Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Arkansas-Red Basin RFC

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Flood Potential Outlook

National Weather Service, ABRFC, Tulsa, Oklahoma

1517 CST, Wednesday, February 18, 2015



                          COLORADO

                -- ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN--



The Rocky Mountains



The potential for flooding will be near normal this spring. Flooding

at most forecast points in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado is driven

by rapid snowpack runoff or isolated, high-intensity rainfall.



As measured at high altitude SNOTEL monitoring stations, the

mountains of the Arkansas River basin have received approximately

93 percent of the median precipitation and have accumulated 85

percent of the median snowpack this water year. A more detailed table

is included below. This water-year`s precipitation is about 107

percent of last year`s. There is a sharp divide within the basin

however. SNOTEL locations near the mainstem of the Arkansas River

indicate a snowpack near or in excess of the 30-year median (Brumley,

Fremont Pass, and Porphyry Creek).  Stations in the Purgatoire River,

Cucharas River and Huerfano River basins (Apishapa, Whiskey Creek and

South Colony) are indicating a snowpack well below the median. At the

end of January, mountain reservoirs above Pueblo were, on average,

at 81 percent of capacity.  This represents 111 percent of average

storage and 136 percent of last year`s storage. Reservoirs below

Pueblo are at 31 percent of capacity, 41 percent of last year`s

storage, and 132 percent of the long-term average.





    S N O W  -  P R E C I P I T A T I O N    U P D A T E



        Based on Mountain Data from NRCS SNOTEL Sites

              As of TUESDAY: February 17, 2015

-------------------------------------------------------------------

BASIN             ELEV. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT   TOTAL PRECIPITATION

Data Site Name   (Ft)                      %                      %

                       Current  Median  Med.  Current  Median  Med

-------------------------------------------------------------------



ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN



APISHAPA         10000     0.9   5.4      17    7.1     8.4      85

BRUMLEY          10600     9.1   6.9     132    8.9     9.2      97

FREMONT PASS     11400    12.8  10.5     122   12.7    10.8     118

PORPHYRY CREEK   10760    10.6  10.9      97   10.0    10.6      94

SOUTH COLONY     10800     8.4  13.5      62   11.5    14.7      78

WHISKEY CK       10220     5.8   7.3      79    9.5    11.0      86

                                        -----                  -----

         Basin wide percent of average    85                     93



Units = inches for the Current and Average Snow Water Equivalent

and Total Precipitation values



The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlooks for winter and early

spring (FEB-MAR-APR)indicate increased chances (33%-40%) of below

normal temperatures in southeastern Colorado. Those chances increase

slightly (40%-50%) towards the southeastern corner of the state. CPC

outlooks also call for significantly increased chances (40%-50%) of

above-normal precipitation during the same period.



Current soil moisture estimates from the CPC represent near-normal

conditions in the mountain headwaters of the Arkansas River. Soil

moisture estimates for the end of January were between the 30th and

70th percentiles throughout southeastern Colorado.



The ESP model does not indicate a greater than 50 percent chance of

flooding at any forecast point.  The table below contains a summary

of the most probable maximum stages from the model output.



            Colorado Ensemble Streamflow Prediction

              As of Tuesday: February 17, 2015

               Feb 17 - May 18 50% Exceedence

    Weekly

     Flood         50% exceedence    50% exceedence

  Station  Stage(ft)     Maximum Stage (ft)     Maximum Stage (ft)

------------------------------------------------------------------

 Leadville     9.0                6.7                  6.4

 Salida        8.0                4.4                  4.2

 Wellsville    9.0                5.8                  5.6

 Parkdale      9.0                4.9                  4.7

 Canon City   10.0                7.8                  7.6

 Portland      9.0                4.5                  4.2

 Pueblo        8.0                6.5                  6.1



The U.S. Drought Monitor indicates that severe drought conditions

currently dominate the southeastern corner of Colorado. However, the

drought conditions are mostly in the plains. The mountain headwaters

of the Arkansas River system are relatively free of drought at this

time.  That is except for the mountains in extreme southern Colorado

along the New Mexico border. The mountains there are experiencing

abnormally dry conditions (D-0) that blend into Moderate Drought

conditions (D-1). The US Seasonal Drought Outlook is noncommittal on

the development of drought conditions in southeastern Colorado. The

headwaters of the Arkansas system are expected to remain drought free.

The plains of southeastern Colorado are harder to pin down and the

outlook puts the boundary between drought intensification and drought

relief near the Colorado-Kansas border.



The Southeastern Plains



The potential for flood conditions will be below normal this spring.

Normal conditions for southeastern Colorado reflect a low probability

of flooding.



Current Climate Prediction Center (CPC) soil moisture estimates for

the area indicate normal conditions in southeastern Colorado.  Soil

moisture values in the 30th to the 70th percentile dominate that part

of the state.



The Arkansas River is generally flowing at extremely low levels below

Pueblo Reservoir. Fountain Creek is flowing at below normal to

near-normal levels.



The ESP model does not indicate any probabilities of flooding greater

than 50 percent. The table below shows the probability of flooding

during the next 120 days at four forecast points.



             Colorado Ensemble Streamflow Prediction

               As of Tuesday: February 17, 2015



Fcst Point    % Probability    % Probability      % Probability

Station    Minor Flooding  Moderate FloodingMajor Flooding

ID

ARCC2          Not Expected     Not Expected      Not Expected

LXHC2             50                 28                  7

LAPC2             10                  3                  2

LMAC2          Not Expected     Not Expected     Not Expected



According to the U.S. Drought Monitor the plains of southeastern

Colorado are experiencing extreme to exceptional drought conditions.

The US Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for persistent or worsening

drought conditions through April.



   *******************************************************

   *                                                     *

   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *

   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *

   *                                                     *

   *    www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php     *

   *                                                     *

   *******************************************************





SOUTHERN KANSAS



The potential for flood conditions in southern Kansas will be

near-normal this spring. Most flooding in Kansas is directly related

to specific precipitation events. Kansas has shown some recovery from

the long-term drought that affected the southern plains for most of

2010 through 2014. However, most hydrologically relevant conditions

in southern Kansas continue to reflect the effects of that drought.



Precipitation during the last 90 days has been well-below average

in southeastern Kansas but has been considerably above average in the

southwest. The driest conditions (relative to the average) are in

southeastern Kansas with a large area that has received less than

50 percent of average rainfall.  Rainfall relative to the average

improves as you move west until there is a large area in southwestern

Kansas that has received 150-200 percent of average rainfall.

Unfortunately, large areas of west-central Kansas, along the Arkansas

River did not receive those recent rains and remain well below

average for the last 90 days.



According to the Climate Prediction Center`s (CPC) estimates, soil

moisture across southern Kansas is consistently between the 30th

and 70th percentiles. This represents near-normal conditions.  Only

in extreme south central Kansas does the CPC data indicate below-

normal conditions with values between the 20th and 30th percentiles.



Streamflows in southern Kansas are well-below normal throughout

southwest Kansas. In southeast Kansas, stream discharges are

approaching normal conditions but are consistently to the low side

of the long-term median.



Reservoir storage in southern Kansas is close to approximating

design conditions. However, low storage volumes persist in the

Neosho, Cottonwood, and Verdigris River systems. U.S. Corps of

Engineers data indicate that Corps  reservoirs in southern Kansas

currently have an average of 107 percent of their flood-control

storage available at this time.



Through the late winter and early spring months (FEB-MAR-APR), the

CPC`s outlooks for southern Kansas call for increased chances

(33%-40%) of below-normal temperatures across much of southern

Kansas.  The chances of below-normal temperatures increase (40%-50%)

towards the southwest corner of the state. The precipitation outlook

for the same period splits southern Kansas almost evenly from east to

west.  The western half of the state has increased chances (33%-40%)

of below-normal precipitation while the eastern half has equal

chances (33%) of above-normal, below-normal, and near-normal

precipitation.



The U.S. Drought Monitor currently indicates abnormally dry to

extreme drought conditions dominating southern Kansas. Southeast

Kansas is almost entirely classified as abnormally dry (D-0).

Conditions worsen to the west.  Moderate (D-1) to severe (D-2)

drought dominates almost all of southwest Kansas and worsens to

extreme drought towards the border with the Oklahoma Panhandle.

The CPC`s US Seasonal Drought Outlook for the next three months calls

for drought conditions the southwest to persist or intensify.



The table below indicates the probability of flooding for selected

western Kansas forecast points where the model indicates a greater

than five percent chance of flooding. Current model output indicates

that chances of minor flooding in western Kansas are low (< 12%).

However, these low probabilities do not reflect extreme conditions and

indicate a near-normal chance of flooding.



                   Select Points in Western Kansas

               Kansas Ensemble Streamflow Prediction

                As of Tuesday: February 17, 2015



Fcst. Point% Probability   % Probability      % Probability

StationMinor Flooding  Moderate Flooding   Major Flooding

ID

ENWK1                12                  3            Not Expected





The table below presents some south-central and southeast Kansas

forecast points where the ESP model indicated a greater than 10%

chance of minor flooding.  These are not extreme conditions and in

the long term do not reflect an above-normal potential for flooding.



        Select Points in South-central and Southeast Kansas

               Kansas Ensemble Streamflow Prediction

                As of Tuesday: February 17, 2015



Fcst. Point% Probability   % Probability      % Probability

StationMinor Flooding  Moderate Flooding   Major Flooding

ID

ALMK1               16                 10             Not Expected

ARCK1               19                  3             Not Expected

ARKK1               10                  3             Not Expected

ATOK1               21                  4             Not Expected

CBNK1               47            Not Expected        Not Expected

CFVK1               17                  6             Not Expected

CNUK1               33                 18             Not Expected

CTWK1               20                 11             Not Expected

EREK1               33                 29                 19

FLRK1               22                  3             Not Expected

FRNK1               17                  6             Not Expected

HTDK1               10                  6             Not Expected

IDPK1               26            Not Expected        Not Expected

IOLK1               18                  1             Not Expected

MDKK1               20                  6             Not Expected

MULK1               12                  3             Not Expected

OSWK1               50                 39                  7

OXFK1               17                  3                  2

PPFK1               47                 41             Not Expected

PLYK1               20                 11             Not Expected

SEDK1               11                  7                  4

WFDK1               16                 12                  4

EMPK1               21                 14             Not Expected

EPRK1               15                 14             Not Expected

LRYK1               11                 11             Not Expected

NEOK1               22                 21             Not Expected



   *******************************************************

   *                                                     *

   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *

   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *

   *                                                     *

   *    www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php     *

   *                                                     *

   *******************************************************



SOUTHWEST MISSOURI



The potential for flood conditions in southwest Missouri will be

near normal this spring. Most flooding in this area is related to

specific rainfall events.  Therefore, current conditions do not

necessarily indicate an increased or decreased risk of spring

flooding.



Rainfall during the last 90 days has been from 50 to 75 percent of

average.  Soil moisture in southwestern Missouri is currently near

normal (30-70th percentile). Stream flow in that part of the state

is below-normal.



Through the late winter and early spring months (FEB-MAR-APR), the

Climate Prediction Center`s (CPC) outlooks for southwestern

Missouri mostly call for equal chances (33%) of above-normal,

below-normal, or near-normal temperatures.  The outlooks also

indicate equal chances of above-normal, normal, and below-normal

precipitation for the same period.



The U.S. Drought Monitor indicates southwestern Missouri is

experiencing abnormally dry conditions but is not in drought.

The CPC`s US Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for the area to remain

free of drought related conditions for the next three months.



The table below presents some southwestern Missouri forecast points

where the ESP model indicated a greater than 10% chance of minor

flooding.  These are not extreme conditions and do not reflect an

above-normal potential for flooding.



                 Select Points in Southwest Missouri

                    Ensemble Streamflow Prediction

                   As of Tuesday: February 17, 2015



Fcst. Point% Probability   % Probability      % Probability

StationMinor Flooding  Moderate Flooding   Major Flooding

ID

CHTM7               23                 11             Not Expected

TIFM7               29                  8                    4

WCOM7               26            Not Expected        Not Expected

BXTK1               23                 12                    3



   *******************************************************

   *                                                     *

   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *

   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *

   *                                                     *

   *    www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php     *

   *                                                     *

   *******************************************************



$$




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