Extended Streamflow Prediction
Issued by NWS

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FGUS65 KSTR 031631
ESPNM
TTAA00 KSLR DDHHMM
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SALT LAKE CITY UT
JUNE 3, 2014

WATER SUPPLY INFORMATION FOR
    SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN


PRECIPITATION (% OF AVERAGE) AND SNOWPACK (% OF MEDIAN):

SUBBASIN                 May PRECIP     OCT-May PREC    JUNE 1 SNOWPACK
----------------------   ----------     ------------    ---------------
ABOVE NAVAJO RES             125             80                *
ANIMAS                       125             95                *
LOWER SAN JUAN                65             75                -

* Snowpack analysis this late in the season may not provide a
valid measure of conditions.

******************************************************************************
OBSERVED STREAMFLOW SUMMARY (% OF AVERAGE):

                         MAY FLOW       OCT-MAY FLOW
----------------------   --------       ------------
BASIN AVERAGE               70%             75%

******************************************************************************
RESERVOIR STORAGE AS OF JUNE 1:

RESERVOIR                % AVERAGE    % CAPACITY
---------------------    ----------   -----------
NAVAJO                       80           67
VALLECITO                   121           97
LEMON                       103           83

TOTAL                        83           70

San Juan River Basin

                                  Period      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
San Juan River
  Pagosa Springs                  Apr-Jul    139    65    145    134    215
  Pagosa Springs                  Jun-Jul     40    42     46     35     96
  Carracas, nr                    Apr-Jul    220    58    230    205    380
  Carracas, nr                    Jun-Jul     80    51     88     65    158
Rio Blanco River
  Pagosa Springs, nr, Blanco Dam  Apr-Jul     33    61     36     30     54
  Pagosa Springs, nr, Blanco Dam  Jun-Jul   10.0    43   13.0    7.0     23
Navajo River
  Chromo, nr, Oso Div Dam, blo    Apr-Jul     36    55     39     32     65
  Chromo, nr, Oso Div Dam, blo    Jun-Jul   16.0    53   19.0   12.0     30
Piedra River
  Arboles, nr                     Apr-Jul    143    68    152    134    210
  Arboles, nr                     Jun-Jul     45    61     54     36     74
Los Pinos River
  Vallecito Res, Bayfield, nr     Apr-Jul    169    87    188    160    194
  Vallecito Res, Bayfield, nr     Jun-Jul     81    82    100     72     99
San Juan River
  Navajo Res, Archuleta, nr       Apr-Jul    455    62    495    430    735
  Navajo Res, Archuleta, nr       Jun-Jul    156    54    196    131    290
Florida River
  Lemon Res, Durango, nr          Apr-Jul     42    76     47     36     55
  Lemon Res, Durango, nr          Jun-Jul   18.0    67     23   12.0     27
Animas River
  Durango                         Apr-Jul    365    88    405    345    415
  Durango                         Jun-Jul    193    88    235    173    220
San Juan River
  Farmington                      Apr-Jul    760    69    795    720   1100
  Farmington                      Jun-Jul    300    64    335    260    470
La Plata River
  Hesperus                        Apr-Jul   11.4    50   12.2   10.9     23
  Hesperus                        Jun-Jul    4.0    47    4.8    3.5    8.5
San Juan River
  Bluff, nr                       Apr-Jul    695    63    735    650   1100
  Bluff, nr                       Jun-Jul    285    63    325    240    450
Mancos River
  Mancos, nr                      Apr-Jul   14.1    45   15.6   13.4     31
  Mancos, nr                      Jun-Jul    5.5    53    7.0    4.8   10.4

MP    Most probable volume in 1000 acre-feet.
MP%   Most probable volume in percent of the 1981-2010 average.
RMAX  Volume that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.
RMIN  Volume that has a 90 percent chance of being exceeded.
AVG   Average volume for the 1981-2010 period.

All forecast volumes reflect natural flow.  Actual observed flow may
be affected by upstream water management.

CBRFC/G.Smith

NNNN
$$



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