Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Ohio RFC

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FGUS61 KTIR 011959
ESGTIR
WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER WILMINGTON OH
318 PM EDT Wednesday July 1 2015

THE FOLLOWING IS THE 30-DAY WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF JULY

.WATER RESOURCES STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK...
The outlook for July calls for above normal streamflows for most of the
Ohio Valley. Streamflows across northwestern Ohio...northern and central
Indiana will be much above normal for the start of the month and taper to
near normal as the main precipitation focus looks to be the southern
basin during July.  Streamflows for western Pennsylvania and West Virginia
will be near normal.

.....................................................................

.HYDROLOGIC FLOOD AND DROUGHT POTENTIAL...
Flood potential will be elevated for July across the Ohio Valley with the
recent heavy rainfall across most areas north of the Ohio River...
especially northwest Ohio and northern Indiana. . Drought conditions
are not expected.
.....................................................................

.PAST 30 DAY HYDROLOGICAL AND METEOROLOGICAL REVIEW...
RAINFALL DEPARTURES...
North of the Ohio River 4 to 15 inches of rain fell.  The maximum amounts of
the last 30 days fell across north central Indiana into northwest Ohio. 8 to
15 inches (300 to 600 percent of normal) fell across those areas.  For the
remainder of Indiana and Ohio as well as western Pennsylvania and southwest
New York...6 to 8 inches fell (150 to 300 of normal). South of the mainstem
2 to 5 inches fell (75 to 110 percent of normal).

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/ohrfc/drought.html

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...
Soil moisture conditions across Indiana into western Ohio are in the 80th to
99th percentile with the max across the Upper Wabash into the Maumee drainages.
Another maximum can be found across the Great Lakes drainages where soil
moisture conditions are in the 90th to 95th percentile.  Elsewhere...soil
moisture conditions are near normal.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/soilmst/w.shtml

STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...
Streamflows were much above normal north of the Ohio River.  South
of the Ohio River streamflows were normal to above normal with pockets of
much above normal.

http://watermonitor.gov

.....................................................................

.ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTION AND OSCILLATION FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT MONTH...

TELECONNECTION/OSCILLATION PATTERN
ARCTIC OSCILLATION
STRENGTH = RAINFALL DEPARTURE
Neutral = Near Normal

NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
STRENGTH = RAINFALL DEPARTURE
Neutral to negative = Normal to slightly wetter

PACIFIC/NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION
STRENGTH = RAINFALL DEPARTURE
Positive = Drier

ENSO - EL NINO/LA NINA OSCILLATION
STRENGTH = RAINFALL DEPARTURE
Weak to moderate El Nino = Normal to wetter


http://www.cpc.noaa.gov

.....................................................................

.TECHNICAL DISCUSSION...
Atmospheric and oceanic teleconnections continue to be all over the place
and usually influence the weather less in the warm season than cool season.
Soil moisture is a significant player in summer rain across the region.

Extended models show conditions remaining active across the Ohio Valley
for the month of July...with the focus being south of the Ohio River.

.......................................................................

VISIT OUR WATER RESOURCES WEBSITE AT http://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/WRO.shtml

IN ADDITION TO A 30-DAY STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK...YOU CAN ALSO OBTAIN A
60- AND 90-DAY OUTLOOK AT THE WEBSITE

$$



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