Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS

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000
FGUS63 KMSR 212030
ESGKBM

KASKASKIA AND BIG MUDDY RIVER BASINS
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
330 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Kaskaskia River
CRLI2           423.5  431.0  435.0     6   29   <5   <5   <5   <5
VNDI2            18.0   24.0   26.0    38   44   13   16   <5    6
:Big Muddy River
PLMI2            20.0   25.0   34.0    16   18    7    7   <5   <5
MURI2            22.0   28.0   36.0    26   30   15   15   <5    6

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0421 Z DH12 /DC1404212030/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Kaskaskia River
CRLI2     413.6/  413.6/  416.4/  418.0/  421.0/  422.6/  424.2
VNDI2       4.3/    4.7/    9.8/   16.2/   21.5/   24.8/   25.4
:Big Muddy River
PLMI2      10.9/   10.9/   11.2/   15.2/   19.6/   23.9/   30.2
MURI2      12.2/   12.2/   12.4/   16.0/   22.5/   31.3/   36.3
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0421 Z DH12 /DC1404212030/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Kaskaskia River
CRLI2     412.0/  411.1/  411.1/  411.1/  411.1/  411.1/  411.1
VNDI2       4.2/    3.1/    2.7/    2.4/    2.2/    2.1/    2.1
:Big Muddy River
PLMI2       6.6/    5.9/    5.1/    4.3/    3.9/    3.8/    3.6
MURI2       8.0/    6.7/    5.5/    4.7/    4.6/    4.5/    4.5
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$




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