Extended Streamflow Prediction
Issued by NWS

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015
FGUS65 KSTR 051433
ESPUT

COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SALT LAKE CITY UT
APR 5, 2016

            INTERNAL NWS PRODUCT FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY

                     WATER SUPPLY INFORMATION FOR
                                 UTAH

                                 AS OF
                             APR 1, 2016


PRECIPITATION AND SNOWPACK (% OF AVERAGE, ROUNDED):

SUBBASIN                 MAR PRECIP     OCT-MAR PREC     APR 1 SNOWPACK
----------------------   ----------     ------------     -------------
BEAR                        155             100               100
WEBER                       110              95               100
SIX CREEKS (SLC)             95              85                95
PROVO                        85              85                90
SEVIER                       70             105               100
VIRGIN                       65             100               100
DUCHESNE                    110              90                85
PRICE/SAN RAFAEL             75              85                85



STREAMFLOW VOLUME FORECASTS:
Developed:                    Apr 1 2016

Great Salt Lake Basin
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
Bear River
  Utah-Wyoming State Line  Apr-Jul     94    84    114    101     85     78    112
  Woodruff Narrows Rsvr,   Apr-Jul     83    69    117     92     75     65    121
  Montpelier, nr, Stewart  Apr-Jul     87    48    127    104     76     69    182
Smiths Fork River
  Border, nr               Apr-Jul     79    89     92     85     70     64     89
Logan River
  Logan, nr, State Dam, a  Apr-Jul     97    87    116    106     87     85    111
Blacksmith Fork River
  Hyrum, nr, Upnl Dam, ab  Apr-Jul     36    84     51     44     34     30     43
Little Bear River
  Paradise                 Apr-Jul     33    70     44     41     30     25     47
Weber River
  Oakley, nr               Apr-Jul     89    75    119    105     84     79    118
  Rockport Res, Wanship,   Apr-Jul     88    67    127    108     81     75    132
  Coalville, nr            Apr-Jul     85    63    126    105     77     71    134
  Echo Res, Echo, at       Apr-Jul    104    61    171    133     96     88    171
  Gateway                  Apr-Jul    181    56    285    235    168    150    325
Chalk Ck
  Coalville                Apr-Jul     25    61     47     37   22.0   19.1     41
Weber River
  Coalville, nr            Apr-Jul     85    63    126    105     77     71    134
Lost Ck
  Lost Ck Res, Croydon, n  Apr-Jul    7.8    58   10.7    8.4    7.1    6.4   13.4
East Canyon Ck
  East Canyon Res, Morgan  Apr-Jul   15.2    56     23     17   13.6   12.4     27
SF Ogden River
  Huntsville, nr           Apr-Jul     50    89     74     60     46     40     56
Ogden River
  Pineview Res, Ogden, nr  Apr-Jul     93    82    131    111     85     75    113
Spanish Fork River
  Castilla, nr             Apr-Jul     25    36     34     27     22     21     69
Provo River
  Woodland, nr             Apr-Jul     81    81    101     88     71     67    100
  Hailstone, nr            Apr-Jul     88    80    109     95     79     73    110
  Deer Ck Res              Apr-Jul     95    75    119    103     85     75    127
American Fork River
  American Fork, nr, Up P  Apr-Jul   17.1    55     22     20   15.0   13.5     31
  American Fork, nr, Up P  Apr-Jul   17.1    55     22     20   15.0   13.5     31
Jordan River
  Utah Lake, Provo, nr     Apr-Jul    173    53    215    199    158    139    325
Little Cottonwood Ck
  Salt Lake City, nr       Apr-Jul     28    74     34     31     26     24     38
Big Cottonwood Ck
  Salt Lake City, nr       Apr-Jul     22    61     30     25   21.0   18.4     36
City Ck
  Salt Lake City, nr       Apr-Jul    4.9    64    6.8    5.6    4.4    3.9    7.7
Emigration Ck
  Salt Lake City, nr       Apr-Jul   1.65    41    2.5    2.1   1.46   1.30    4.0
Red Butte Ck
  Ft Douglas, at, Salt La  Apr-Jul   0.80    42   1.29   1.02   0.65   0.50   1.90
Mill Ck
  Salt Lake City, nr       Apr-Jul    3.1    48    4.7    3.6    2.9    2.4    6.4
Dell Fk River
  Little Dell Res          Apr-Jul    3.0    55    5.0    3.6    2.8    2.3    5.5
Lambs Ck
  Lambs Ck                 Apr-Jul    2.8    53    4.9    3.5   2.60   1.77    5.3
Parleys Ck
  Salt Lake City, nr       Apr-Jul    7.4    52   12.7    9.0    6.7    5.2   14.2
S Willow Ck
  Grantsville, nr          Apr-Jul   1.92    62    2.7    2.3   1.71   1.54    3.1
West Canyon Ck
  Cedar Fort, nr           Apr-Jul   1.13    64    2.1    1.4   0.96   0.58   1.76
Salt Ck
  Nephi Powerplant Div, b  Apr-Jul    4.9    59    7.7    5.8    4.3    3.6    8.3

Sevier Basin
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
EF Sevier River
  Kingston, nr             Apr-Jul     34    97     44     39   29.0   17.2     35
Clear Ck
  Sevier, nr, Diversions,  Apr-Jul   15.8    75     21     17   13.6   10.5     21
Salina Ck
  Emery, nr                Apr-Jul    6.6    84   10.0    7.6    5.3    2.7    7.9
Sevier River
  Gunnison, nr             Apr-Jul     62    63     99     74     50     28     99
Beaver River
  Beaver, nr               Apr-Jul   19.7    76     28     22   16.6   12.9     26
Coal Ck
  Cedar City, nr           Apr-Jul   17.3    89     22     18   13.9   11.9   19.4

Eastern Utah - Green River Basin
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
Blacks Fork River
  Robertson, nr            Apr-Jul     70    79     97     81     65     57     89
Green River
  Flaming Gorge Res, Flam  Apr-Jul    740    76   1150    870    590    520    980
White River
  Watson, nr               Apr-Jul    245    88    320    265    225    205    280
Big Brush Ck
  Vernal, nr, Red Fleet R  Apr-Jul   16.5    79     25     18   13.9   11.6     21
Ashley Ck
  Vernal, nr               Apr-Jul     38    76     61     42     31     25     50
Whiterocks River
  Whiterocks, nr           Apr-Jul     39    72     62     44     35     28     54
Uinta River
  Neola, nr                Apr-Jul     55    74     76     60     48     35     74
Yellowstone River
  Altonah, nr              Apr-Jul     48    79     61     51     44     34     61
Lake Fork River
  Moon Lake Res, Mtn Home  Apr-Jul     50    76     63     57     45     36     66
Rock Ck
  Upper Stillwater Res     Apr-Jul     60    81     80     68     56     48     74
South Fork Rock Ck
  Docs Div, blo            Apr-Jul    5.2    71    7.0    5.6    4.9    3.8    7.3
Rock Ck
  Mountain Home, nr        Apr-Jul     71    81     94     79     66     57     88
West Fork Duchesne River
  Vat Diversion, blo       Apr-Jul   10.0    54   14.9   11.9    9.0    7.3   18.6
Duchesne River
  Tabiona, nr              Apr-Jul     71    66     89     76     64     57    108
  Duchesne, nr, Knight Di  Apr-Jul    140    72    181    154    130    115    194
Currant Ck
  Currant Ck Res           Apr-Jul   10.5    52   14.1   11.4    8.5    7.3     20
Strawberry River
  Solider Springs,nr - St  Apr-Jul     26    37     39     30   22.0   18.0     71
  Starvation Res, Duchesn  Apr-Jul     51    46     70     57     45     38    112
Duchesne River
  Myton                    Apr-Jul    187    57    265    210    163    125    330
  Randlett, nr             Apr-Jul    210    55    300    235    183    140    385
Fish Ck
  Scofield, nr, Reservoir  Apr-Jul   18.0    60     24     21   15.1   12.5     30
Price River
  Scofield Res, Scofield,  Apr-Jul     23    56     31     27   19.2   15.9     41
White River
  Blo Tabbyune Ck, Soldie  Apr-Jul    9.5    61   13.0   11.4    7.7    4.7   15.5
Green River
  Green River, Ut          Apr-Jul   2250    76   3200   2770   2030   1730   2960
Huntington Ck
  Electric Lake            Apr-Jul    6.0    45    9.9    7.2    5.2    4.6   13.3
  Power Plant, blo -Hunti  Apr-Jul     22    55     32     25   20.0   18.7     40
Seeley Ck
  Joes Vly Res, Orangevil  Apr-Jul     34    61     46     37     31     25     56
Ferron Ck
  Ferron, nr               Apr-Jul     26    68     35     29   23.0   18.3     38
Muddy Ck
  Emery, nr                Apr-Jul   13.0    65   18.7   14.1   11.8    9.4   19.9

Upper Colorado Basin - UC and Dolores
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
Dolores River
  Cisco, nr                Apr-Jul    470    83    610    535    405    360    565
Colorado River
  Cisco, nr                Apr-Jul   3700    83   5170   4020   3400   2900   4440
  Lake Powell, Glen Cyn D  Apr-Jul   5300    74   7650   6160   4750   3850   7160

San Juan Basin
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
San Juan River
  Bluff, nr                Apr-Jul    790    72   1140    900    640    590   1100

lower colorado basin - virgin
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
Santa Clara River
  Pine Valley, nr          Apr-Jul    3.8    76    5.5    4.2   2.70   1.50    5.0
Virgin River
  Virgin                   Apr-Jul     49    84     62     52     43     35     58
  Hurricane, nr            Apr-Jul     47    75     61     51     38     27     63
  Littlefield              Apr-Jul     42    65     60     48     34     23     65

50% Most probable volume in 1000 acre-feet.
%AVG  Most probable volume in percent of the 1981-2010 average.
10% Volume that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.
30% Volume that has a 30 percent chance of being exceeded.
90% Volume that has a 90 percent chance of being exceeded.
70% Volume that has a 70 percent chance of being exceeded.
AVG   Average volume for the 1981-2010 period.

All forecast volumes reflect natural flow.  Actual observed flow may
be affected by upstream water management.

CBRFC/Miller/Bernard/Nielson/Cox



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