Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 221945
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
345 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

...Critical relative humidity values recover tonight...

Near critical to below critical RH values this afternoon across
many interior locations will make a decent recovery tonight as
temperatures cool back into the 30s along with a slight uptick in
near-surface moisture for Sunday as a weak cold front drapes
across northern Michigan. Humidity levels are not expected to be
as low on Sunday as they are Saturday afternoon...with the lowest
readings expected south of M-32/east of I-75.

Quite the change in wind direction over the next couple of days, as
well. Tonight`s light southwesterly winds shift more west-
northwesterly and pick up just a bit on Sunday...only to be replaced
with southeasterly winds on Monday.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-230815-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
345 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........73-78 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......18 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-59...EXCEPT 39-44 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........41-46 PERCENT...EXCEPT 57-62 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......20 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (380).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
                    AROUND 9 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....31-36.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........83-88 PERCENT...EXCEPT 70-75 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 3 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (50).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65...EXCEPT 42-47 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........47-52 PERCENT...EXCEPT 58-63 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (660).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-230815-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
345 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........73-78 PERCENT...EXCEPT 60-65 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66...EXCEPT 43-48 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 5 DEGREES COOLER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT...EXCEPT 53-58 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 13 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (880).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....32-37.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64...EXCEPT 42-47 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 1 DEGREE COOLER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT...EXCEPT 65-70 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......24 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 11 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
                    TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (300).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-230815-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
345 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42...EXCEPT 44-49 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........71-76 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......30 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 19 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-60...EXCEPT 37-42 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........39-44 PERCENT...EXCEPT 62-67 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......18 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (520).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....33-38.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........80-85 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67...EXCEPT 42-47 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........39-44 PERCENT...EXCEPT 65-70 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (800).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ031>033-230815-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
345 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........70-75 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......18 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64...EXCEPT 47-52 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........33-38 PERCENT...EXCEPT 46-51 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 9 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (860).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-39.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........85-90 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68...EXCEPT AROUND 60 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 9 DEGREES WARMER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........39-44 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (820).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-230815-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
345 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........74-79 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......20 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 3 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........31-36 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1210).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....32-37.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........81-86 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........42-47 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (760).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...COOLER. MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS AROUND
10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

MG



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