Extended Streamflow Prediction
Issued by NWS

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FGUS65 KSTR 051638
ESPNM
TTAA00 KSLR DDHHMM
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SALT LAKE CITY UT
FEB 5, 2015

WATER SUPPLY INFORMATION FOR
    SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN


PRECIPITATION (% OF AVERAGE) AND SNOWPACK (% OF MEDIAN):

SUBBASIN                 JAN PRECIP     OCT-JAN PREC    FEB 1 SNOWPACK
----------------------   ----------     ------------    ---------------
ABOVE NAVAJO RES              60             70                60
ANIMAS                        60             75                70
LOWER SAN JUAN               125             80                 -

******************************************************************************
OBSERVED STREAMFLOW SUMMARY (% OF AVERAGE):

                         JAN FLOW       OCT-JAN FLOW
----------------------   --------       ------------
BASIN AVERAGE               105%            120%

******************************************************************************
RESERVOIR STORAGE AS OF FEB 1:

RESERVOIR                % AVERAGE
---------------------    ----------
NAVAJO                       83
VALLECITO                   153
LEMON                       104

TOTAL                        87


Developed:                    Feb 1 2015

San Juan River watershed
                                  Period      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
San Juan River
  Pagosa Springs                  Apr-Jul    120    56    190     73    215
  Carracas, nr                    Apr-Jul    196    52    330    125    380
Rio Blanco River
  Pagosa Springs, nr, Blanco Dam  Apr-Jul     32    59     50   18.0     54
Navajo River
  Chromo, nr, Oso Div Dam, blo    Apr-Jul     36    55     58     22     65
Piedra River
  Arboles, nr                     Apr-Jul    130    62    200     85    210
Los Pinos River
  Vallecito Res, Bayfield, nr     Apr-Jul    145    75    210     95    194
San Juan River
  Navajo Res, Archuleta, nr       Apr-Jul    400    54    660    240    735
Florida River
  Lemon Res, Durango, nr          Apr-Jul     39    71     60     22     55
Animas River
  Durango                         Apr-Jul    315    76    425    200    415
San Juan River
  Farmington                      Apr-Jul    640    58   1050    350   1100
La Plata River
  Hesperus                        Apr-Jul   15.0    65     23    9.0     23
San Juan River
  Bluff, nr                       Apr-Jul    610    55   1000    380   1100
Mancos River
  Mancos, nr                      Apr-Jul   19.0    61     30   10.0     31

MP    Most probable volume in 1000 acre-feet.
MP%   Most probable volume in percent of the 1981-2010 average.
RMAX  Volume that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.
RMIN  Volume that has a 90 percent chance of being exceeded.
AVG   Average volume for the 1981-2010 period.

All forecast volumes reflect natural flow.  Actual observed flow may
be affected by upstream water management.

CBRFC/G.Smith



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