Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS

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FGUS65 KSTR 031731
ESGWY
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UTAH


                     SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL
          FOR THE GREEN AND BEAR RIVER BASINS IN WYOMING

                       FEBRUARY 3, 2016


The 2016 spring runoff flood potential due to snowmelt is
is not high this time for the Upper Green and Bear River
basins. However, it should be emphasized that it is very
early in the snow accumulation season and conditions could
change before the runoff begins.

January precipitation was near to above average in all basins across
southwest Wyoming. Seasonal precipitation is slightly below average
at 95 percent of average in both the Upper Green and Bear River basins.
January 1st snow water equivalent is also near average in the Upper Green
and Bear River basins.

The current volume forecasts for the April through July runoff period
are below average or much below average in the Upper Green and the Bear River
basins. The below average forecasts are result of below average fall soil
moisture conditions and to a lesser extent below average seasonal precipitation.

Although spring temperatures affect the pattern of snowmelt runoff and
consequently the magnitude of peak flows, peak flows also roughly correspond
to volumetric flows. It is also important to keep in mind that
an extended period of much above normal temperatures or heavy
rainfall during the melt period can cause or exacerbate flooding problems in any year,
regardless of snowpack conditions.

The spring runoff flood potential will be re-evaluated in early March and an updated
product will be issued at that time.

CBRFC/A.Nielson

$$








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