Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS

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FGUS65 KSTR 101602
ESGNM
TTAA00 KSLR DDHHMM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY UT
JAN 10, 2017

 SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

The 2017 spring runoff flood potential due to snow melt is not considered
high at this time. Although snowpack is above average it is still below
the seasonal peak that typically occurs in April. At this early point
in the season it is too early to determine the spring runoff flood
potential with much certainty.

As of early January snowpack in the San Juan Basin is near 125 percent of
median above Navajo Reservoir and 135 percent of median in the Animas
River Basin. Both of these areas are about 65% of the annual spring peak.

April-July streamflow volume forecasts issued in early January
range from 80 to 110 percent of average.

High flows are possible in any year given the right conditions such
as rapidly melting snow or heavy rain that occurs during the snow
melt period.

Further assessment will be made regarding any snow melt flood threat as
the season progresses.

G. Smith/ CBRFC

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