Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Lower Mississippi RFC

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FGUS64 KORN 151940
ESGORN

Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service
Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center, Slidell LA
130 PM CST Wednesday February 15 2017

East Tennessee Valley and Central Region - Spring Flood Potential Outlook
              National Weather Service
Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center - Slidell, LA
          valid for Thursday February 16 2017


Streamflow data provided by the U.S. Geological Survey and
the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

...For Eastern Region...WFOS GSP AND RNK Only...

...Introduction...

During the past two weeks, several rounds of precipitation occurred over
southwest Virginia and west Tennessee with amounts ranging from .5 to 2 inches.
Cooler temperatures overnight resulted in some 1 to 3 inches of snowfall over
the higher elevations.

Region wide...streamflow and soil moisture values are generally below normal
over west North Carolina and near seasonal levels in southwest Virginia.

The current precipitation forecast for the next seven days indicate
widespread mean areal amounts of .25 inches or less over southwest Virginia and
west North Carolina.

...French Broad/Upper Pigeon...Little Tennessee...Tuckasegee
...and Hiwassee Basins (WFO GSP)...

Streamflows continue to run below normal along all rivers in the outlook area.
Soil moisture content is also below normal. No flooding is occurring or forecast
at this time. Observed daily streamflows as a percent of median are given below.

          1/4 1/18  2/1  2/15
French Broad River          Asheville NC     78%  42%  47%   42%
Pigeon River                    Hepco NC     74%  39%  52%   50%
Tuckasegee River          Bryson City NC     61%  67%  54%   47%
Little Tennessee River       Needmore NC     76%  34%  38%   33%

Based on existing soil moisture content...streamflows...and Climate Prediction
Center outlooks...a Below Average Flood Potential is expected for the French
Broad...Upper Little Tennessee...Tuckasegee...and Pigeon River Basins.


...Upper Clinch and Upper Holston Basins (WFO RNK)...

Streamflows are running near normal. Soil moisture content is at seasonal levels
No flooding is occurring or expected during the next several days. Observed
daily streamflows as a percent of median are given below.

    1/4 1/18  2/1  2/15
N Fork Holston River        Saltville VA   217% 151%  95%   75%
Mid Fork Holston Rvr  Seven Mile Ford VA   167% 173%  92%   67%

Based on existing soil moisture content...streamflows...and Climate Prediction
Center Outlooks...an Average Flood Potential is expected for the upper Clinch
and upper Holston River Basins.


...For Central Region...WFOS SGF PAH AND LSX ONLY...


...Introduction...

Over the past several months...below normal precipitation has occurred over
the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. Warmer temperatures have kept
areas in the lower Mississippi River from receiving significant snow this
season. Snow depths of 5 to 20 inches are confined to portions of Minnesota and
Wisconsin. Snow water equivalents range from 0.5 TO 4 inches over this area.
The remainder of the area is snow free.

Soil moisture conditions are generally below normal over the lower Missouri and
middle Mississippi Valleys and near normal over lower Ohio Valley.

...Mississippi River below Chester IL AND Ohio River below
Smithland Dam IL (WFO PAH)...

The flood season has been uneventful on the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers.
Streamflows have been near normal and no flooding has occurred this season. The
current forecast shows no flooding over the next couple of weeks but rises may
occur later into March.

See the chart below for specific locations showing percent of normal
streamflows:

                                            2/15
Mississippi River              Thebes IL    127%
Ohio River                      Cairo IL     90%

Based on existing soil moisture...streamflow conditions...and normal
spring rainfall patterns...a Normal Flood Potential is expected along the
middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Rivers. The magnitude of future crests
will depend on the amount and extent of any upstream accumulation of snow
cover and resultant snowmelt; coupled with the frequency...intensity...and
extent of spring rains.


...St. Francis Basin of south Missouri (WFO PAH)...

Over the past 60 days, the St. Francis Basin has received below normal
precipitation and streamflow conditions accordingly have been below normal.
No flooding is occurring or expected during the next several days. Observed
daily streamflows as a percent of median are given below.

                                            2/15
St. Francis River           Patterson MO     39%

Based on existing soil moisture...streamflows...and normal spring rainfall
patterns...a Below Average Flood Potential is expected over the St. Francis
Basin. Percent of available flood control storage for the St. Francis Reservoirs
are given below.

                                             2/15
                      Wappapello Res. MO     100%


...Black/White Basins of south Missouri (WFO SGF/LSX/PAH)...

Below normal precipitation has occurred over the past 60 days and no significant
snow is present over the Black and White Basins. Soil moisture content and
streamflow conditions are below normal. No flooding is occurring or expected
during the next several days. Observed daily streamflow as a percent of median
are given below.


                                            2/15
Black River                 Annapolis MO     41%
Black River              Poplar Bluff MO     68%
James River                    Galena MO     32%

Based on existing soil moisture...streamflows...and normal spring rainfall
patterns...a Below Average Flood Potential is expected over the Black and White
Basins. Percent of available flood control storage for the Black/White Basin
Reservoirs are given below.

                                            2/18
                      Clearwater Res. MO    100%
                          Beaver Res. AR    100%
                      Table Rock Res. MO    100%
                     Bull Shoals Res. AR    100%
                         Norfork Res. AR    100%

...Extended Temperature and Precipitation Outlook...

The 8-14 Day Outlook issued by the NWS Climate Prediction Center indicates
chances of above normal temperatures. Chances of above normal precipitation
are expected over the Missouri, upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys and chances
of below normal precipitation are expected over the lower Mississippi Valley.

The 30 Day Outlook indicates chances of above normal temperatures across the
area and above normal chances of precipitation in the upper Mississippi and Ohio
Valleys. Equal chances of above/below normal precipitation is indicated over the
remainder of the area.

The 90 Day Outlook issued by the NWS Climate Prediction Center indicates
chances of above normal temperatures over the lower Mississippi Valley and equal
chances elsewhere. Chances of above normal precipitation are indicated over
portions of the Ohio and upper Mississippi Valleys. Chances of below normal
precipitation are indicated over the Gulf Coast.


The next springflood outlook is scheduled to be released on March 1 2017.

$$



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