Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Lower Mississippi RFC

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FGUS64 KORN 032033
ESGORN

FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER, SLIDELL LA
226 PM CST WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 3 2016

EAST TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION - SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
              NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER - SLIDELL, LA
          VALID FOR THURSDAY FEBRUARY 4 2016


STREAMFLOW DATA PROVIDED BY THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY AND
THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS.

...FOR EASTERN REGION...WFOS GSP AND RNK ONLY...

...INTRODUCTION...

THE TRENDS IN PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST TWO WEEKS HAS GENERALLY BEEN
ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEST NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS HAVE OCCURRED DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES
HAS MELTED ANY REMAINING SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

REGION WIDE...STREAMFLOW AND SOIL MOISTURE VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL OVER
WEST NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS INDICATE
WIDESPREAD 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
AND WEST NORTH CAROLINA.

...FRENCH BROAD/UPPER PIGEON...LITTLE TENNESSEE...TUCKASEGEE
...AND HIWASSEE BASINS (WFO GSP)...

STREAMFLOWS AND SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT ARE RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL ALONG ALL
RIVERS IN THE OUTLOOK AREA. MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING ON PORTIONS
OF THE FRENCH BROAD RIVER AND MODERATE RISES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW.

                                            1/7   1/20   2/3
FRENCH BROAD RIVER          ASHEVILLE NC    191%  145%  706%
PIGEON RIVER                    HEPCO NC    185%  122%  890%
TUCKASEGEE RIVER          BRYSON CITY NC    181%  133%  724%
LITTLE TENNESSEE RIVER       NEEDMORE NC    205%  136%  707%

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT...STREAMFLOWS...AND CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER OUTLOOKS...AN ABOVE AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED FOR THE FRENCH
BROAD...UPPER LITTLE TENNESSEE...TUCKASEGEE...AND PIGEON RIVER BASINS.


...UPPER CLINCH AND UPPER HOLSTON BASINS (WFO RNK)...

STREAMFLOWS AND SOIL MOISTURE ARE RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE UPPER
CLINCH AND UPPER HOLSTON RIVERS. NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING BUT MODERATE RISES
ARE OCCURRING OR EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OBSERVED DAILY
STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW.

                                           1/7   1/20   2/3
N FORK HOLSTON RIVER        SALTVILLE VA   101%   93%  625%
MID FORK HOLSTON RVR  SEVEN MILE FORD VA   130%   92%  635%

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT...STREAMFLOWS...AND CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER OUTLOOKS...AN ABOVE AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPPER
CLINCH AND UPPER HOLSTON RIVER BASINS.


...EXTENDED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES
CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE/BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION.

THE 30-DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST NORTH CAROLINA. THERE ARE CHANCES OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR WEST NORTH CAROLINA.

THE 90-DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES
CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND EQUAL CHANCES
OVER WEST NORTH CAROLINA. EQUAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST FOR
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST FOR
WEST NORTH CAROLINA.

THE NEXT SPRINGFLOOD OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED TO BE RELEASED ON FEBRUARY 17 2016.

$$



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