Extended Streamflow Prediction
Issued by NWS Missouri Basin, Pleasant Hill

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FGUS63 KKRF 171620
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MISSOURI  BASIN RIVER  FORECAST  CENTER WATER  SUPPLY  STATEMENT
ISSUED IN COOPERATION WITH NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE
ISSUED:  FEBRUARY 17, 2015


UPPER MISSOURI BASIN

THE HIGH ELEVATION SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER MISSOURI BASIN AS OF
FEBRUARY 1 WAS NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE.  THE SNOW PACK ABOVE TOSTON,
MONTANA WAS 122 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.  THE SNOW PACK BETWEEN TOSTON
AND FORT PECK, MONTANA WAS 108 PERCENT.  THE SNOW PACK IN THE ST
MARY AND MILK RIVER BASINS WAS 79 PERCENT.

JANUARY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE UPPER MISSOURI BASIN RANGED FROM BELOW
TO ABOVE AVERAGE.  BASIN PRECIPITATION SUMMARIES FOR THE MISSOURI BASIN
INCLUDE: MILK ST. MARY,  85 PERCENT; MILK CANADA, 209 PERCENT;
LOWER MILK, 161 PERCENT; ABOVE TOSTON, 57 PERCENT; TOSTON TO
FT. PECK, 158 PERCENT.

STREAM FLOW IN THE UPPER MISSOURI BASIN IS FORECAST TO BE BELOW
AVERAGE DURING THE UPCOMING SPRING AND SUMMER.  THE ST. MARY
RIVER IS FORECAST TO HAVE 82 PERCENT OF AVERAGE APRIL-SEPTEMBER
FLOWS.  RUNOFF IS EXPECTED TO RANGE AROUND 88 PERCENT OF AVERAGE
FOR THE MISSOURI BASIN ABOVE FORT PECK, MONTANA.

OF THE FOUR MAJOR IRRIGATION RESERVOIRS IN MONTANA:  LIMA RESERVOIR
HAD 114 PERCENT AVERAGE STORAGE, CLARK CANYON WAS HOLDING 82 PERCENT
OF AVERAGE WATER, GIBSON RESERVOIR HAD 43 PERCENT OF AVERAGE STORED
WATER, AND FRESNO RESERVOIR HAD 168 PERCENT OF AVERAGE STORED WATER.
THE  MAJOR  HYDROELECTRIC  RESERVOIRS  IN  MONTANA (CANYON  FERRY AND
FORT PECK) HAD MONTHEND STORAGE IN THE NEAR AVERAGE RANGE; 102 AND 116
PERCENT OF AVERAGE WATER, RESPECTIVELY.

YELLOWSTONE BASIN

THE HIGH ELEVATION SNOW PACK IN THE YELLOWSTONE BASIN WAS
AVERAGE ON FEBRUARY 1.  THE SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER YELLOWSTONE
BASIN WAS 111 PERCENT OF AVERAGE OVERALL.  THE SNOW PACKS IN THE WIND,
BIGHORN, AND SHOSHONE BASINS WERE 94, 106, AND 105 PERCENT OF AVERAGE,
RESPECTIVELY.  THE SNOW PACKS IN THE TONGUE AND POWDER BASINS WERE
96 AND 113 PERCENT OF AVERAGE, RESPECTIVELY.

PRECIPITATION DURING JANUARY RANGED FROM BELOW TO ABOVE AVERAGE.  THE UPPER
YELLOWSTONE RIVER BASIN RECEIVED 107 PERCENT OF AVERAGE PRECIPITATION
WHILE THE LOWER YELLOWSTONE BASIN REPORTED 141 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.
THE BIGHORN BASIN RECEIVED 83 PERCENT OF AVERAGE PRECIPITATION WHILE
THE WIND RIVER BASIN RECEIVED 42 PERCENT OF AVERAGE. THE LITTLE
BIGHORN - UPPER TONGUE BASIN RECEIVED 128 PERCENT OF AVERAGE
AND THE POWDER RIVER HAD 78 PERCENT OF AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.

FORECAST STREAM FLOW IN THE YELLOWSTONE BASIN IS NEAR AVERAGE
FOR THE UPCOMING SPRING AND SUMMER.  STREAM FLOW FOR THE WIND-BIGHORN
BASIN ABOVE ST. XAVIER, MONTANA IS FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 88 PERCENT OF
AVERAGE.  FLOW IN THE TONGUE BASIN IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 95 PERCENT
OF AVERAGE.  FLOWS IN THE POWDER RIVER ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 95
PERCENT OF AVERAGE.

MONTHEND STORAGE AT BOYSEN RESERVOIR WAS 125 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.
STORED WATER IN BUFFALO BILL RESERVOIR WAS 131 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.
MONTHEND STORAGE WAS 106 PERCENT OF AVERAGE AT BIGHORN RESERVOIR.

PLATTE BASIN

THE HIGH ELEVATION  SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER NORTH PLATTE BASIN WAS
74 PERCENT OF AVERAGE ON FEBRUARY 1.  THE SNOW PACK IN THE NORTH
PLATTE  BASIN BELOW SEMINOE RESERVOIR WAS 76 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.
THE SNOW PACK IN THE SOUTH PLATTE BASIN WAS 86 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.

JANUARY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLATTE BASIN WAS BELOW AVERAGE.
PRECIPITATION DURING JANUARY IN THE NORTH PLATTE BASIN ABOVE SEMINOE
RESERVOIR WAS 41 PERCENT OF AVERAGE. IN THE NORTH PLATTE BASIN BETWEEN
SEMINOE RESERVOIR AND GUERNSY RESERVOIR PRECIPITATION WAS 54 PERCENT
OF AVERAGE. THE NORTH PLATTE BASIN BELOW GUERNSY RESERVOIR HAD 71 PERCENT
OF AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.  THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTH PLATTE
BASIN HAD 85 PERCENT OF AVERAGE PRECIPITATION WHEREAS THE PLAINS HAD
67 PERCENT OF AVERAGE JANUARY PRECIPITATION.

STREAM FLOW IN THE PLATTE BASIN IS FORECAST TO BE BELOW AVERAGE
DURING THE UPCOMING SPRING AND SUMMER. RUNOFF FOR STREAMS
ABOVE SEMINOE RESERVOIR ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 62 PERCENT
OF AVERAGE.  STREAM FLOWS FOR THE NORTH PLATTE BELOW SEMINOE
RESERVOIR ARE FORECAST TO BE 55 PERCENT OF AVERAGE. STREAMS
IN THE SOUTH PLATTE BASIN ABOVE SOUTH PLATTE, COLORADO CAN EXPECT
90 PERCENT OF AVERAGE FLOW. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH
PLATTE BASIN FLOWS ARE EXPECTED NEAR 94 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.

STORED WATER IN THE SOUTH PLATTE BASIN WAS 119 PERCENT OF AVERAGE
ON FEBRUARY 1.  STORED WATER IN THE NORTH PLATTE BASIN WAS 119
PERCENT OF AVERAGE



WATER SUPPLY FORECAST
NWS MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
103 PM CST MON FEB 9 2015

DISSEMINATED WITH PERMISSION OF THE
US NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE

DATA CURRENT AS OF: FEBRUARY 06 2015
BASED ON FABRUARY 1 2015 FORECAST VALUES


FINAL MISSOURI/YELLOWSTONE/PLATTE RIVER BASIN FORECASTS
                                         50%  % OF  MAX   MIN 30-YR
FORECAST POINT                    PERIOD (KAF) AVG (KAF) (KAF) AVG
--------------                    ------ --------- ----- ----------
ST. MARY R NR BABB (2)            APR-JUL  300  81   370   235  370
                                  APR-SEP  350  82   425   280  425
LIMA RESERVOIR INFLOW (2)         APR-JUL   53  65    86    20   82
                                  APR-SEP   56  63    94  17.6   89
CLARK CANYON RESERVOIR INFLOW (2) APR-JUL   57  56   144 -15.0  101
                                  APR-SEP   71  59   166  -4.0  120
BEAVERHEAD R AT BARRETTS (2)      APR-JUL   86  67   210    20  129
                                  APR-SEP  106  68   250    30  156
BIG HOLE R NR MELROSE             APR-JUL  650 126   850   455  515
                                  APR-SEP  705 126   925   485  560
RUBY R RESERVOIR INFLOW (2)       APR-JUL   46  60    72    20   77
                                  APR-SEP   58  64    88    28   91
HEBGEN RESERVOIR INFLOW (2)       APR-JUL  315  85   385   245  370
                                  APR-SEP  405  86   490   320  470
ENNIS RESERVOIR INFLOW (2)        APR-JUL  475  76   625   325  625
                                  APR-SEP  600  77   775   425  775
GALLATIN R NR GATEWAY             APR-JUL  365  91   460   270  400
                                  APR-SEP  430  91   540   320  470
GALLATIN R AT LOGAN               APR-JUL  400  91   570   230  440
                                  APR-SEP  455  90   645   265  505
MISSOURI R AT TOSTON (2)          APR-JUL 1540  86  2180   900 1790
                                  APR-SEP 1780  86  2540  1020 2070
MISSOURI R AT FORT BENTON (2)     APR-JUL 2270  87  3190  1350 2610
                                  APR-SEP 2710  87  3820  1600 3110
MISSOURI R NR VIRGELLE (2)        APR-JUL 2630  88  3660  1600 3000
                                  APR-SEP 3080  88  4330  1830 3520
MISSOURI R NR LANDUSKY (2)        APR-JUL 2780  88  3860  1700 3160
                                  APR-SEP 3260  88  4570  1950 3720
MISSOURI R BL FT PECK DAM (2)     APR-JUL 2810  87  3990  1630 3240
                                  APR-SEP 3170  86  4680  1660 3700
LAKE SAKAKAWEA INFLOW (2)         APR-JUL 7970  96 10600  5270 8310
                                  APR-SEP 8950  95 12300  5620 9400
SHEEP CK NR WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS APR-JUL 19.2 124    25  13.8 15.5
                                  APR-SEP   23 125    29  16.3 18.4
GIBSON RESERVOIR INFLOW (2)       APR-JUL  390  99   480   295  395
                                  APR-SEP  430  98   530   330  440
MARIAS R NR SHELBY (2)            APR-JUL  325  94   500   144  345
                                  APR-SEP  335  93   520   144  360
NF MUSSELSHELL R NR DELPINE       APR-JUL  4.1 121   6.2   2.0  3.4
                                  APR-SEP  4.8 120   7.2   2.4  4.0
SF MUSSELSHELL R AB MARTINSDALE   APR-JUL   35 100    67   3.0   35
                                  APR-SEP   38 100    72   3.9   38
MUSSELSHELL R AT HARLOWTON (2)    APR-JUL   62 109   117   7.5   57
                                  APR-SEP   62 105   120   3.8   59
MILK R AT WESTERN CROSSING        MAR-SEP   35 108    61  17.8   33*
MILK R AT EASTERN CROSSING        MAR-SEP   77  95   149    43   81*
YELLOWSTONE R AT YELLOWSTONE LAKE APR-JUL  545  95   650   440  575
                                  APR-SEP  715  93   850   580  770
YELLOWSTONE R AT CORWIN SPRINGS   APR-JUL 1680 106  1940  1420 1590
                                  APR-SEP 1970 105  2280  1660 1880
YELLOWSTONE R AT LIVINGSTON       APR-JUL 1920 107  2240  1590 1800
                                  APR-SEP 2250 105  2630  1870 2140
YELLOWSTONE R AT BILLINGS         APR-JUL 3460 107  4240  2690 3230
                                  APR-SEP 3970 106  4890  3050 3730
YELLOWSTONE R AT MILES CITY (2)   APR-JUL 4920 103  6340  3500 4780
                                  APR-SEP 5590 103  7260  3920 5450
YELLOWSTONE R NR SIDNEY (2)       APR-JUL 4980 103  6580  3380 4830
                                  APR-SEP 5570 103  7470  3670 5430
BOULDER R AT BIG TIMBER           APR-JUL  280 100   345   210  280
                                  APR-SEP  300 100   375   220  300
STILLWATER R NR ABSAROKEE (2)     APR-JUL  460 103   560   360  445
                                  APR-SEP  540 104   655   430  520
CLARKS FK YELLOWSTONE R NR BELFRY APR-JUL  595 117   685   505  510
                                  APR-SEP  655 119   750   560  550
BOYSEN RESERVOIR INFLOW (2)       APR-JUL  485  80   890    79  610
                                  APR-SEP  540  81   975   101  665
BIGHORN R AT KANE (2)             APR-JUL  730  87  1250   210  840
                                  APR-SEP  790  87  1350   235  905
BIGHORN R NR ST. XAVIER (2)       APR-JUL 1300  94  1910   685 1380
                                  APR-SEP 1380  95  2060   700 1460
GREYBULL R NR MEETEETSE           APR-JUL  134 102   169    99  131
                                  APR-SEP  182 103   225   139  177
SHELL CK NR SHELL                 APR-JUL   52  95    67    37   55
                                  APR-SEP   64  97    80    47   66
BUFFALO BILL RESERVOIR INFLOW (2) APR-JUL  700 104   840   560  675
                                  APR-SEP  775 104   925   625  745
LITTLE BIGHORN R NR HARDIN        APR-JUL   93  95   141    45   98
                                  APR-SEP  109  98   162    56  111
TONGUE R NR DAYTON (2)            APR-JUL   83  97   114    52   86
                                  APR-SEP   95  97   128    62   98
TONGUE RIVER RESERVOIR INFLOW (2) APR-JUL  179  93   285    72  193
                                  APR-SEP  200  93   310    88  215
ROCK CK NR BUFFALO                APR-JUL 18.7 101    25  12.7 18.6
                                  APR-SEP   22 100    29  15.8   22
NF POWDER R NR HAZELTON           APR-JUL  9.7 107  12.2   7.2  9.1
                                  APR-SEP 10.4 105  13.0   7.8  9.9
POWDER R AT MOORHEAD              APR-JUL  169  95   270    69  177
                                  APR-SEP  189  96   290    86  196
POWDER R NR LOCATE                APR-JUL  191  96   315    67  199
                                  APR-SEP  210  95   345    79  220


UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN
                                          50% % OF  MAX   MIN 30-YR
FORECAST POINT                    PERIOD (KAF) AVG (KAF) (KAF) AVG
--------------                    ------ --------- ----- ----------
NORTH PLATTE R NR NORTHGATE       APR-JUL  137  61   255  19.7  225
                                  APR-SEP  150  60   280    21  250
ENCAMPMENT R NR ENCAMPMENT        APR-JUL   80  62   126    34  129
                                  APR-SEP   85  62   133    37  138
ROCK CK NR ARLINGTON              APR-JUL   39  80    56    22   49
                                  APR-SEP   42  81    60    24   52
SEMINOE RESERVOIR INFLOW (2)      APR-JUL  440  62   850    32  715
                                  APR-SEP  475  62   910    34  770


LOWER NORTH PLATTE, SWEETWATER & LARAMIE RIVER BASINS
                                          50% % OF  MAX   MIN 30-YR
FORECAST POINT                    PERIOD (KAF) AVG (KAF) (KAF) AVG
--------------                    ------ --------- ----- ----------
SWEETWATER R NR ALCOVA            APR-JUL   28  47    64   6.0   59
                                  APR-SEP   30  47    69   7.0   64
LA PRELE CK AB LA PRELE RESERVOIR APR-JUL  7.8  39    27  0.50 19.9
                                  APR-SEP  7.8  39    27  0.50 19.9
NORTH PLATTE R BL GLENDO RES (2)  APR-JUL  445  54   710   181  820
                                  APR-SEP  445  52   720   166  850
NORTH PLATTE R BL GUERNSEY R (2)  APR-JUL  440  54   770   113  820
                                  APR-SEP  455  54   795   114  850
LARAMIE R NR WOODS                APR-JUL   78  68   117    39  115
                                  APR-SEP   86  68   128    43  126
LITTLE LARAMIE R NR FILMORE       APR-JUL   37  73    55  18.0   51
                                  APR-SEP   39  71    60  18.5   55


SOUTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN
                                          50% % OF  MAX   MIN 30-YR
FORECAST POINT                    PERIOD (KAF) AVG (KAF) (KAF) AVG
--------------                    ------ --------- ----- ----------
ANTERO RESERVOIR INFLOW           APR-JUL 12.5  86  19.1   5.9 14.5
                                  APR-SEP 15.5  87    23   8.0 17.8
SPINNEY MOUNTAIN RES INFLOW (2)   APR-JUL   44  92    89    22   48
                                  APR-SEP   55  90   115    26   61
ELEVENMILE CANYON RES INFLOW (2)  APR-JUL   46  92    96    22   50
                                  APR-SEP   58  91   127    26   64
CHEESMAN LAKE INFLOW (2)          APR-JUL   95  95   205    44  100
                                  APR-SEP  120  95   260    55  126
SOUTH PLATTE R AT S PLATTE (2)    APR-JUL  170  94   395    74  180
                                  APR-SEP  215  96   495    92  225
BEAR CK AB EVERGREEN              APR-JUL 15.6  95    36   6.8 16.4
                                  APR-SEP   20  95    44   9.1   21
CLEAR CK AT GOLDEN                APR-JUL   99  94   128    70  105
                                  APR-SEP  119  93   155    83  128
ST. VRAIN CK AT LYONS (2)         APR-JUL   84  95   105    63   88
                                  APR-SEP   97  94   122    72  103
BOULDER CK NR ORODELL (2)         APR-JUL   52  96    63    41   54
                                  APR-SEP   60  95    73    47   63
S BOULDER CK NR ELDORADO SPRS (2) APR-JUL   36  92    44    28   39
                                  APR-SEP   40  93    50    30   43
BIG THOMPSON R AT CANYON MTH (2)  APR-JUL   85  94   110    60   90
                                  APR-SEP  103  96   132    73  107
CACHE LA POUDRE AT CANYON MTH (2) APR-JUL  205  91   280   128  225
                                  APR-SEP  225  90   310   139  250


 MAX (10%), 30%, 50%, 70% AND MIN (90%) CHANCE THAT ACTUAL VOLUME
 WILL EXCEED FORECAST.  AVERAGES ARE FOR THE 1981-2010 PERIOD.
 ALL VOLUMES ARE IN THOUSANDS OF ACRE-FEET.

 FOOTNOTES:
 1) MAX AND MIN ARE 5% AND 95% CHANCE THAT ACTUAL VOLUME WILL
    EXCEED FORECAST
 2) STREAMFLOW IS ADJUSTED FOR UPSTREAM STORAGE
 3) MEDIAN VALUE USED IN PLACE OF AVERAGE

* MILK RIVER MEDIANS ARE FOR YEARS 1980-2008
* DATA CURRENT AS OF: FEBRUARY 6 2015


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