Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS

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FGUS63 KMSR 231856
ESGSRS

SOURIS RIVER BASIN
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
155 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 7/28/2014 - 10/26/2014

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Des Lacs River
DESN8            16.0   18.0   19.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Souris River
SHWN8            18.0   20.0   25.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
FOXN8            10.0   13.0   15.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
MINN8            14.0   17.0   22.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
MION8          1549.0 1551.0 1555.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
LGNN8            34.0   36.0   38.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
SWRN8            22.0   24.0   26.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
VLVN8          1505.0 1510.0 1515.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Wintering River
KLSN8             7.0    9.0   10.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Souris River
TOWN8            52.0   54.0   56.0   >95    6    9   <5   <5   <5
BANN8            11.0   12.0   14.0   >95   <5   17   <5   <5   <5
:Willow Creek
WLCN8            10.0   14.0   16.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Souris River
WSTN8            10.0   14.0   16.0   >95   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0721 Z DH12 /DC1407211855/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 7/28/2014 - 10/26/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Des Lacs River
DESN8       6.1/    6.1/    6.1/    6.1/    6.3/    7.3/    7.8
:Souris River
SHWN8       4.8/    4.8/    4.8/    4.8/    5.1/    5.8/    6.6
FOXN8       7.4/    7.4/    7.4/    7.4/    7.4/    7.4/    7.5
MINN8       5.6/    5.6/    5.6/    5.6/    5.6/    6.0/    6.1
MION8    1541.3/ 1541.3/ 1541.3/ 1541.3/ 1541.3/ 1541.5/ 1541.8
LGNN8      24.0/   24.0/   24.0/   24.0/   24.4/   25.5/   26.7
SWRN8       8.9/    8.9/    8.9/    8.9/    9.3/   10.6/   12.3
VLVN8    1491.9/ 1491.9/ 1491.9/ 1491.9/ 1492.8/ 1495.2/ 1496.3
:Wintering River
KLSN8       5.3/    5.3/    5.3/    5.3/    5.3/    5.3/    5.3
:Souris River
TOWN8      53.0/   53.0/   53.0/   53.0/   53.0/   54.0/   54.8
BANN8      12.0/   12.0/   12.0/   12.0/   12.0/   12.3/   12.9
:Willow Creek
WLCN8       9.8/    9.8/    9.8/    9.8/    9.8/    9.8/    9.8
:Souris River
WSTN8      11.6/   11.6/   11.6/   11.6/   11.6/   11.6/   11.8
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0721 Z DH12 /DC1407211855/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 7/28/2014 - 10/26/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Des Lacs River
DESN8       5.3/    5.3/    5.2/    5.1/    5.1/    5.1/    5.1
:Souris River
SHWN8       3.9/    3.9/    3.9/    3.9/    3.9/    3.2/    2.6
FOXN8       6.7/    6.7/    6.7/    6.7/    6.7/    6.6/    6.4
MINN8       5.0/    5.0/    5.0/    5.0/    5.0/    5.0/    5.0
MION8    1540.8/ 1540.8/ 1540.8/ 1540.7/ 1540.7/ 1540.7/ 1540.7
LGNN8      22.8/   22.8/   22.8/   22.8/   22.8/   22.8/   22.8
SWRN8       7.6/    7.6/    7.6/    7.6/    7.6/    7.6/    7.6
VLVN8    1491.1/ 1491.1/ 1491.1/ 1491.1/ 1491.1/ 1491.1/ 1491.1
:Wintering River
KLSN8       2.2/    2.1/    2.0/    1.8/    1.8/    1.8/    1.8
:Souris River
TOWN8      49.3/   49.0/   48.9/   48.8/   48.8/   48.8/   48.8
BANN8       8.5/    8.3/    8.1/    7.9/    7.8/    7.8/    7.7
:Willow Creek
WLCN8       4.8/    4.7/    4.7/    4.6/    4.6/    4.6/    4.6
:Souris River
WSTN8       8.4/    8.3/    8.2/    8.2/    8.1/    8.1/    8.1
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$




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