Extended Streamflow Prediction
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Water Supply Outlook                                             February 4, 2016


After the previous several months were mostly wet across much of the area, January
was comparatively dry. However, stored soil moisture remains plentiful from
last year, which would still likely translate into increased runoff efficiency
this coming Spring and Summer. While forecasts are slightly lower this month
compared to last month`s forecasts, near to slightly above normal runoff is still
expected this melt season. With the forecast of continued El Nino conditions into
Spring, chances increase that near normal to above normal runoff will be
experienced.

Current moisture conditions are generally wet across much of the ABRFC`s area,
although drier than one month ago. The headwaters of the Arkansas River received
significant snowfall in most places so far this season, and the snowpack there is
near to above normal. Snowpack conditions are also above normal along the Rio
Grande divide in Southern Colorado. Further south in New Mexico, snow pack water
equivalents are also above normal.

Seasonal runoff (April-September) is forecast to be 102 percent-of-average for
the Arkansas River at Salida and 105 percent-of-average below Pueblo Reservoir.
Runoff from Grape Creek, and the Cucharas and Huerfano Rivers is forecast to
be 112, 92, and 109 percent-of-average, respectively. Chalk Creek is forecast to
provide 96 percent-of-average runoff.  Runoff from the Purgatoire River is
forecast to be 91 percent-of-average.

In New Mexico, seasonal runoff (March-June) from Rayado and Ponil Creeks is
forecast to be 103 percent-of-average at both locations. The Vermejo and
Cimarron Rivers are forecast to be 96 and 102 percent-of-average.

Water-year-to-date precipitation (October-January) in the mountain headwaters of
Colorado ranges from slightly below-normal to above-normal. Reports range from 89
percent-of-average at Brumley to 123 percent-of-average at Fremont Pass. Snowpack
above Salida, as measured by (NRCS) SNOTEL sites, is above-average with 114
percent-of-median snowpack. In the Purgatoire River basin, the snow pack is at
117 percent-of-median.

New Mexico`s water-year-to-date precipitation is above average. Reports range from
111 percent-of-average at Red River Pass #2 to 147 percent-of-average near
Wesner Springs. Snowpack in the Canadian River basin is about 122 percent-of-median
for this time of year.

Reservoir storage in the Arkansas River system is 136 percent-of-average above
Pueblo Reservoir and 148 percent-of-average below it.  The upper reservoirs are at
102 percent of last year`s total.  The lower reservoirs are at 386 percent of last
year`s total.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues three-month temperature and
precipitation outlooks for the nation. The outlooks for February through April
call for equal chances of above normal, below normal, or near normal temperatures
in the headwaters of the Arkansas River in Colorado, and a slight increased chance
of below normal temperatures in the Canadian River headwaters in New Mexico.
CPC`s precipitation outlook calls for increased chances (40%-50%) of above-normal
precipitation in the mountains the of central Colorado. The chances increase to
(50%-60%) in southern Colorado and the Canadian River headwaters in New Mexico.

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