Extended Streamflow Prediction
Issued by NWS

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FGUS65 KSTR 102007
ESPNM
TTAA00 KSLR DDHHMM
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SALT LAKE CITY UT
Feb 9, 2016

WATER SUPPLY INFORMATION FOR
    SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN


PRECIPITATION (% OF AVERAGE) AND SNOWPACK (% OF MEDIAN):

SUBBASIN                 JAN PRECIP     OCT-JAN PREC    FEB 1 SNOWPACK
----------------------   ----------     ------------    ---------------
ABOVE NAVAJO RES              85            115               110
ANIMAS                       100            125               115
LOWER SAN JUAN               185            175                 -

******************************************************************************
OBSERVED STREAMFLOW SUMMARY (% OF AVERAGE):

                         JAN FLOW       OCT-JAN FLOW
----------------------   --------       ------------
BASIN AVERAGE               100%            100%

******************************************************************************
RESERVOIR STORAGE AS OF JAN 1:

RESERVOIR                % AVERAGE
---------------------    ----------
NAVAJO                      107
VALLECITO                   134
LEMON                       101

TOTAL                       108


San Juan River Basin
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
San Juan River
  Pagosa Springs           Apr-Jul    235   109    320    265    210    170    215
  Carracas, nr             Apr-Jul    390   103    550    450    335    280    380
Rio Blanco River
  Pagosa Springs, nr, Bla  Apr-Jul     58   107     80     69     49     42     54
Navajo River
  Chromo, nr, Oso Div Dam  Apr-Jul     68   105     94     79     57     48     65
Piedra River
  Arboles, nr              Apr-Jul    230   110    320    265    185    160    210
Los Pinos River
  Vallecito Res, Bayfield  Apr-Jul    205   106    270    235    188    150    194
San Juan River
  Navajo Res, Archuleta,   Apr-Jul    735   100   1080    890    600    500    735
Florida River
  Lemon Res, Durango, nr   Apr-Jul     55   100     75     64     47     36     55
Animas River
  Durango                  Apr-Jul    425   102    545    480    380    310    415
San Juan River
  Farmington               Apr-Jul   1120   102   1640   1330    990    770   1100
La Plata River
  Hesperus                 Apr-Jul     23   100     35     29   19.0   16.0     23
San Juan River
  Bluff, nr                Apr-Jul   1100   100   1570   1270    945    720   1100
Mancos River
  Mancos, nr               Apr-Jul     36   116     52     43     30     24     31

50% Most probable volume in 1000 acre-feet.
%AVG  Most probable volume in percent of the 1981-2010 average.
10% Volume that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.
30% Volume that has a 30 percent chance of being exceeded.
90% Volume that has a 90 percent chance of being exceeded.
70% Volume that has a 70 percent chance of being exceeded.
AVG   Average volume for the 1981-2010 period.

All forecast volumes reflect natural flow. Actual observed flow may
be affected by upstream water management.

CBRFC/G.Smith





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