Extended Streamflow Guidance
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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER TAUNTON MA
800 PM EDT WED APR 12 2017

...FOR OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE USE ONLY...

SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. /8/

THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IS
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MAINE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...NORTHEASTERN
VERMONT...THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OF VERMONT AND NEW YORK STATE...
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW
YORK STATE INCLUDING THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE CONNECTICUT RIVER.

THE SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK IS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK
STATE...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS HAS PASSED ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION...BUT STILL EXISTS IN THE NEAR TERM ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE.

...CLIMATE GUIDANCE...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUED INTO THE START OF APRIL 2017.
THERE HAVE BEEN THREE RECENT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS WHICH
HAVE HELPED BRING CURRENT APRIL PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES AND
STREAMFLOW LEVELS ABOVE NORMAL.

APRIL PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES HAVE AVERAGED FROM +0.50 INCH TO
+2.75 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH APRIL 10TH. THE HIGHEST DEPARTURES
WERE FOUND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND THE LOWEST
DEPARTURES WERE FOUND IN NORTHERN MAINE.

AFTER A COLD MARCH COMPARED TO DECEMBER JANUARY AND FEBRUARY WINTER
MONTHS...THE NORTHEAST HAS BEEN IN THE MIDST OF AN APRIL WARMUP.

APRIL TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES HAVE AVERAGED FROM NEAR NORMAL FROM
PROVIDENCE RI TO PORTLAND MAINE...AND +1 TO +5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

OVERALL WE EXPECT AN ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE WITH A FEW
PRECIPITATION EVENTS EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE NEAR TERM WARMTH AND PAUSE
IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN IN THE LONGER TERM OF
THE TWO WEEK OUTLOOK.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AROUND APRIL 16TH WHICH SHOULD
BRING LIGHT QPF. ANOTHER APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE SIGNIFICANT QPF TO THE REGION AROUND APRIL 20TH AND 21ST. SOME
OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AND MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE ADVERTISING A
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL LOW AROUND APRIL 26TH.

THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN (PNA) TELECONNECTION PHASE IS FORECAST TO
TURN MORE POSITIVE WHILE THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC OSCILLATION IS
FORECAST TO BECOME NEUTRAL. THIS SHOULD FAVOR SOME TROUGHING AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

THE OFFICIAL CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 6 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS APRIL 17-
25 2017 GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE FORECAST INDICATES
BEST CHANCES FOR NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS...

THE SNOWPACK IN APRIL HAS SEEN A CONSIDERABLE RETREAT DUE TO THE
ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NERFC SNOW
COVER AS OF APRIL 11TH ENCOMPASSED 31 PERCENT OF THE REGION WHILE
SNOW COVER ON APRIL 1ST HAD ENCOMPASSED 83 PERCENT OF THE REGION.

HOWEVER REMAINING SNOW DEPTHS AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS WERE STILL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS SOME PORTIONS OF THE FAR
NORTHERN ENGLAND BASINS.

...NEW YORK STATE...

THE GROUND IS BARE ACROSS MOST OF NEW YORK STATE EXCEPT PORTIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACK AND NEARBY LAKE CHAMPLAIN REGION.

SPOTTY SNOW DEPTHS OF AN INCH OR TWO REMAIN ACROSS THE TUG HILL
REGION. SNOW DEPTHS ON APRIL 11TH RANGED FROM 2 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS
THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE LAKE CHAMPLAIN REGION. SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS RANGED FROM 0.50 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN
ADIRONDACKS WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THERE ARE SOME POCKETS OF HIGHER SNOW DEPTHS IN THE INDIAN LAKE AND
SACANDAGA REGIONS ABOVE 1500FT. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM 2
TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THIS CONFINED HIGHER ELEVATION REGION.

...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

THE GROUND IS BARE ACROSS CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND AND MOST OF
MASSACHUSETTS EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE.

SPOTTY SNOW COVER OF AN INCH OR TWO REMAINS ACROSS THE DEEPER WOODED
AREAS OF THE FAR NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND IN WESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY.
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ACROSS THIS REGION RANGE FROM A TRACE UP TO
0.50 INCH AT ROWE AND WILLIAMSTOWN.

...VERMONT...

THE GROUND IS BARE ACROSS MOST OF THE LAKE CHAMPLAIN AREA WITH SOME
PATCHY LIGHT SNOW COVER OF AN INCH OR SO ACROSS DEEPER WOODED AREAS.
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ACROSS THIS REGION ARE NIL TO UNDER 0.50 INCH.

SNOW DEPTHS INCREASE MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL EASTERN AND NORTHERN
HIGH TERRAIN OF VERMONT. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT VARIATION DEPENDING ON
ELEVATION.

SNOW DEPTHS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT RANGE FROM NIL UP TO AN INCH OR
TWO...EXCEPT SIX INCHES ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN ABOVE 1000 FT. SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENTS IN THIS REGION RANGE FROM NIL TO LESS THAN 0.25
INCH...EXCEPT 2 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SNOW DEPTHS IN EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN VERMONT INCREASE MOSTLY WITH
ELEVATION. SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGE FROM NIL UP
TO A COUPLE OF INCHES. SNOW DEPTHS INCREASE TO 6 TO 12 INCHES ABOVE
1000 FT AND 1 TO 2 FEET ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM. WALDEN VERMONT REPORTED A SNOW DEPTH OF 28 INCHES APRIL
11TH.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM A TRACE UP TO AN INCH ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN ABOVE
1000 FT...EXCEPT 5 TO 9 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

MOUNT MANSFIELD SPOTTER REPORT APRIL 12TH INDICATED A 78 INCH SNOW
DEPTH AT 3000 FT...WITH A 20 INCH SNOW DEPTH AND 9 INCH SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT AT THE MIDWAY ELEVATION POINT.

THE HIGHEST SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE UPPER
PORTIONS OF THE MISSISQUOI RIVER AT NORTH TROY.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN.

...NEW HAMPSHIRE...

THE GROUND IS MOSTLY BARE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...WITH
PATCHY TRACE TO 1 INCH SNOW DEPTHS REMAINING ACROSS THE WOODED AREAS
OF THE MONADNOCKS. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM A TRACE UP TO
0.50 INCH.

SNOW DEPTHS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE INCREASE HEADING
ACROSS THE UPPER MERRIMACK REGION...THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...AND NEAR
THE MAINE BORDER. SNOW DEPTHS INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN ABOVE 1000 FT.

SNOW DEPTHS RANGE FROM A TRACE UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER...6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN ABOVE 1000 FT OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND NEARING THE
CANADIAN BORDER. LOCALIZED 1 TO 2 FOOT SNOW DEPTHS WERE FOUND ACROSS
THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM NIL TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER...2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN AND NEAR THE MAINE BORDER...AND LOCALLY UP TO 10 INCHES
ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

THE HIGHEST SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE UPPER
REACHES OF THE PEMIGEWASSET AT WOODSTOCK AND SACO RIVER AT CONWAY
NH.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MERRIMACK AND
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ARE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

...MAINE...

THE GROUND IS MOSTLY BARE ACROSS EAST COASTAL MAINE FROM PORTLAND TO
BANGOR AND BAR HARBOR BUT SOME PATCHY SNOW COVER REMAINS. SNOW
DEPTHS INCREASE TO 2 TO 5 INCHES HEADING TOWARDS MACHIAS. SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS ALONG COASTAL MAINE ARE GENERALLY NIL TO LESS THAN 1
INCH.

SNOW DEPTHS INCREASE TO 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF MAINE
THEN A WIDESPREAD 5 TO 15 INCHES OF SNOW DEPTH ENCOMPASSES INTERIOR
MAINE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE NOTED ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN. BRIDGETON...EUSTIS...MOOSEHEAD AND BRASSUA LAKE
HAD THE DEEPEST SNOW DEPTHS AS OF APRIL 11TH.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ACROSS INTERIOR MAINE RANGE FROM 1 TO 3
INCHES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND 3 TO 7 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN INTERIOR MAINE...BUT LOCALLY UP TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

THE HIGHEST SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE FOUND ACROSS THE SAINT JOHN
RIVER AT NINE MILE BRIDGE...BIG BLACK RIVER AT CLAYTON
LAKE...CARRABASSETT RIVER AT NORTH ANSON...SACO RIVER AT CONWAY AND
SWIFT RIVER AT ROXBURY.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS
INTERIOR MAINE AND NEAR NORMAL ALONG COASTAL MAINE.

...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS AND WATER SUPPLY...

THE LONG TERM DROUGHT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND NEW YORK STATE
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE DUE TO FREQUENT BOUTS OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER
THE PAST FEW MONTHS INTO EARLY APRIL.

THE LATEST PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX FROM 08 APRIL 2017 SHOWED
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE WITH VERY MOIST CONDITIONS AND
EASTERN NEW YORK STATE...WESTERN AND SOUTHERN VERMONT AND EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS WITH UNUSUALLY MOIST CONDITIONS. THE PALMER DROUGHT
SEVERITY INDEX ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NEW ENGLAND WAS NEAR NORMAL.

TAKING A LOOK AT GROUNDWATER MONITORING WELLS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE
AND NEW ENGLAND COURTESY OF THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY
(USGS)...

IN NEW YORK STATE...

GROUNDWATER LEVELS RANGE FROM NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF
THE STATE. AN INCREASE IN GROUNDWATER LEVELS HAS BEEN NOTED DUE TO
ABOVE NORMAL APRIL PRECIPITATION SO FAR AND ALSO SOME RECHARGE DUE
TO SNOWMELT PRIOR TO GREENUP SEASON. SEVERANCE NEW YORK ALONG THE
EASTERN ADIRONDACKS HAS IMPROVED TO BETWEEN 75TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE
FOR GROUNDWATER LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  SUNY ALBANY HAS
IMPROVED TO BETWEEN THE 50TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE FOR GROUNDWATER
LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE EXCEPTION IS ON LONG ISLAND WHERE GROUNDWATER AQUIFER LEVELS ARE
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. UPTON NEW YORK WAS WITHIN
THE LOWEST MEDIAN TO 10TH PERCENTILE GROUNDWATER LEVEL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR AS OF APRIL 11TH IN ITS 17 YEAR PERIOD OF RECORD. WESTBURY
NY WAS WITHIN THE LOWEST MEDIAN LEVEL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS OF
APRIL 11TH IN ITS 13 YEAR PERIOD OF RECORD.

IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

GROUNDWATER LEVELS HAVE IMPROVED TO NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
MOST OF CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS THANKS TO ABOVE
NORMAL APRIL PRECIPITATION SO FAR. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND THE CAPE COD
AQUIFERS...WHERE GROUNDWATER LEVELS CURRENTLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TO
NEAR NORMAL. LAKEVILLE MA WAS IMPROVING BUT STILL WITHIN THE 10TH TO
25TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS OF APRIL 11TH.

IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

IN VERMONT...GROUNDWATER LEVELS HAVE IMPROVED TO NORMAL THANKS TO
ABOVE NORMAL APRIL PRECIPITATION SO FAR AND RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT.

IN NEW HAMPSHIRE...GROUNDWATER LEVELS HAVE IMPROVED TO NEAR NORMAL
TO ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE SOUTH...THANKS TO ABOVE NORMAL APRIL
PRECIPITATION SO FAR AND SOME LIMITED RUNOFF DUE TO SNOWMELT.
GROUNDWATER LEVELS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER
RECHARGE FROM SNOWMELT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO INCREASE THESE LEVELS.

IN MAINE...GROUNDWATER LEVELS HAVE IMPROVED TO NORMAL TO ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG THE MAINE COAST THANKS TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
AND RUNOFF DUE TO SNOWMELT. GROUNDWATER LEVELS WERE ALSO IMPROVING
WITHIN NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL RANGES IN NORTHERN MAINE MOSTLY DUE TO
MELT.

THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS WESTERN MAINE WHERE GROUNDWATER LEVELS WERE
BELOW NORMAL BUT IMPROVING. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF SNOW AVAILABLE
FOR MELT AND RECHARGE ACROSS THIS AREA. EUSTIS WAS TIED WITH ITS
LOWEST MEDIAN GROUNDWATER LEVEL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS OF APRIL
10TH.

THE RESERVOIR LEVELS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AND ARE IN GOOD SHAPE
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

IN NEW YORK STATE...

THE NEW YORK CITY WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM...COMPRISED OF 7 LARGE
RESERVOIRS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE...HAD IMPROVED TO
100.4 PERCENT CAPACITY AS OF 11 APRIL 2017...WHICH WAS 3 PERCENT
ABOVE NORMAL.

IN NEW ENGLAND...

THE SCITUATE RI RESERVOIR LEVEL WAS 285.52 FT AS OF 19Z APRIL 12TH
2017. THIS LEVEL IS AROUND 1.5 FEET ABOVE THE SPILLWAY AND ABOVE
THE CAPACITY LEVEL.

THE QUABBIN RESERVOIR IN CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS WAS AT 82.9 PERCENT
CAPACITY AS OF APRIL 1ST 2017. THE WACHUSETT RESERVOIR LEVEL IN
CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS WAS AT 94.4 PERCENT OF CAPACITY AS OF APRIL
1ST 2017.

IN CONNECTICUT...STATEWIDE RESERVOIR CAPACITY LEVEL DEFICITS WERE
DIMINISHING. THE MARCH 2017 STATEWIDE AVERAGE WAS 93.3 PERCENT WHICH
WAS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE MARCH NORMAL AVERAGE OF 96 PERCENT.

IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND VERMONT...AS OF MARCH 31ST...RESERVOIR LEVELS
WERE AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL. CONNECTICUT LAKE NH WAS 67 PERCENT
FULL...LAKE WINNEPESAUKEE NH 81 PERCENT FULL...SOMERSET VT 73
PERCENT FULL AND HARRIMAN VT 56 PERCENT FULL.

...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...

STREAMFLOW LEVELS ARE GENERALLY NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MOST
OF THE NORTHEAST. STEAMFLOWS REMAIN ICE AFFECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN MAINE. OTHERWISE MOST REMAINING ICE IN NORTHERN BASINS HAS
BROKEN UP DUE TO THE APRIL WARMUP AND RUNOFF FROM PRECIPITATION AND
SNOWMELT.

IN NEW YORK STATE...STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS ARE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE. THE HIGHEST FLOWS COMPARED TO NORMAL
(GREATER THAN 90 PERCENT) ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE UPPER
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...EASTERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
REGION. THE EXCEPTION IS ON LONG ISLAND WHERE SOME OF THE LOCAL
BROOKS AND STREAMS HAVE WELL BELOW NORMAL FLOWS.

IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS ARE NORMAL TO ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS.
THE HIGHEST FLOWS COMPARED TO NORMAL ARE FOUND IN NORTHERN
MASSACHUSETTS.

IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS ARE ABOVE NORMAL TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THIS REGION. A LARGE AREA OF
GREATER THAN 90 PERCENT OF NORMAL FLOWS ENCOMPASSES VERMONT...NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE.

FLOOD WARNINGS WERE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE CONNECTICUT RIVER NEAR
DALTON NEW HAMPSHIRE AND VERMONT AND THE KENNEBEC RIVER AFFECTING
SKOWHEGAN MAINE... NORTH SIDNEY AND AUGUSTA MAINE AS OF APRIL 12TH
2017. MINOR FLOODING WAS OCCURRING. A FLOOD WARNING WAS ALSO IN
EFFECT AT THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT HINCKLEY NY AS OF APRIL 12TH 2017
WHERE MODERATE FLOODING WAS FORECAST.

AN ICE JAM WAS CAUSING SOME MINOR FLOODING IN EASTERN AROOSTOOK
COUNTY MAINE IN THE FORT FAIRFIELD AREA AS OF APRIL 12TH 2017.
OTHER ICE JAMS WERE LOCATED ON THE SAINT JOHN RIVER ALONG SAINT JOHN
PLANTATION...GRAND ISLE AND THE AROOSTOOK (CROUSEVILLE). THE
AROOSTOOK AT MASARDIS AND OXBOW STILL HAD ICE COVER. THE SAINT JOHN
RIVER AT NINEMILE AND UPPER PISCATAQUIS UPSTREAM OF GUILFORD ALSO
HAD SOME ICE. MOST OF THE ICE WILL BE FLUSHING OUT IN THE NEAR TERM.

...IN CONCLUSION...

BASED ON THE INFORMATION AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME...THE SPRING FLOOD
POTENTIAL ACROSS MAINE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHEASTERN
VERMONT IS ABOVE NORMAL.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE ABOVE NORMAL PRIMARILY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION ABOVE NORMAL STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS
EXIST ACROSS THIS AREA AND THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. DESPITE FORECAST COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
THE SUN ANGLE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...ADDING MELT AND RUNOFF
FROM THE CURRENT SNOWPACK.

THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN REGION OF NEW YORK
STATE AND VERMONT AND PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS IN NORTHERN NEW
YORK STATE IS ABOVE NORMAL.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
OF THE ADIRONDACKS NEAR INDIAN LAKE AND SACANDAGA. ELSEWHERE SNOW
COVER HAS DECREASED. HOWEVER ABOVE NORMAL STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS
EXIST ACROSS THIS AREA AND THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. THE SUN ANGLE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...ADDING SOME
LIMITED RUNOFF FROM THE CURRENT SNOWPACK IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...THE EASTERN
FINGER LAKES AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGIONS IS ABOVE NORMAL.

SNOW COVER HAS DIMINISHED AND THE GROUND IS BARE ACROSS MOST OF THIS
REGION. ABOVE NORMAL STREAMFLOWS AND MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
EXIST. IN ADDITION THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS REGION PRIOR TO GREENUP.

THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE CONNECTICUT RIVER...

RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT UPSTREAM IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COMBINED WITH
CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION...BRINGS AN ELEVATED
POTENTIAL TO THIS AREA.

THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW
YORK STATE...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT...

STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS ARE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THIS REGION.
SNOW IS MOSTLY GONE. THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. HOWEVER THE START OF
GREENUP ACROSS THIS AREA WILL BEGIN TO ALLOW FOR ABSORPTION AND
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION OF THE MOISTURE.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS EXISTS ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE IN THE NEAR TERM. MOST OF THE ICE IS CURRENTLY BEING FLUSHED
OUT OF THE REGION DUE TO APRIL WARMTH PRECIPITATION AND MELT. WE
EXPECT ICE REFORMATION TO BE UNLIKELY BEYOND THIS POINT.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS HAS PASSED FOR MOST OF
VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. SOME LIMITED ICE MAY EXIST BUT MOST
RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE NOW OPEN.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS HAS PASSED FOR MOST OF
NEW YORK STATE. SOME LIMITED ICE COVER EXISTS IN THE ADIRONDACKS
REGION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS HAS PASSED FOR
SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS WELL AS
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RESULT IN
FLOODING AT ANY TIME OF YEAR...EVEN IN AREAS THAT HAVE LITTLE OR NO
SNOW ON THE GROUND.

A GRAPHIC DEPICTING THE FLOOD POTENTIAL ON A BASIN BY BASIN BASIS IS
AVAILABLE ON THE NERFC WEB SITE AT


        ***WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/NERFC/OPS/FP1_TODAY.JPG***

ALL IN LOWER CASE.

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE NERFC ON THURSDAY 27 APRIL 2017.

END/STRAUSS
$$



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