Extended Streamflow Prediction
Issued by NWS Missouri Basin, Pleasant Hill

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000
FGUS63 KKRF 111504
ESPKRF

WATER SUPPLY FORECAST
NWS MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
PLEASANT HILL MO

904 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

DISSEMINATED WITH PERMISSION OF THE
US NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE

DATA CURRENT AS OF: FEBRUARY 03 2016
BASED ON FEBRUARY 01 2016 FORECAST VALUES


FINAL MISSOURI/YELLOWSTONE/PLATTE RIVER BASIN FORECASTS
                                            50% % OF  MAX  MIN 30-YR
FORECAST POINT                     PERIOD   KAF) AVG (KAF)(KAF)  AVG
--------------                     ------  ----- --- ---------- ----
ST. MARY R NR BABB (2)             APR-JUL  315  85   385  245   370
                                   APR-SEP  365  86   435  295   425
LIMA RESERVOIR INFLOW (2)          APR-JUL   74  90   109   38    82
                                   APR-SEP   80  90   119   41    89
CLARK CANYON RESERVOIR INFLOW (2)  APR-JUL   85  84   146   25   101
                                   APR-SEP  105  88   175   36   120
BEAVERHEAD R AT BARRETTS (2)       APR-JUL  117  91   240   25   129
                                   APR-SEP  144  92   290   36   156
BIG HOLE R NR MELROSE              APR-JUL  615 119   830  395   515
                                   APR-SEP  660 118   895  430   560
RUBY R RESERVOIR INFLOW (2)        APR-JUL   75  97   102   50    77
                                   APR-SEP   89  98   119   59    91
HEBGEN RESERVOIR INFLOW (2)        APR-JUL  330  89   400  260   370
                                   APR-SEP  420  89   500  335   470
ENNIS RESERVOIR INFLOW (2)         APR-JUL  550  88   700  400   625
                                   APR-SEP  680  88   855  505   775
GALLATIN R NR GATEWAY              APR-JUL  375  94   470  280   400
                                   APR-SEP  435  93   545  325   470
GALLATIN R AT LOGAN                APR-JUL  400  91   570  230   440
                                   APR-SEP  455  90   645  265   505
MISSOURI R AT TOSTON (2)           APR-JUL 1680  94  2320 1030  1790
                                   APR-SEP 1920  93  2680 1160  2070
MISSOURI R AT FORT BENTON (2)      APR-JUL 2290  88  3200 1370  2610
                                   APR-SEP 2720  87  3820 1610  3110
MISSOURI R NR VIRGELLE (2)         APR-JUL 2520  84  3550 1480  3000
                                   APR-SEP 2960  84  4210 1710  3520
MISSOURI R NR LANDUSKY (2)         APR-JUL 2650  84  3740 1570  3160
                                   APR-SEP 3130  84  4440 1820  3720
MISSOURI R BL FT PECK DAM (2)      APR-JUL 2660  82  3840 1480  3240
                                   APR-SEP 3020  82  4530 1510  3700
LAKE SAKAKAWEA INFLOW (2)          APR-JUL 6580  79  9260 3880  8310
                                   APR-SEP 7320  78 10600 3990  9400
SHEEP CK NR WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS  APR-JUL 15.0  97    20  9.5  15.5
                                   APR-SEP 17.8  97    24 11.6  18.4
GIBSON RESERVOIR INFLOW (2)        APR-JUL  275  70   375  177   395
                                   APR-SEP  310  70   415  205   440
MARIAS R NR SHELBY (2)             APR-JUL  205  59   385   54   345
                                   APR-SEP  210  58   400   52   360
NF MUSSELSHELL R NR DELPINE        APR-JUL  3.2  94   5.3 1.12   3.4
                                   APR-SEP  3.8  95   6.2 1.43   4.0
SF MUSSELSHELL R AB MARTINSDALE    APR-JUL   31  89    63 1.00    35
                                   APR-SEP   34  89    68 1.00    38
MUSSELSHELL R AT HARLOWTON (2)     APR-JUL   46  81   101 -2.0    57
                                   APR-SEP   47  80   105 -2.0    59
MILK R AT WESTERN CROSSING         MAR-SEP   27  82    54 11.8    33*
YELLOWSTONE R AT YELLOWSTONE LAKE  APR-JUL  520  90   625  415   575
                                   APR-SEP  685  89   820  550   770
YELLOWSTONE R AT CORWIN SPRINGS    APR-JUL 1470  92  1730 1210  1590
                                   APR-SEP 1720  91  2030 1410  1880
YELLOWSTONE R AT LIVINGSTON        APR-JUL 1680  93  2000 1350  1800
                                   APR-SEP 1970  92  2350 1590  2140
YELLOWSTONE R AT BILLINGS          APR-JUL 2930  91  3710 2150  3230
                                   APR-SEP 3350  90  4260 2430  3730
YELLOWSTONE R AT MILES CITY (2)    APR-JUL 3830  80  5240 2410  4780
                                   APR-SEP 4280  79  5950 2620  5450
YELLOWSTONE R NR SIDNEY (2)        APR-JUL 3720  77  5320 2120  4830
                                   APR-SEP 4050  75  5950 2150  5430
BOULDER R AT BIG TIMBER            APR-JUL  250  89   315  179   280
                                   APR-SEP  265  88   340  186   300
STILLWATER R NR ABSAROKEE (2)      APR-JUL  405  91   505  305   445
                                   APR-SEP  470  90   585  360   520
CLARKS FK YELLOWSTONE R NR BELFRY  APR-JUL  465  91   555  375   510
                                   APR-SEP  500  91   595  405   550
BOYSEN RESERVOIR INFLOW (2)        APR-JUL  365  60   725  2.0   610
                                   APR-SEP  375  56   755  2.0   665
BIGHORN R AT KANE (2)              APR-JUL  420  50   935  5.0   840
                                   APR-SEP  405  45   960  5.0   905
BIGHORN R NR ST. XAVIER (2)        APR-JUL  890  64  1510  275  1380
                                   APR-SEP  870  60  1550  193  1460
GREYBULL R NR MEETEETSE            APR-JUL   98  75   133   63   131
                                   APR-SEP  132  75   175   89   177
SHELL CK NR SHELL                  APR-JUL   33  60    49 17.8    55
                                   APR-SEP   42  64    59   26    66
BUFFALO BILL RESERVOIR INFLOW (2)  APR-JUL  610  90   755  470   675
                                   APR-SEP  665  89   815  515   745
LITTLE BIGHORN R NR HARDIN         APR-JUL   41  42    89 -6.9    98
                                   APR-SEP   47  42   100 -5.6   111
TONGUE R NR DAYTON (2)             APR-JUL   46  53    77 14.8    86
                                   APR-SEP   54  55    87   20    98
TONGUE RIVER RESERVOIR INFLOW (2)  APR-JUL   94  49   200  5.0   193
                                   APR-SEP  106  49   220  5.0   215
ROCK CK NR BUFFALO                 APR-JUL 10.0  54  16.0  4.0  18.6
                                   APR-SEP 12.2  55  18.7  5.7    22
NF POWDER R NR HAZELTON            APR-JUL  4.9  54   7.4  2.4   9.1
                                   APR-SEP  5.4  55   8.0  2.8   9.9
POWDER R AT MOORHEAD               APR-JUL   63  36   163 1.00   177
                                   APR-SEP   70  36   173 1.00   196
POWDER R NR LOCATE                 APR-JUL   78  39   235 1.00   199
                                   APR-SEP   85  39   250 1.00   220


UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN
                                           50%  % OF  MAX  MIN 30-YR
FORECAST POINT                     PERIOD (KAF)  AVG (KAF)(KAF)  AVG
--------------                     ------ ----- ---- ---------- ----
NORTH PLATTE R NR NORTHGATE        APR-JUL 230  102   350  115   225
                                   APR-SEP 255  102   385  126   250
ENCAMPMENT R NR ENCAMPMENT         APR-JUL 121   94   167   75   129
                                   APR-SEP 129   93   177   81   138
ROCK CK NR ARLINGTON               APR-JUL  48   98    65   31    49
                                   APR-SEP  50   96    68   32    52
SEMINOE RESERVOIR INFLOW (2)       APR-JUL 665   93  1070  255   715
                                   APR-SEP 715   93  1160  280   770


LOWER NORTH PLATTE, SWEETWATER & LARAMIE RIVER BASINS
                                           50%  % OF  MAX   MIN 30-YR
FORECAST POINT                     PERIOD (KAF)  AVG (KAF) (KAF)  AVG
--------------                     ------ ----- ---- ----- ----- ----
SWEETWATER R NR ALCOVA             APR-JUL   20  34    56  1.00    59
                                   APR-SEP   24  38    63  1.00    64
LA PRELE CK AB LA PRELE RESERVOIR  APR-JUL 17.6  88    37  0.70  19.9
                                   APR-SEP 17.8  89    37  0.70  19.9
NORTH PLATTE R BL GLENDO RES (2)   APR-JUL  710  87   975   445   820
                                   APR-SEP  725  85  1000   445   850
NORTH PLATTE R BL GUERNSEY RES (2) APR-JUL  720  88  1050   395   820
                                   APR-SEP  750  88  1090   410   850
LARAMIE R NR WOODS                 APR-JUL  117 102   156    77   115
                                   APR-SEP  128 102   171    86   126
LITTLE LARAMIE R NR FILMORE        APR-JUL   49  96    68    30    51
                                   APR-SEP   52  95    73    31    55


SOUTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN
                                           50%  % OF  MAX   MIN 30-YR
FORECAST POINT                     PERIOD (KAF)  AVG (KAF) (KAF)  AVG
--------------                     ------ ----- ---- ----- ----- ----
ANTERO RESERVOIR INFLOW            APR-JUL 13.0  90  19.6   6.4  14.5
                                   APR-SEP 16.0  90    23   8.5  17.8
SPINNEY MOUNTAIN RES INFLOW (2)    APR-JUL   45  94    91    22    48
                                   APR-SEP   57  93   119    27    61
ELEVENMILE CANYON RES INFLOW (2)   APR-JUL   46  92    96    22    50
                                   APR-SEP   59  92   130    27    64
CHEESMAN LAKE INFLOW (2)           APR-JUL   90  90   193    42   100
                                   APR-SEP  113  90   245    52   126
SOUTH PLATTE R AT SOUTH PLATTE (2) APR-JUL  160  89   370    69   180
                                   APR-SEP  200  89   465    86   225
BEAR CK AB EVERGREEN               APR-JUL 15.6  95    36   6.8  16.4
                                   APR-SEP   20  95    44   9.1    21
CLEAR CK AT GOLDEN                 APR-JUL  103  98   132    74   105
                                   APR-SEP  126  98   162    90   128
ST. VRAIN CK AT LYONS (2)          APR-JUL   85  97   106    64    88
                                   APR-SEP   99  96   124    74   103
BOULDER CK NR ORODELL (2)          APR-JUL   55 102    71    40    54
                                   APR-SEP   63 100    82    45    63
S BOULDER CK NR ELDORADO SPRINGS(2)APR-JUL   37  95    45    29    39
                                   APR-SEP   41  95    51    31    43
BIG THOMPSON R AT CANYON MOUTH (2) APR-JUL   85  94   110    60    90
                                   APR-SEP  102  95   132    72   107
CACHE LA POUDRE AT CANYON MOUTH (2)APR-JUL  210  93   285   133   225
                                   APR-SEP  230  92   315   144   250

MAX (10%), 30%, 50%, 70% AND MIN (90%) CHANCE THAT ACTUAL VOLUME WILL
EXCEED FORECAST.
AVERAGES ARE FOR THE 1981-2010 PERIOD.
ALL VOLUMES ARE IN THOUSANDS OF ACRE-FEET.

 FOOTNOTES:
 1) MAX AND MIN ARE 5% AND 95% CHANCE THAT ACTUAL VOLUME WILL
    EXCEED FORECAST
 2) STREAMFLOW IS ADJUSTED FOR UPSTREAM STORAGE
 3) MEDIAN VALUE USED IN PLACE OF AVERAGE

* MILK RIVER MEDIANS ARE FOR YEARS 1980-2008 & MARKED "30%" IS 25%
  EXCEEDANCE AND MARKED "70%" IS 75% EXCEEDANCE.





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