Extended Streamflow Prediction
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000
FGUS65 KSTR 022042
ESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH

MARCH 2, 2017

ARIZONA WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK - AS OF MARCH 1 2017:


Precipitation:

Seasonal October-February precipitation was 145 percent of average in
the Salt-Verde River Basin, 120 percent of average for the Gila Basin and
145 percent for the Little Colorado Basin. February precipitation was
110 percent of average in the Salt-Verde River Basin, 95 percent in the
Gila River Basin, and 110 percent of average in the Little Colorado Basin.

Streamflow:

February Streamflow was around 160 percent of median in the Salt-Verde,
220 percent in the Gila, and 385 percent in the Little Colorado.

March 1st Snow:

Basin snowpack conditions were near 105 percent of median in the
Salt-Verde River Basin, 70 percent of median in the upper Gila,
and 120 percent of median in the Little Colorado River Basin.

Soil Moisture:

Modeled soil moisture states are above average at this time due to above
average seasonal precipitation. However, the March through May runoff
volumes are primarily influenced by the frequency and magnitude of winter
rain events.

Climate Conditions:

Forecast neutral climate conditions suggest possible below average
precipitation through the spring. The neutral climate condition was not
accounted for in the generation of March streamflow volume forecasts.


Forecast Summary:

March-May streamflow volume forecasts are for the most part above median
across Arizona. The lowest forecast was in the Little Colorado River Basin
for Lyman Lake near St. John. The wet February was not consistent with
La Nina climate conditions that were forecast. Current Cliamte forecasts
suggest below average precipitation into the spring.


SPECIFIC SITE FORECASTS ARE AS FOLLOWS:

Afos message output for EGDD: /nvm1/users/tracy.cox/wsup/wy17/lc/lcmar.drv
Developed:                    Mar 1 2017

LOWER Colorado
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
Little Colorado River
  Lyman Lk, abv, St. John  Mar-Jun    4.1    68    7.9    5.2    3.4    2.8    6.0
Zuni River
  Black Rock Res, abv      Mar-May   0.51   222    3.9    0.9   0.30   0.17   0.23
Chevelon Ck
  Winslow, nr, Wildcat Cy  Mar-May   18.9   136     42     30   14.1    8.3   13.9
Gila River
  Gila, nr                 Mar-May     55   162     84     67     48     40     34
  Virden, nr, Blue Ck, bl  Mar-May     65   151    101     78     56     47     43
San Francisco River
  Glenwood, nr             Mar-May   10.6    70     24     16    9.3    8.2   15.2
  Clifton                  Mar-May     33    87     66     46     27     21     38
Gila River
  Solomon, nr, Head Of Sa  Mar-May    106   119    180    129     89     75     89
  San Carlos Res, Coolidg  Mar-May     78   147    151     99     61     47     53
Salt River
  Roosevelt, nr            Mar-May    230    96    325    270    180    121    240
Tonto Ck
  Roosevelt, nr, Gun Ck,   Mar-May     52   236    115     79     44     36     22
Verde River
  Tangle Ck, blo, Horsesh  Mar-May    194   181    330    245    160    109    107

50% Most probable volume in 1000 acre-feet.
%AVG  Most probable volume in percent of the 1981-2010 average.
10% Volume that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.
30% Volume that has a 30 percent chance of being exceeded.
90% Volume that has a 90 percent chance of being exceeded.
70% Volume that has a 70 percent chance of being exceeded.
AVG   Average volume for the 1981-2010 period.

All forecast volumes reflect natural flow.  Actual observed flow may
be affected by upstream water management.

CBRFC

****************************************************************************

PRECIPITATION SUMMARY:

                      FEBRUARY`17      SEASONAL
BASIN                 % Average       % Average

  Upper Gila             95              120
  Salt-Verde            110              145
  Little Colorado       110              145

***************************************************************************

SNOWPACK SUMMARY:

                     MARCH 1 2017
BASIN                  % Average

  Upper Gila              70
  San Francisco           30
  Salt-Verde             105
  Little Colorado        120


***************************************************************************

OBSERVED STREAM FLOW SUMMARY:

                      FEBRUARY`17
BASIN                  % Median

  Gila                   220
  Salt-Verde             160
  Little Colorado        385

**************************************************************************

For additional forecast information refer to the Water Supply section of
the CBRFC web page at: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/wsup/pub2/map/html/cpub.php

CBRFC

NNNN

$$



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