Extended Streamflow Prediction
Issued by NWS

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FGUS65 KSTR 041723
ESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH

February 3, 2016

ARIZONA WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK - As of February 1 2016:


Precipitation:

Seasonal October-January precipitation ranged from 120 percent of average
in the Salt-Verde, 110 percent of average in the upper Gila Basin, and
130 percent of average in the Little Colorado basin.

Near to slightly below average precipitation occurred throughout Arizona in January.
In general, January precipitation amounts received were 70 to 105 percent
of average.

Streamflow:

January streamflow was near 55 percent of median on the Salt and Verde Rivers.
Streamflow was 80 percent of median for January in the Gila Basin. In the Little
Colorado Basin, streamflow was near 135 percent of median.

Snow:

February 1st snowpack was 140 percent of median in the Verde Basin,
near 70 percent of median in the upper Salt River Basin, and near 110 percent
of median in the southern headwaters of the Little Colorado Basin. Snowpack
conditions were near 85 percent of median in the upper Gila drainage.

Soil Moisture:

Modeled soil moisture states were much below average at the beginning
of the water year. However, Conditions have improved since December.
January through May runoff volumes are primarily influenced by
the frequency and magnitude of winter rain events.


Climate Condtions:

Strong El Nino climate conditions suggest chances for above average
precipitation in Arizona.

Forecast Summary:

February-May streamflow volume forecasts between 105 and 132 percent of median in
the Little Colorado Basin, 114 to 121 percent of median in the Salt-Verde
Basins. In the Gila Basin, February-May volumes were between 114 to 159 percent of
median.

Afos message output for EGDD: /nvm1/users/tjc/wsup/wy16/lc/lcfeb.drv
Developed:                    Feb 1 2016

LOWER Colorado
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
Little Colorado River
  Lyman Lk, abv, St. John  Feb-Jun    6.9   105   14.9   12.7    5.8    4.5    6.6
Zuni River
  Black Rock Res, abv      Feb-May   0.50   132    4.1    2.3   0.19   0.02   0.38
Chevelon Ck
  Winslow, nr, Wildcat Cy  Feb-May   14.7   106     67     49    8.6    4.3   13.9
Gila River
  Gila, nr                 Feb-May     78   156    165    118     55     37     50
  Virden, nr, Blue Ck, bl  Feb-May    100   159    220    152     70     46     63
San Francisco River
  Glenwood, nr             Feb-May     22   121     51     36   14.4   10.7   18.2
  Clifton                  Feb-May     58   114    155    103     39     24     51
Gila River
  Solomon, nr, Head Of Sa  Feb-May    170   138    390    255    114     69    123
  San Carlos Res, Coolidg  Feb-May    115   142    410    225     81     33     81
Salt River
  Roosevelt, nr            Feb-May    330   116    730    510    191    110    285
Tonto Ck
  Roosevelt, nr, Gun Ck,   Feb-May     40   114    220     97   23.0   14.6     35
Verde River
  Tangle Ck, blo, Horsesh  Feb-May    165   121    475    330    101     64    136

50% Most probable volume in 1000 acre-feet.
%AVG  Most probable volume in percent of the 1981-2010 average.
10% Volume that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.
30% Volume that has a 30 percent chance of being exceeded.
90% Volume that has a 90 percent chance of being exceeded.
70% Volume that has a 70 percent chance of being exceeded.
AVG   Average volume for the 1981-2010 period.

All forecast volumes reflect natural flow.  Actual observed flow may
be affected by upstream water management.

CBRFC


****************************************************************************

PRECIPITATION SUMMARY:

                      January `16      SEASONAL
BASIN                 % Average       % Average

  Upper Gila             70              110
  Salt-Verde            105              120
  Little Colorado        95              130

***************************************************************************

SNOWPACK SUMMARY:

                     February 1 2016
BASIN                  % Median

  Upper Gila              85
  San Francisco          140
  Salt-Verde             105
  Little Colorado        110

***************************************************************************

OBSERVED STREAM FLOW SUMMARY:

                      January `16
BASIN                  % Median

  Gila                    80
  Salt-Verde              55
  Little Colorado        135

**************************************************************************

For additional forecast information and graphical presentation material
refer to the Water Supply section of the CBRFC web page at:
www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/wsup/pub2/map/html/cpub.php

CBRFC

NNNN

$$



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