.6/    4.5/    4.5/    4.5/    4.5
:Wolf River
LGLW3       7.7/    7.7/    7.7/    7.7/    7.6/    7.6/    7.6
SHIW3       3.9/    3.4/    2.9/    2.6/    2.5/    2.4/    2.4
NEWW3       2.9/    2.7/    2.3/    2.3/    2.2/    2.1/    2.1
:Little Wolf River
ROYW3       1.3/    1.2/    1.2/    1.1/    1.1/    1.1/    1.1
:Waupaca River
WPCW3       1.5/    1.5/    1.4/    1.4/    1.4/    1.3/    1.3
:Fox River
BERW3       9.1/    9.0/    8.7/    8.2/    8.0/    7.8/    7.8
APLW3       5.6/    5.6/    5.5/    5.4/    5.4/    5.3/    5.3
:Sheboygan River
SEBW3       2.1/    2.1/    2.0/    1.9/    1.9/    1.8/    1.8
:Root River
FRKW3       2.2/    2.2/    2.1/    2.0/    2.0/    1.9/    1.9
:Root River Canal
RAYW3       2.2/    2.2/    2.2/    2.1/    2.0/    1.9/    1.9
:Root River
RACW3       2.6/    2.6/    2.5/    2.4/    2.3/    2.3/    2.3
:Milwaukee River
CEDW3       5.6/    5.6/    5.5/    5.4/    5.4/    5.4/    5.4
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.