Extended Streamflow Prediction
Issued by NWS

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075
FGUS65 KSTR 022030
ESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH

February 2, 2017

ARIZONA WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK - As of February 1 2017:


Precipitation:

Seasonal October-January precipitation ranged from 150 percent of average
in the Salt-Verde, 125 percent of average in the upper Gila Basin, and
155 percent of average in the Little Colorado basin.

Much above average precipitation occurred throughout Arizona in January.
In general, January precipitation amounts received were 200 percent of average.

Streamflow:

January streamflow was near 185 percent of median on the Salt and Verde Rivers.
Streamflow was about 260 percent of median for January in the Gila Basin. In the
Little Colorado Basin, streamflow was near 200 percent of median.

Snow:

February 1st snowpack was 140 percent of average in the Salt-Verde Basin, near
145 percent of average in the headwaters of the Little Colorado Basin. Snowpack
conditions were near 90 percent of average in the upper Gila drainage.

Soil Moisture:

Modeled soil moisture states vary with most areas above average at this time
due to above average seasonal precipitation. However, the February through May
runoff volumes are primarily influenced by the frequency and magnitude of winter
rain events.

Climate Condtions:

Forecast weak La Nina to Neutral climate conditions suggest possible below
average precipitation through the spring. The weak La Nina climate condition
was not accounted for in the generation of February streamflow volume forecasts.

Forecast Summary:

February-May streamflow volume forecasts are for the most part above median
across Arizona. The lowest forecast is in the Little Colorado River Basin for
Lyman Lake near St. John. The wet January was not consistent with La Nina climate
conditions that were forecast. Current Cliamte forecasts suggest near to below
average precipitation into the spring.


Afos message output for EGDD: /home/tracy.cox/wsup/wy17/lc/lcfeb.drv
Developed:                    Feb 1 2017

LOWER Colorado
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
Little Colorado River
  Lyman Lk, abv, St. John  Feb-Jun    3.7    56    6.7    5.0    3.0    2.1    6.6
Zuni River
  Black Rock Res, abv      Feb-May   0.71   187    6.5    2.6   0.35   0.10   0.38
Chevelon Ck
  Winslow, nr, Wildcat Cy  Feb-May     25   180     63     48   18.0    8.7   13.9
Gila River
  Gila, nr                 Feb-May     65   130    135     84     44     34     50
  Virden, nr, Blue Ck, bl  Feb-May     85   135    185    114     60     48     63
San Francisco River
  Glenwood, nr             Feb-May   17.0    93     38     27   12.9   10.9   18.2
  Clifton                  Feb-May     57   112    127     88     43     30     51
Gila River
  Solomon, nr, Head Of Sa  Feb-May    158   128    340    220    120     94    123
  San Carlos Res, Coolidg  Feb-May    127   157    325    196     94     66     81
Salt River
  Roosevelt, nr            Feb-May    335   118    610    465    215    150    285
Tonto Ck
  Roosevelt, nr, Gun Ck,   Feb-May     65   186    168    104     38     20     35
Verde River
  Tangle Ck, blo, Horsesh  Feb-May    215   158    530    380    150     97    136

50% Most probable volume in 1000 acre-feet.
%AVG  Most probable volume in percent of the 1981-2010 average.
10% Volume that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.
30% Volume that has a 30 percent chance of being exceeded.
90% Volume that has a 90 percent chance of being exceeded.
70% Volume that has a 70 percent chance of being exceeded.
AVG   Average volume for the 1981-2010 period.

All forecast volumes reflect natural flow.  Actual observed flow may
be affected by upstream water management.

****************************************************************************

PRECIPITATION SUMMARY:

                      January `17      SEASONAL
BASIN                 % Average       % Average

  Upper Gila            195              125
  Salt-Verde            200              150
  Little Colorado       200              155

***************************************************************************

SNOWPACK SUMMARY:

                     February 1 2017
BASIN                  % Median

  Upper Gila               90
  San Francisco            80
  Salt-Verde              140
  Little Colorado         145

***************************************************************************

OBSERVED STREAM FLOW SUMMARY:

                      January `17
BASIN                  % Median

  Gila                   260
  Salt-Verde             185
  Little Colorado        200

**************************************************************************

For additional forecast information and graphical presentation material
refer to the Water Supply section of the CBRFC web page at:
www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/wsup/pub2/map/html/cpub.php

CBRFC

NNNN

$$



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