Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS

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FGUS63 KKRF 211436
ESGMDC

LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
109 AM CST TUE NOV 21 2017

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD:  11/25/2017  - 02/23/2018

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:MARAIS DES CYGNES R AT READING KS 3N
RDNK1              19.0  21.0  45.0    <5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:MARAIS DES CYGNES R AT QUENEMO KS 2S
QNMK1              17.0  24.5  40.5     7   13   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SALT CR AT LYNDON KS 3ENE
LNDK1              10.0  16.0  24.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:MARAIS DES CYGNES R AT OTTAWA KS
OTWK1              31.0  33.0  45.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:POTTAWATOMIE CR AT SCIPIO KS 1SE
SIPK1              23.0  25.0  38.0    <5   14   <5   10   <5   <5
:POTTAWATOMIE CR AT LANE KS NO.2
LNEK1              23.0  24.0  28.5    <5    9   <5    5   <5   <5
:MARAIS DES CYGNES R AT OSAWATOMIE KS
OSMK1              28.0  45.0  48.0     7   15   <5   <5   <5   <5
:MARAIS DES CYGNES R AT LA CYGNE KS 1W
LCGK1              25.0  30.0  36.0    12   17   <5    7   <5   <5
:MARAIS DES CYGNES R AT TRADING POST KS
TPOK1              27.0  29.0  40.0     7   10    6    9   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 1125 Z DH12 /DC1711210109/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF

:                CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 11/25/2017  - 02/23/2018

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:MARAIS DES CYGNES R
RDNK1       2.2/    2.2/    2.2/    2.6/    3.6/    4.5/    7.5
QNMK1       3.3/    3.3/    3.5/    4.5/    8.6/   13.9/   21.4

:SALT CR
LNDK1       0.5/    0.6/    0.7/    1.1/    1.9/    4.5/    6.6

:MARAIS DES CYGNES R
OTWK1       6.0/    6.0/    6.0/    7.2/   11.3/   17.8/   27.2

:POTTAWATOMIE CR
SIPK1       3.2/    3.2/    6.0/   10.6/   13.9/   19.3/   21.2
LNEK1       5.7/    5.9/    6.9/    8.3/    9.8/   15.3/   18.8

:MARAIS DES CYGNES R
OSMK1      15.3/   15.3/   15.5/   16.4/   19.4/   24.5/   29.0
LCGK1       5.7/    6.5/    7.5/   10.1/   13.7/   28.4/   29.3
TPOK1       5.6/    6.9/    7.5/   12.2/   15.2/   25.4/   29.9
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 1125 Z DH12 /DC1711210109/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF

:            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 11/25/2017  - 02/23/2018

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:MARAIS DES CYGNES R
RDNK1       1.9/    1.9/    1.9/    1.9/    1.9/    1.9/    1.9
QNMK1       0.7/    0.7/    0.7/    0.7/    0.7/    0.7/    0.7

:SALT CR
LNDK1       0.5/    0.5/    0.5/    0.5/    0.5/    0.5/    0.5

:MARAIS DES CYGNES R
OTWK1       3.6/    3.6/    3.6/    3.6/    3.6/    3.5/    3.5

:POTTAWATOMIE CR
SIPK1       3.1/    3.1/    3.0/    2.9/    2.9/    2.8/    2.8
LNEK1       5.7/    5.7/    5.7/    5.6/    5.6/    5.6/    5.6

:MARAIS DES CYGNES R
OSMK1      13.2/   13.2/   13.2/   13.2/   13.2/   13.1/   13.1
LCGK1       4.4/    4.4/    4.4/    4.3/    4.3/    4.3/    4.3
TPOK1       4.2/    4.2/    4.2/    4.1/    4.1/    4.1/    4.1

:Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

.END

$$




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