Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Ohio RFC

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FGUS61 KTIR 042227
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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER WILMINGTON OH
530 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS ABOVE NORMAL SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AND NEAR
NORMAL NORTH OF THE MAINSTEM.

AN ABOVE NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL MEANS WIDESPREAD FLOODING COULD
OCCUR WITH WATER LEVELS HAVING SIGNIFICANT IMAPCTS.

A NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL MEANS OCCASIONAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR WITH
WATER LEVELS HAVING MINOR IMPACTS.

FOR THE LONG-RANGE RIVER OUTLOOKS AND THE PROBABLITY OF EXCEEDING
FLOODSTAGE OR THE CHANCES OF FLOODING RELATIVE TO NORMAL AT
SPECIFIC FORECAST POINTS DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS...REFER TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OHRFC AND CLICK ON THE 90-DAY RIVER OUTLOOK ON THE
LEFT HAND SIDE OF THE PAGE. CLICK ON FLOOD CHC VS NORMAL TO VIEW
THE RISK OF FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL.

FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED BI-WEEKLY BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DURING WINTER AND EARLY SPRING TO SUMMARIZE BASIN
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINTER/SPRING FLOODING. THE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON CURRENT AND
FORECAST CONDITIONS DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

IN ADDITION...A 90-DAY WATER RESOURCE OUTLOOK IS ISSUED MONTHLY.

FACTORS CONSIDERED IN ASSESSING FLOOD POTENTIAL ARE (1) ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS (2) PAST PRECIPITATION (3) RECENT STREAMFLOWS AND
RESERVOIR LEVELS (4) SOIL MOISTURE (5) WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOW
PACK (6) ICE CONDITIONS ON THE RIVERS AND (7) FUTURE PRECIPITATION.

METEOROLOGICALLY...THE PREVAILING STORM TRACK DURING WINTER HAS
RESEMBLED AN EL NINO SIGNATURE ACROSS THE U.S....PREDICTED SINCE THE
SUMMER OF 2014...WITH STORM SYSTEMS HITTING THE WEST COAST...THEN
MOVING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH BEFORE CURVING UP THE EAST COAST OR OUT
INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC BASIN. THE LACK OF PHASING OF THE
POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMS HAS RESULTED IN MAINLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION EVENTS IN THE OHIO VALLEY/LAKE ERIE DRAINAGE.

FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL WINTER 2015...TEMPERATURES IN THE OHIO
VALLEY/LAKE ERIE DRAINAGE WERE BELOW NORMAL...AND PRECIPITATION
AVERAGED SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY HAVING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

SOILS ARE NORMALLY MOIST NORTH OF THE MAINSTEM...AND ABNORMALLY WET
SOUTH OF THE MAINSTEM.

STREAMFLOWS ARE CURRENTLY ABOVE NORMAL SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WITH
WIDESPREAD FLOODING OCCURRING OR FORECAST ACROSS THE WATERSHEDS IN
KENTUCKY EASTWARD INTO WEST VIRGINIA/SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. NEAR
NORMAL STREAMFLOWS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE MAINSTEM.

A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR EXISTS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. A VERY DENSE SNOW PACK IS YIELDING SNOW TO
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT RATIOS OF 10 TO 1 OR EVEN AS HIGH AS 5 TO 1
INCHES. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE ~1/2 TO 1 INCH ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER.

SOME ICE ACCUMULATION HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN RIVERS OF THE OHIO
RIVER BASIN.

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK/SUMMARY...

THE WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS TO BE ON THE VERGE OF BREAKING THE EL
NINO SIGNATURE PERSISTING THIS PAST WINTER. FOR THE OHIO VALLEY AND
LAKE ERIE DRAINAGE...MILDER TEMPERATURES ALSO WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
A MORE ACTIVE STORM TRACK THIS SPRING WITH OCCASSIONAL PHASING OF
THE SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR JET STREAMS.

HYDROLOGICALLY...THE RESULTING STREAMFLOWS WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL
SOUTH AND NEAR NORMAL NORTH OF THE MAINSTEM.

$$
WHEELER



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