Flash Flood Guidance
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000
AWUS01 KWNH 250129
FFGMPD
OKZ000-KSZ000-250727-

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0234
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
928 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL KS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 250127Z - 250727Z

SUMMARY...STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY MAY
PRODUCE INTENSE RAINFALL RATES...PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
ACCUMULATIONS.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG AN AXIS OF
STRONGER LOW LEVEL INFLOW INTO AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS SOUTHERN KS.   LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES PWS HAVE
RISEN STEADILY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...INCREASING TO OVER 1.4
INCHES WHERE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL KS.  MUCAPE
VALUES HAVE INCREASED AS WELL...RISING TO ABOVE 3000 J/KG ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL KS.  THE 23Z RAP SHOWS PERSISTENT 30-40 KT 850MB
INFLOW INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...SUPPORTING INCREASING PWS TO
OVER 1.75 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS...WHILE MUCAPE
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 2000 J/KG.
MEANWHILE...DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ARE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE LARGER SCALE LIFT.  WHILE
UPWIND PROPAGATION VECTORS SUGGEST INDIVIDUAL CELLS WILL TRACK
STEADILY TO THE EAST...A BRIEF PERIOD OF TRAINING ALONG MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES AND THE INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AFFORDED BY BOTH THE
DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
ACCUMULATIONS.

THE LATEST RUNS OF THE OPERATIONAL AND PARALLEL HRRR...AS WELL AS
THE HRW-ARW...SHOW WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA THROUGH 07Z.  HEAVIER
ACCUMULATIONS MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS AREAS RECENTLY IMPACTED BY HEAVY RAINS.

PEREIRA

...PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...ICT...OUN...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   39839654 37649645 36909681 36929785 36879971
            37739988 38589924 39649813


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