Extended Streamflow Guidance
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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER TAUNTON MA
643 PM EST WED JAN 4 2017

...FOR OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE USE ONLY...

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. /1/

THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
IS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS MAINE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN
VERMONT EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN SPINE AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
NEW YORK STATE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND NEW YORK
STATE...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS BELOW TO MUCH BELOW
NORMAL.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE.
ELSEWHERE...RIVER ICE COVERAGE AND THICKNESS IS SPOTTY SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IS BELOW NORMAL TO NON-
EXISTENT.

...CLIMATE GUIDANCE...

THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO BE IN AN ACTIVE STORM
PATTERN...HOWEVER...MOST OF THE STORM SYSTEMS OVER THE PAST MONTH OR
SO HAVE BEEN INSIDE RUNNERS WITH A TRACK PREFERRED THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. WITH THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN...COLD AIR IS EASILY ERADICATED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND SOUTHERN/WESTERN NEW YORK STATE WITH ONLY LIMITED SNOWFALL. THE
AIR HAS REMAINED MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW EVENTS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY IN
MAINE WHERE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT HAS BROUGHT SOME IMPRESSIVE SNOW
AMOUNTS DURING DECEMBER 2016.

THERE REALLY IS NOT MUCH OVERALL CHANGE IN THE FORECAST UPPER FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS ASIDE FROM A COLD BLAST COMING IN
THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. WITH NO UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING DOWNSTREAM IN
THE ATLANTIC...COLD AIR INTRUSIONS WILL TEND TO BE SHORT LIVED AND
REPLACED BY ZONAL OR EVEN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH BRINGS
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND A STORM TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE
LATEST 8 TO 14 DAY TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS FROM THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FOR 11-17 JANUARY 2017 ARE IN STRONG
AGREEMENT FOR A CONTINUATION OF THIS PATTERN AS THEY CALL FOR
TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS ALL OF NEW YORK STATE
AND NEW ENGLAND WITH PRECIPITATION ALSO ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE CLOSEST TO THE STORM
TRACK.

THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE SIGNS IN MEDIUM RANGE CLIMATE TELECONNECTION
PATTERNS THAT TOWARD THE LATTER ONE-HALF OF JANUARY THERE COULD BE A
SHIFT TO COLDER WEATHER BUT THAT IS CERTAINLY NOT ETCHED IN STONE.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS...

SIGNIFICANT SNOW DEPTHS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY MAINE...OTHERWISE SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER
EQUIVALENTS ARE RUNNING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE NERFC SERVICE AREA. ACROSS MAINE...MONTHLY SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR
DECEMBER 2016 INCLUDED 18.9 INCHES IN PORTLAND...18.4 INCHES IN
BANGOR AND 41.2 INCHES IN CARIBOU. ALL THESE TOTALS WERE ABOVE THE
NORMAL WITH CARIBOU`S TOTAL COMING IN 18.3 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.

...NEW YORK STATE...

THERE IS LITTLE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ON THE GROUND SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
MOHAWK RIVER IN NEW YORK STATE. A FEW OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN
THE CATSKILLS...THE HIGH TERRAIN NORTH OF BINGHAMTON AND THE LAKE
SNOW BELT SOUTH OF BUFFALO HAVE AROUND 6 INCHES...OTHERWISE THERE IS
A LOT OF BARE GROUND. NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER...SNOW DEPTHS OF 1
TO 2 FEET ARE COMMON IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
TUG HILL PLATEAU WITH 5 TO 10 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS. NORTH OF THE
ADIRONDACK MOUNTAIN RANGE...SNOW DEPTHS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
ARE RUNNING MOSTLY UNDER 6 INCHES WITH BARE PATCHES IN THE LAKE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. APART FROM THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...TUG HILL
PLATEAU AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE SNOW DEPTHS ARE NOT TOO FAR
FROM NORMAL...SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS THE EMPIRE STATE ARE BELOW NORMAL
FOR EARLY JANUARY.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE RANGE FROM NIL TO 2
INCHES EXCEPT ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND TUG HILL PLATEAU WHERE THEY
ARE HIGHER...RUNNING BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS WITH 3 TO
AS MUCH AS 6 INCHES ABOVE 1500 FEET. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE
MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL EXCEPT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...TUG
HILL PLATEAU AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY REGIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK
STATE WHERE THEY ARE NEAR OR JUST A TAD BELOW NORMAL.

...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW REMAIN ON THE GROUND ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND FAR NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS NEAR A FOOT ABOVE 1500 FEET IN THE BERKSHIRE
MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JANUARY

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE BERKSHIRE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...OTHERWISE...WATER EQUIVALENTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND RANGE FROM NIL TO LESS THAN AN INCH. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS
ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF WINTER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

...VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE...

SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WEST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS IN VERMONT ARE RUNNING BETWEEN A TRACE AND 6 INCHES.
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND VERMONT...SNOW DEPTHS
AVERAGE 8 TO 16 INCHES IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH 1 TO 2+ FEET IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE HIGHEST OF THESE SNOW DEPTHS ARE FOUND IN
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT AND ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS IN NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. GORHAM NEW HAMPSHIRE
REPORTED 22 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND AS OF 4 JANUARY 2017. SNOW
DEPTHS ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND VERMONT ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR
NORTHEAST VERMONT AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND BELOW
NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WEST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
VERMONT...SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS AVERAGE BETWEEN A TRACE AND 2
INCHES. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF VERMONT...SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ARE COMMON WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 5 OR 6 INCHES
LIMITED TO ABOVE 1500 FEET IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. FOR CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM 2 TO 5
INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE 1500 FEET. SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AS WELL AS NORTHEAST VERMONT FOR THE BEGINNING OF JANUARY BUT MOSTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF BOTH STATES.

...MAINE...

EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN MAINE WHERE SNOW DEPTHS ARE
RUNNING BETWEEN A TRACE AND 10 INCHES...SNOW DEPTHS INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY IN THE INTERIOR OF MAINE WHERE 1 TO 3+ FEET OF SNOW NOW
BLANKETS THE STATE. THE HIGHEST SNOW DEPTHS ARE FOUND IN THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. FOR EXAMPLE...KINGFIELD MAINE REPORTED 43
INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND AS OF WEDNESDAY MORNING 4 JANUARY 2017.
SNOW DEPTHS IN MAINE ARE MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL EXCEPT FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THEY ARE NEAR NORMAL.

IN THE VICINITY OF THE COASTLINE IN MAINE...SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS
ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 2 INCHES. THESE WATER EQUIVALENTS INCREASE
RAPIDLY INLAND WITH MOST OF INTERIOR MAINE REPORTING BETWEEN 3 AND 6
INCHES OF WATER IN THE SNOWPACK. EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE FOUND IN
THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MAINE WHERE WATER
EQUIVALENTS AS HIGH AS 8 INCHES ARE THOUGHT TO EXIST. SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS ARE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE STATE OF MAINE
EXCEPT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WHERE THEY ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY
JANUARY.

...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS AND WATER SUPPLY...

THE ONGOING DROUGHT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND NEW YORK STATE HAS TAKEN
ITS TOLL ON GROUNDWATER LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND AND
EASTERN NEW YORK STATE. APART FROM NORTHERN/EASTERN MAINE...THE
ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AND SOUTHWEST NEW
YORK STATE SOUTH OF BUFFALO WHERE GROUNDWATER IS IN FINE
SHAPE...GROUNDWATER LEVELS REMAIN VERY LOW ACROSS A LOT OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK STATE. REAL-TIME GROUNDWATER
MONITORING WELLS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW YORK STATE INCLUDING LONG
ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT CONTINUE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH SEVERAL
RECORD LOW JANUARY VALUES BEING REPORTED IN WELLS WITH PERIODS OF
RECORD UNDER 20 YEARS. UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY ( USGS )
GROUNDWATER MONITORING WELLS IN SOUTHBURY...DURHAM AND MARLBOROUGH
CONNECTICUT WERE ALL REPORTING RECORD OR NEAR RECORD LOW LEVELS FOR
JANUARY.

THE NATURE OF THE DROUGHT IS NOW BECOMING MUCH MORE LONG TERM VERSUS
SHORT TERM AND THAT IS INDICATED BY IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN THE
LATEST PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX ISSUED ON 31 DECEMBER 2016. THE
PALMER INDEX SHOWED MODERATE DROUGHT LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF
CONNECTICUT AND LONG ISLAND WITH SEVERE DROUGHT LEVELS IN NORTHEAST
VERMONT. HOWEVER...DUE TO RECENT BOUTS OF STORMINESS...THE PALMER
INDEX IS NOW SHOWING UNUSUALLY MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK STATE AND COASTAL MAINE. SO REALLY...THE IMPACT OF THE DROUGHT
RIGHT NOW IS MOSTLY SEEN IN DEEP...SLOW RESPONDING GROUNDWATER WELLS
AS WELL AS RESERVOIR LEVELS AND NOT SO MUCH IN NEAR SURFACE SOIL
MOISTURE.

TAKING A LOOK AT RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION...NO ALARMINGLY
LOW LEVELS ARE SEEN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE OR NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. FOR EXAMPLE...INDIAN LAKE IN THE ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE IS ROUGHLY 4.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
JANUARY AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN IS ABOUT 0.75 FEET BELOW NORMAL. IN
MAINE...RESERVOIR LEVELS IN THE ANDROSCOGGIN AND KENNEBEC RIVER
BASINS ARE FINE AS WELL. THE PROBLEMS ARE SEEN ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
YORK STATE AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE NEW YORK CITY
WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM...COMPRISED OF 7 LARGE RESERVOIRS IN SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK STATE...WAS AT JUST 64.8 PERCENT OF CAPACITY AS OF 30
DECEMBER 2016 WHICH WAS 22.7 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL. AND IN
MASSACHUSETTS...QUABBIN RESERVOIR...THE MAIN WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIR
FOR 47 COMMUNITIES IN METRO BOSTON HAD DIPPED BELOW 80 PERCENT
CAPACITY IN DECEMBER 2016 PUTTING IT BELOW NORMAL AS WELL. WITH NOT
A LOT OF SNOW ON THE GROUND IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK STATE AND SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...WATER SUPPLY DOES REMAIN A CONCERN GOING THROUGH THIS
WINTER INTO SPRING UNLESS WE SEE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
FOR SEVERAL MONTHS.

...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...

DUE TO RECENT BOUTS OF RAIN AND SOME MELTING SNOW...RIVER FLOWS HAVE
RECOVERED FROM AUTUMN AND ARE NOW RUNNING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE NERFC SERVICE AREA. THE ONLY LOCATIONS
REPORTING RIVER FLOWS BELOW NORMAL NOW ARE CONFINED TO CAPE COD IN
SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND LONG ISLAND IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK
STATE.

RIVER ICE HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT...NORTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MUCH OF INTERIOR MAINE AS WELL AS IN NORTHERN NEW
YORK STATE BUT IS AT BEST NEAR NORMAL THICKNESS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. RECENT WEB CAM IMAGES FROM DICKEY ON THE SAINT JOHN RIVER IN
EXTREME NORTHERN MAINE AND AUGUSTA ON THE KENNEBEC RIVER IN SOUTHERN
MAINE SHOW NEAR 100 PERCENT COVERAGE OF ICE NOW. ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS WELL AS FROM THE MOHAWK RIVER
SOUTH AND WEST IN NEW YORK STATE...THERE IS LITTLE SIGNIFICANT ICE
IN AREA RIVERS. THERE ARE ALSO NO CURRENTLY KNOWN PROBLEM ICE JAMS
ACROSS THE NERFC SERVICE AREA. ICE THICKNESSES ARE THOUGHT TO BE AS
MUCH AS 6 OR 8 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF MAINE BUT THERE HAVE BEEN
NO RECENT MEASUREMENTS TO CONFIRM THIS.

...IN CONCLUSION...

BASED ON THE INFORMATION AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME...THE WINTER/SPRING
FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS MAINE...NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHEAST VERMONT AND MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE
NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER. IN THESE AREAS...THERE IS A NEAR NORMAL
AMOUNT OF SNOW ON THE GROUND WITH ABOVE NORMAL AMOUNTS OF SNOW IN
PLACE ACROSS MOST OF MAINE. ALSO...RESERVOIR LEVELS ARE RUNNING NEAR
NORMAL AND GROUNDWATER LEVELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING RISES OVER THE PAST
30 DAYS. APART FROM NORTHEAST VERMONT WHERE ANTECEDENT MOISTURE
STATES CONTINUE TO BE SHOWN AS DRY...MOISTURE STATES HAVE ALSO
RETURNED TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. WITH NO ABNORMALLY HEAVY RUNOFF
EVENTS SEEN IN ANY SHORT TO MEDIUM RANGE NUMERICAL WEATHER
PREDICTION GUIDANCE...THE CHANCES FOR FLOODING SEEM VERY CLOSE TO
NORMAL AS WE BEGIN TO WORK OUR WAY INTO THE HEART OF WINTER.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NERFC SERVICE AREA...TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WESTERN VERMONT AND ALL OF
NEW YORK STATE FROM THE MOHAWK RIVER SOUTH AND WEST...THE
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL. IN
THESE AREAS...ALTHOUGH RIVER FLOWS ARE RUNNING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
AND THE FORECAST IS FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE 7
TO 14 DAY TIME PERIOD...THERE IS VERY LITTLE SNOW ON THE GROUND
AVAILABLE FOR MELT RUNOFF. IN ADDITION...RESERVOIR AND GROUNDWATER
LEVELS REMAIN MOSTLY LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW YORK STATE AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHICH WILL FURTHER INHIBIT RUNOFF. WITHOUT AN
ANOMALOUS RUNOFF EVENT...WHICH IS NOT SEEN IN ANY SHORT TO MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE PRODUCT...IT IS UNLIKELY FOR ANY WIDESPREAD FLOOD
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. TO THE CONTRARY...WE CONTINUE TO BE CONCERNED
FOR ENOUGH WATER ACROSS SOUTH COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND LONG ISLAND AS WE HEAD THROUGH WINTER.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS
MOST OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER IN
NEW YORK STATE. IN THESE AREAS...RIVER ICE WAS ABLE TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED IN DECEMBER 2016 AND WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND OR EVEN
THICKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. ICE THICKNESSES ARE NOT ANY GREATER
THAN NORMAL...HOWEVER...AND WITH NO LARGE SCALE RUNOFF EVENTS IN
SIGHT...ONLY A NORMAL ICE JAM FLOOD THREAT IS DEEMED TO EXIST
HEADING FORWARD THROUGH WINTER.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IS BELOW NORMAL TO NON-
EXISTENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND IN NEW YORK
STATE FROM THE MOHAWK RIVER SOUTH AND WEST. IN THESE AREAS...THERE
IS VERY LITTLE RIVER ICE IN PLACE AND THE CURRENT WEATHER
PATTERN...WHICH IS FORECAST TO OSCILLATE FROM COLD TO WARM WITH NO
SUSTAINED ARCTIC OUTBREAKS...IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID ICE GROWTH.
SO...WHILE SOME ICE WILL LIKELY FORM IN RIVERS AND CREEKS OVER THE
NEXT WEEK...IT WILL LIKELY THEN WEAKEN AND DECAY SOME THE FOLLOWING
WEEK AS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
AGAIN.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RESULT IN
FLOODING AT ANY TIME OF YEAR...EVEN IN AREAS THAT HAVE LITTLE OR NO
SNOW ON THE GROUND.

A GRAPHIC DEPICTING THE FLOOD POTENTIAL ON A BASIN BY BASIN BASIS IS
AVAILABLE ON THE NERFC WEB SITE AT


        ***WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/NERFC/OPS/FP1_TODAY.JPG***

ALL IN LOWER CASE.

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE NERFC ON THURSDAY 19 JANUARY 2017.

END/HORWOOD
$$



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