Extended Streamflow Prediction
Issued by NWS Missouri Basin, Pleasant Hill

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MISSOURI  BASIN RIVER  FORECAST  CENTER WATER  SUPPLY  STATEMENT
ISSUED IN COOPERATION WITH NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE
ISSUED:  JANUARY 14, 2016


UPPER MISSOURI BASIN

THE HIGH ELEVATION SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER MISSOURI BASIN AS OF
JANUARY 1 WAS NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE.  THE SNOW PACK ABOVE FORT PECK,
MONTANA WAS 102 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.  THE SNOW PACK IN THE ST MARY
BASIN WAS 87 PERCENT, AND THE MILK BASIN WAS 65 PERCENT.

DECEMBER PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE UPPER MISSOURI BASIN WAS ABOVE
AVERAGE.  BASIN PRECIPITATION SUMMARIES FOR THE MISSOURI BASIN
INCLUDE: MILK ST. MARY,  214 PERCENT; MILK CANADA, 104 PERCENT;
LOWER MILK, 154 PERCENT; ABOVE TOSTON, 157 PERCENT; TOSTON TO FT.
PECK, 134 PERCENT.

STREAM FLOW IN THE UPPER MISSOURI BASIN IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR
AVERAGE DURING THE UPCOMING SPRING AND SUMMER.  THE ST. MARY RIVER
IS FORECAST TO HAVE 92 PERCENT OF AVERAGE APRIL-SEPTEMBER FLOWS.
RUNOFF IS EXPECTED TO RANGE AROUND 90 PERCENT OF AVERAGE FOR THE
MISSOURI BASIN ABOVE FORT PECK, MONTANA.

OF THE FOUR MAJOR IRRIGATION RESERVOIRS IN MONTANA:  LIMA RESERVOIR
HAD 73 PERCENT AVERAGE STORAGE, CLARK CANYON WAS HOLDING 72 PERCENT
OF AVERAGE WATER, GIBSON RESERVOIR HAD 39 PERCENT OF AVERAGE STORED
WATER, AND FRESNO RESERVOIR HAD 130 PERCENT OF AVERAGE STORED WATER.

THE  MAJOR  HYDROELECTRIC  RESERVOIRS  IN  MONTANA (CANYON  FERRY
AND FORT PECK) HAD MONTHEND STORAGE IN THE NEAR AVERAGE RANGE; 92
AND 115 PERCENT OF AVERAGE WATER, RESPECTIVELY.

YELLOWSTONE BASIN

THE HIGH ELEVATION SNOW PACK IN THE YELLOWSTONE BASIN WAS BELOW
AVERAGE ON JANUARY 1.  THE SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER YELLOWSTONE BASIN
WAS 96 PERCENT OF AVERAGE OVERALL.  THE SNOW PACKS IN THE WIND,
BIGHORN, AND SHOSHONE BASINS WERE 76, 76, AND 97 PERCENT OF AVERAGE,
RESPECTIVELY.  THE SNOW PACKS IN THE TONGUE AND POWDER BASINS WERE
47 AND 56 PERCENT OF AVERAGE, RESPECTIVELY.

PRECIPITATION DURING DECEMBER WAS MAINLY BELOW AVERAGE.  THE UPPER
YELLOWSTONE RIVER BASIN RECEIVED 143 PERCENT OF AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION WHILE THE LOWER YELLOWSTONE BASIN REPORTED 72 PERCENT
OF AVERAGE.  THE BIGHORN BASIN RECEIVED 87 PERCENT OF AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION WHILE THE WIND RIVER BASIN RECEIVED 68 PERCENT OF
AVERAGE. THE LITTLE BIGHORN - UPPER TONGUE BASIN RECEIVED 54 PERCENT
OF AVERAGE AND THE POWDER RIVER HAD 80 PERCENT OF AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION.

FORECAST STREAM FLOW IN THE YELLOWSTONE BASIN IS BELOW AVERAGE FOR
THE UPCOMING SPRING AND SUMMER.  STREAM FLOW FOR THE WIND-BIGHORN
BASIN ABOVE ST. XAVIER, MONTANA IS FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 62 PERCENT
OF AVERAGE.  FLOW IN THE TONGUE BASIN IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 65
PERCENT OF AVERAGE.  FLOWS IN THE POWDER RIVER ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ABOUT 47 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.

MONTHEND STORAGE AT BOYSEN RESERVOIR WAS 108 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.
STORED WATER IN BUFFALO BILL RESERVOIR WAS 119 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.
MONTHEND STORAGE WAS 101 PERCENT OF AVERAGE AT BIGHORN RESERVOIR.

PLATTE BASIN

THE HIGH ELEVATION  SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER NORTH PLATTE BASIN WAS 95
PERCENT OF AVERAGE ON JANUARY 1.  THE SNOW PACK IN THE NORTH  PLATTE
BASIN BELOW SEMINOE RESERVOIR WAS 80 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.
THE SNOW PACK IN THE SOUTH PLATTE BASIN WAS 116 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.

DECEMBER PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH PLATTE BASIN WAS ABOVE
AVERAGE. PRECIPITATION DURING DECEMBER IN THE UPPER NORTH PLATTE
BASIN WAS 125 PERCENT OF AVERAGE. IN THE LOWER NORTH PLATTE BASIN
PRECIPITATION WAS 146 PERCENT OF AVERAGE. THE NORTH PLATTE PLAINS
BELOW GUERNSY RESERVOIR HAD 260 PERCENT OF AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.
THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTH PLATTE BASIN HAD 129 PERCENT
WHEREAS THE PLAINS HAD 228 PERCENT OF AVERAGE DECEMBER PRECIPITATION.

STREAM FLOW IN THE PLATTE BASIN IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR AVERAGE
DURING THE UPCOMING SPRING AND SUMMER. RUNOFF FOR STREAMS ABOVE
SEMINOE RESERVOIR ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 95 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.
STREAM FLOWS FOR THE NORTH PLATTE BELOW SEMINOE RESERVOIR ARE
FORECAST TO BE 85 PERCENT OF AVERAGE. STREAMS IN THE SOUTH PLATTE
BASIN ABOVE SOUTH PLATTE, COLORADO CAN EXPECT 100 PERCENT OF AVERAGE
FLOW. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH PLATTE BASIN FLOWS ARE EXPECTED
NEAR 105 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.

STORED WATER IN THE SOUTH PLATTE BASIN WAS 107 PERCENT OF AVERAGE ON
JANUARY 1.  STORED WATER IN THE NORTH PLATTE BASIN WAS 130 PERCENT
OF AVERAGE




WATER SUPPLY FORECAST
NWS MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
PLEASANT HILL MO

1159 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016

DISSEMINATED WITH PERMISSION OF THE
US NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE

DATA CURRENT AS OF: JANUARY 06 2016
BASED ON JANUARY 01 2016 FORECAST VALUES


FINAL MISSOURI/YELLOWSTONE/PLATTE RIVER BASIN FORECASTS
                                            50% % OF  MAX   MIN 30-YR
FORECAST POINT                     PERIOD  (KAF) AVG (KAF) (KAF)  AVG
--------------                     ------  ----- --- ----- ----- ----
ST. MARY R NR BABB (2)             APR-JUL  335  91   420   255   370
                                   APR-SEP  390  92   475   305   425
LIMA RESERVOIR INFLOW (2)          APR-JUL   77  94   113    41    82
                                   APR-SEP   84  94   125    43    89
CLARK CANYON RESERVOIR INFLOW (2)  APR-JUL   94  93   192  -4.4   101
                                   APR-SEP  116  97   225   7.7   120
BEAVERHEAD R AT BARRETTS (2)       APR-JUL  127  98   255  1.00   129
                                   APR-SEP  156 100   305   8.9   156
BIG HOLE R NR MELROSE              APR-JUL  610 118   865   355   515
                                   APR-SEP  655 117   930   380   560
RUBY R RESERVOIR INFLOW (2)        APR-JUL   75  97   108    42    77
                                   APR-SEP   89  98   127    52    91
HEBGEN RESERVOIR INFLOW (2)        APR-JUL  340  92   425   255   370
                                   APR-SEP  430  91   535   325   470
ENNIS RESERVOIR INFLOW (2)         APR-JUL  560  90   715   400   625
                                   APR-SEP  690  89   875   505   775
GALLATIN R NR GATEWAY              APR-JUL  380  95   490   270   400
                                   APR-SEP  440  94   565   320   470
GALLATIN R AT LOGAN                APR-JUL  405  92   590   220   440
                                   APR-SEP  460  91   670   255   505
MISSOURI R AT TOSTON (2)           APR-JUL 1690  94  2450   920  1790
                                   APR-SEP 1940  94  2820  1050  2070
MISSOURI R AT FORT BENTON (2)      APR-JUL 2360  90  3350  1360  2610
                                   APR-SEP 2800  90  3970  1630  3110
MISSOURI R NR VIRGELLE (2)         APR-JUL 2660  89  3770  1540  3000
                                   APR-SEP 3100  88  4410  1790  3520
MISSOURI R NR LANDUSKY (2)         APR-JUL 2810  89  3970  1660  3160
                                   APR-SEP 3290  88  4650  1920  3720
MISSOURI R BLW FT PECK DAM (2)     APR-JUL 2850  88  4030  1670  3240
                                   APR-SEP 3200  86  4730  1670  3700
LAKE SAKAKAWEA INFLOW (2)          APR-JUL 7310  88 10000  4590  8310
                                   APR-SEP 8150  87 11500  4770  9400
SHEEP CK NR WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS  APR-JUL 14.4  93    20   8.6  15.5
                                   APR-SEP 17.1  93    24  10.5  18.4
GIBSON RESERVOIR INFLOW (2)        APR-JUL  315  80   435   197   395
                                   APR-SEP  350  80   480   225   440
MARIAS R NR SHELBY (2)             APR-JUL  280  81   475    79   345
                                   APR-SEP  285  79   490    80   360
NF MUSSELSHELL R NR DELPINE        APR-JUL  3.5 103   6.2  0.71   3.4
                                   APR-SEP  4.1 103   7.3  0.92   4.0
SF MUSSELSHELL R AB MARTINSDALE    APR-JUL   29  83    65  1.00    35
                                   APR-SEP   32  84    71  1.00    38
MUSSELSHELL R AT HARLOWTON (2)     APR-JUL   47  82   110  -2.0    57
                                   APR-SEP   48  81   115  -2.0    59
MILK R AT WESTERN CROSSING         MAR-JUL   26  93    51  1.48    28
                                   MAR-SEP   27  82    54  1.48    33
                                   APR-JUL   21  84    43  1.00    25
                                   APR-SEP   22  85    46  1.00    26
YELLOWSTONE R AT YELLOWSTONE LAKE  APR-JUL  550  96   690   410   575
                                   APR-SEP  730  95   910   550   770
YELLOWSTONE R AT CORWIN SPRINGS    APR-JUL 1590 100  1930  1250  1590
                                   APR-SEP 1860  99  2260  1460  1880
YELLOWSTONE R AT LIVINGSTON        APR-JUL 1810 101  2210  1410  1800
                                   APR-SEP 2130 100  2590  1660  2140
YELLOWSTONE R AT BILLINGS          APR-JUL 3250 101  4090  2410  3230
                                   APR-SEP 3730 100  4720  2740  3730
YELLOWSTONE R AT MILES CITY (2)    APR-JUL 4330  91  5750  2900  4780
                                   APR-SEP 4870  89  6550  3200  5450
YELLOWSTONE R NR SIDNEY (2)        APR-JUL 4240  88  5870  2620  4830
                                   APR-SEP 4690  86  6610  2770  5430
BOULDER R AT BIG TIMBER            APR-JUL  260  93   340   181   280
                                   APR-SEP  280  93   370   191   300
STILLWATER R NR ABSAROKEE (2)      APR-JUL  445 100   550   335   445
                                   APR-SEP  520 100   645   395   520
CLARKS FK YELLOWSTONE R NR BELFRY  APR-JUL  500  98   610   385   510
                                   APR-SEP  540  98   665   420   550
BOYSEN RESERVOIR INFLOW (2)        APR-JUL  400  66   750    50   610
                                   APR-SEP  415  62   790    44   665
BIGHORN R AT KANE (2)              APR-JUL  515  61  1010    25   840
                                   APR-SEP  515  57  1050    20   905
BIGHORN R NR ST. XAVIER (2)        APR-JUL 1040  75  1620   470  1380
                                   APR-SEP 1050  72  1700   405  1460
GREYBULL R NR MEETEETSE            APR-JUL  118  90   173    62   131
                                   APR-SEP  159  90   225    93   177
SHELL CK NR SHELL                  APR-JUL   35  64    51  18.6    55
                                   APR-SEP   44  67    61    26    66
BUFFALO BILL RESERVOIR INFLOW (2)  APR-JUL  665  99   825   505   675
                                   APR-SEP  730  98   900   560   745
LITTLE BIGHORN R NR HARDIN         APR-JUL   54  55   108  1.00    98
                                   APR-SEP   61  55   121  1.00   111
TONGUE R NR DAYTON (2)             APR-JUL   55  64    89    21    86
                                   APR-SEP   63  64   100    26    98
TONGUE RIVER RESERVOIR INFLOW (2)  APR-JUL  112  58   220   5.4   193
                                   APR-SEP  125  58   245  12.3   215
ROCK CK NR BUFFALO                 APR-JUL 12.1  65    22   2.3  18.6
                                   APR-SEP 15.2  69    26   4.7    22
NF POWDER R NR HAZELTON            APR-JUL  5.5  60   9.0   2.0   9.1
                                   APR-SEP  6.0  61   9.6   2.4   9.9
POWDER R AT MOORHEAD               APR-JUL   76  43   192  1.00   177
                                   APR-SEP   92  47   210  1.00   196
POWDER R NR LOCATE                 APR-JUL   83  42   225  1.00   199
                                   APR-SEP   98  45   250  1.00   220


UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN
                                            50% % OF  MAX   MIN 30-YR
FORECAST POINT                     PERIOD  (KAF) AVG (KAF) (KAF)  AVG
--------------                     ------  ----- --- ----- ----- ----
NORTH PLATTE R NR NORTHGATE        APR-JUL  225 100   345   105   225
                                   APR-SEP  250 100   380   118   250
ENCAMPMENT R NR ENCAMPMENT         APR-JUL  117  91   175    60   129
                                   APR-SEP  125  91   185    64   138
ROCK CK NR ARLINGTON               APR-JUL   48  98    66    30    49
                                   APR-SEP   51  98    70    32    52
SEMINOE RESERVOIR INFLOW (2)       APR-JUL  650  91  1060   230   715
                                   APR-SEP  705  92  1150   255   770


LOWER NORTH PLATTE...SWEETWATER & LARAMIE RIVER BASINS
                                            50% % OF  MAX   MIN 30-YR
FORECAST POINT                     PERIOD  (KAF) AVG (KAF) (KAF)  AVG
--------------                     ------  ----- --- ----- ----- ----
SWEETWATER R NR ALCOVA             APR-JUL   22  37    58  1.00    59
                                   APR-SEP   25  39    64  1.00    64
LA PRELE CK AB LA PRELE RESERVOIR  APR-JUL 12.8  64    31  0.70  19.9
                                   APR-SEP 12.5  63    31  0.70  19.9
NORTH PLATTE R BL GLENDO RES (2)   APR-JUL  695  85   960   430   820
                                   APR-SEP  715  84   990   435   850
NORTH PLATTE R BL GUERNSEY RES (2) APR-JUL  705  86  1030   375   820
                                   APR-SEP  735  86  1080   395   850
LARAMIE R NR WOODS                 APR-JUL  119 103   156    81   115
                                   APR-SEP  131 104   171    91   126
LITTLE LARAMIE R NR FILMORE        APR-JUL   49  96    70    28    51
                                   APR-SEP   52  95    75    29    55


SOUTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN
                                            50% % OF  MAX   MIN 30-YR
FORECAST POINT                     PERIOD  (KAF) AVG (KAF) (KAF)  AVG
--------------                     ------  ----- --- ----- ----- ----
ANTERO RESERVOIR INFLOW            APR-JUL 14.2  98   22    6.9  14.5
                                   APR-SEP 17.8 100   26    9.3  17.8
SPINNEY MOUNTAIN RES INFLOW (2)    APR-JUL   49 102   94     25    48
                                   APR-SEP   61 100  125     30    61
ELEVENMILE CANYON RES INFLOW (2)   APR-JUL   52 104  105     26    50
                                   APR-SEP   65 102  142     30    64
CHEESMAN LAKE INFLOW (2)           APR-JUL   98  98  193     50   100
                                   APR-SEP  125  99  250     62   126
SOUTH PLATTE R AT SOUTH PLATTE (2) APR-JUL  177  98  365     85   180
                                   APR-SEP  225 100  470    108   225
BEAR CK AB EVERGREEN               APR-JUL 17.2 105   39    7.6  16.4
                                   APR-SEP   22 105   47   10.3    21
BEAR CK AT MORRISON                APR-JUL   22 100   57    8.2    22
                                   APR-SEP   28 100   72   11.3    28
CLEAR CK AT GOLDEN                 APR-JUL  114 109  148     80   105
                                   APR-SEP  138 108  176     99   128
ST. VRAIN CK AT LYONS (2)          APR-JUL   88 100  108     69    88
                                   APR-SEP  104 101  126     82   103
BOULDER CK NR ORODELL (2)          APR-JUL   57 106   68     46    54
                                   APR-SEP   65 103   79     51    63
S BOULDER CK NR ELDORADO SPRINGS(2)APR-JUL   40 103   49     31    39
                                   APR-SEP   44 102   56     33    43
BIG THOMPSON R AT CANYON MOUTH (2) APR-JUL   87  97  108     66    90
                                   APR-SEP  103  96  129     77   107
CACHE LA POUDRE AT CANYON MOUTH(2) APR-JUL  210  93  285    134   225
                                   APR-SEP  230  92  315    145   250

 MAX (10%)...30%...50%...70% AND MIN (90%) CHANCE THAT ACTUAL
 VOLUME WILL EXCEED FORECAST.
 AVERAGES ARE FOR THE 1981-2010 PERIOD.
 ALL VOLUMES ARE IN THOUSANDS OF ACRE-FEET.

 FOOTNOTES:
 1) MAX AND MIN ARE 5% AND 95% CHANCE THAT ACTUAL VOLUME WILL
    EXCEED FORECAST
 2) STREAMFLOW IS ADJUSTED FOR UPSTREAM STORAGE
 3) MEDIAN VALUE USED IN PLACE OF AVERAGE



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