Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS

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TRIBUTARIES TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
IN NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
628 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 12/1/2014 - 3/1/2015

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Fox River
WYLM7            15.0   18.0   20.0    12   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:North Fabius River
EWNM7            11.0   14.0   18.0    39   25   18   12   <5   <5
:Middle Fabius River
EWMM7            12.0   17.0   19.5    48   28   15    7   <5   <5
:South Fabius River
TAYM7             9.5   14.0   19.0    51   34    9    9   <5   <5
:North River
PALM7            13.0   16.0   22.0    37   28   21   17   <5   <5
:Middle Fork Salt River
PMZM7            17.0   22.0   26.0    28   23   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Salt River
NLDM7            19.0   25.0   27.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cuivre River
TRYM7            21.0   25.0   29.0    57   32   12    7   <5   <5
OMNM7            24.0   27.0   30.0     7   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1124 Z DH12 /DC1411241228/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 12/1/2014 - 3/1/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Fox River
WYLM7       5.1/    6.2/    7.4/   10.2/   11.9/   15.6/   17.5
:North Fabius River
EWNM7       6.2/    7.1/    8.2/   10.1/   12.3/   16.8/   18.2
:Middle Fabius River
EWMM7       6.3/    7.3/    9.3/   12.0/   13.5/   18.0/   19.3
:South Fabius River
TAYM7       5.4/    6.0/    7.6/    9.6/   11.8/   15.1/   17.0
:North River
PALM7       7.2/    7.5/    9.4/   11.8/   15.7/   19.7/   20.8
:Middle Fork Salt River
PMZM7       8.3/   10.3/   12.4/   14.9/   17.4/   18.9/   20.6
:Salt River
NLDM7       5.0/    5.7/    7.4/    9.6/   11.0/   13.7/   15.9
:Cuivre River
TRYM7      11.0/   13.2/   17.0/   22.5/   24.0/   25.6/   27.1
OMNM7      12.7/   13.6/   15.5/   18.0/   20.4/   23.5/   24.7
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1124 Z DH12 /DC1411241228/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 12/1/2014 - 3/1/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Fox River
WYLM7       1.8/    1.6/    1.4/    1.2/    1.2/    1.2/    1.1
:North Fabius River
EWNM7       3.3/    3.2/    3.0/    2.9/    2.8/    2.7/    2.7
:Middle Fabius River
EWMM7       3.2/    3.2/    3.0/    2.9/    2.8/    2.8/    2.7
:South Fabius River
TAYM7       2.2/    2.0/    1.7/    1.6/    1.5/    1.5/    1.4
:North River
PALM7       4.3/    4.2/    4.1/    4.1/    4.0/    4.0/    3.9
:Middle Fork Salt River
PMZM7       4.4/    4.4/    4.4/    4.3/    4.3/    4.3/    4.3
:Salt River
NLDM7       5.3/    5.2/    4.6/    4.2/    3.5/    2.6/    2.3
:Cuivre River
TRYM7       6.0/    5.8/    5.6/    5.3/    5.1/    5.0/    4.9
OMNM7      10.3/    9.8/    9.5/    9.5/    9.4/    9.4/    9.3
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$




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