Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FGUS64 KTUA 281813
ESGICT

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
ARKANSAS-RED BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER, TULSA, OK
112 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
             Valid  8/28/2014 - 11/27/2014

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR MOD MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
-------- ----- ----- -----: ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----

:Arkansas River
GTBK1            12.0   16.0   18.3    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
HCHK1             8.0   13.0   19.0    <5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
HAVK1            10.0   11.0   12.0     7    8    5    7   <5    6
DRBK1            12.0   15.0   16.2    11    9    7    6    6    5
MULK1            16.5   19.0   21.0    13    9    7    6   <5   <5
OXFK1            17.0   20.0   23.0    18   13    9    7   <5   <5
ARCK1            17.0   23.0   27.0    24   22    9    7   <5   <5

:Walnut Creek
ALBK1            24.0   25.0   25.7    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:Cow Creek
LYNK1            18.0   22.0   24.7     7   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:Little Arkansas River
ALMK1            22.0   25.0   27.0    15   16   11   11   <5    5
HTDK1            25.0   27.0   29.0    12   12    9    8   <5   <5
SEDK1            22.0   25.0   26.0    13   13    9    9    8    8

:Cowskin Creek
COWK1            18.0   22.0   24.0    17    8   <5   <5   <5   <5

:South Fork Ninnescah River
MDKK1             8.0   10.0   12.0    14   18    5    6   <5   <5

:Ninnescah River
PECK1            17.0   21.0   26.0     7    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
BLPK1            23.0   24.5   26.0     8    7    6    5   <5   <5

:Whitewater River
TOWK1            22.0   25.0   28.0    12   11    7    6   <5   <5
AGSK1            21.0   25.0   30.0    12   11    6    5   <5   <5

:West Branch Walnut River
EDWK1            21.0   22.0   24.0     8   <5    8   <5    6   <5

:Walnut River
EDEK1            19.0   23.0   25.6    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
AGAK1            23.0   28.0   36.0    11   11    5   <5   <5   <5
WFDK1            18.0   22.0   29.0    21   23   14   18    7    9
ARKK1            18.0   22.0   28.0    19   19   10   11   <5   <5

:Chikaskia River
CBNK1            10.0   19.0   28.0    35   43   <5   <5   <5   <5

:Fall River
FRNK1            17.0   27.0   36.0    18   19    6    7   <5   <5

:Verdigris River
ATOK1            19.0   21.0   26.0    13   13    7    6   <5   <5
IDPK1            30.0   47.6   53.0    19   19   <5   <5   <5   <5
CFVK1            18.0   23.0   26.5    16   16    7    6   <5   <5

:Cottonwood River
FLRK1            22.0   27.0   32.0    10   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
CTWK1             9.0   11.0   18.0    11   24    8   16   <5   <5
PLYK1            32.0   34.0   37.0    12   27    8   11   <5   <5

:Neosho River
IOLK1            15.0   21.0   27.0    17   16   <5    5   <5   <5
CNUK1            23.0   28.5   35.0    38   24   23   15    5   <5
EREK1            29.0   32.0   36.0    36   22   29   17   18   11
PPFK1            21.0   23.0   32.0    39   26   31   20   <5   <5
OSWK1            17.0   20.0   25.0    39   28   29   19    6    7

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B TUA 0828 Z DH12 /DC201408281812/DRD+6/DVD91/HGVFZXT
.B1 /HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH/HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF

:    Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations
:            Valid  8/28/2014 - 11/27/2014
:
:        95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
:        ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
:Arkansas River
GTBK1    1.6/   1.6/   1.9/   2.4/   4.6/   6.8/   7.5
HCHK1    1.3/   1.4/   1.8/   2.6/   4.1/   5.5/   7.6
HAVK1    2.3/   2.4/   3.3/   4.5/   6.3/   8.4/  11.2
DRBK1    1.5/   1.9/   2.5/   4.4/   6.1/  12.7/  17.1
MULK1    7.0/   7.5/   8.0/   9.4/  11.4/  18.1/  20.3
OXFK1    7.8/   8.1/   8.9/  11.5/  14.8/  19.8/  22.8
ARCK1    9.8/  10.0/  10.7/  13.3/  16.7/  22.5/  25.9

:Walnut Creek
ALBK1    5.7/   5.7/   5.7/   7.1/  11.0/  16.2/  20.8

:Cow Creek
LYNK1    4.6/   4.6/   8.0/  10.8/  15.7/  17.7/  18.5

:Little Arkansas River
ALMK1   -0.1/   0.0/   3.5/  10.3/  15.8/  26.0/  26.9
HTDK1    5.6/   5.6/   8.0/  12.8/  16.9/  26.8/  28.1
SEDK1    2.5/   2.6/   5.5/   9.4/  14.2/  24.4/  28.7

:Cowskin Creek
COWK1    7.1/   7.1/   9.6/  12.9/  15.4/  20.4/  20.9

:South Fork Ninnescah River
MDKK1    3.7/   3.8/   4.3/   5.2/   6.5/   8.7/  10.0

:Ninnescah River
PECK1    3.1/   3.3/   4.5/   8.1/  10.7/  15.6/  19.0
BLPK1    9.0/   9.3/  10.8/  13.5/  16.2/  21.8/  25.5

:Whitewater River
TOWK1    2.1/   2.1/   4.3/   8.0/  13.2/  23.6/  26.2
AGSK1    4.2/   4.5/   5.8/   9.5/  15.0/  22.3/  26.4

:West Branch Walnut River
EDWK1    5.5/   5.5/   7.1/   8.5/  12.2/  19.5/  25.8

:Walnut River
EDEK1    1.9/   2.1/   2.9/   4.0/   7.8/  12.0/  16.5
AGAK1    5.5/   5.6/   6.7/   8.9/  18.0/  23.8/  28.2
WFDK1    1.3/   2.0/   3.7/   8.4/  15.9/  24.7/  33.2
ARKK1    2.6/   3.1/   5.1/   9.3/  15.3/  22.2/  23.9

:Chikaskia River
CBNK1    2.1/   2.1/   2.7/   8.3/  11.3/  14.5/  16.4

:Fall River
FRNK1    3.2/   3.4/   4.7/   8.4/  13.0/  22.5/  29.6

:Verdigris River
ATOK1    3.3/   3.6/   4.6/   9.1/  14.6/  20.3/  21.7
IDPK1    2.5/   3.0/   6.7/  16.6/  24.8/  38.0/  41.1
CFVK1    0.3/   0.8/   1.9/   5.2/  11.9/  22.2/  23.8

:Cottonwood River
FLRK1    3.2/   3.2/   3.5/   4.4/   8.6/  22.7/  26.2
CTWK1    0.6/   0.6/   1.2/   2.2/   4.9/   9.4/  14.3
PLYK1    2.6/   3.0/   5.5/   9.8/  24.1/  33.7/  34.9

:Neosho River
IOLK1    7.1/   7.3/   8.1/   9.9/  12.2/  18.2/  20.1
CNUK1    8.8/  10.4/  13.3/  19.0/  28.1/  32.8/  35.2
EREK1   12.1/  13.9/  16.7/  22.8/  34.0/  38.7/  41.5
PPFK1    8.1/   9.7/  12.2/  18.4/  24.6/  26.5/  28.2
OSWK1    6.7/   8.0/   9.8/  13.7/  21.6/  23.6/  25.4

:Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued monthly
:throughout the year.

.END

$$




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