Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 221039
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
639 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS...

.DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND ITS WARM FRONT ARE TRIGGERING SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, BUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER CAN`T BE RULED OUT FOR SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.



MIZ016-017-019-021>023-222015-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
639 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    1100. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1100. SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1500.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81...EXCEPT 67-72 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........62-67 PERCENT...EXCEPT 76-81 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (230).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 2200. AREAS OF FOG AFTER
                    0100.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 0800...THEN PATCHY FOG UNTIL 1000.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85...EXCEPT 70-75 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........54-59 PERCENT...EXCEPT 68-73 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (430).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-222015-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
639 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    1100. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1100.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79...EXCEPT AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........62-67 PERCENT...EXCEPT 76-81 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (170).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    AFTER 0100.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 0800...THEN PATCHY FOG UNTIL 1000.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83...EXCEPT 67-72 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........59-64 PERCENT...EXCEPT 73-78 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (380).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-222015-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
639 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    1100. ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER 0800 UNTIL
                    1100...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 1500.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81...EXCEPT AROUND 71 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........65-70 PERCENT...EXCEPT 76-81 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 13 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (170).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 2200. AREAS OF FOG AFTER 0100.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 0800...THEN PATCHY FOG UNTIL 1000.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....83-88...EXCEPT 71-76 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT...EXCEPT 66-71 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (380).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ031>033-222015-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
639 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    1100. ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER 0800 UNTIL
                    1100...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 1500.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........67-72 PERCENT...EXCEPT 79-84 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 16 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (230).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2200. AREAS OF
                    FOG AFTER 0100.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 0800...THEN PATCHY FOG UNTIL 1000.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....83-88...EXCEPT AROUND 80 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT...EXCEPT 67-72 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (380).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-222015-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
639 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    1100. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1100. SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1500.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........63-68 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (190).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 2200. AREAS OF FOG AFTER
                    0100.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 0800...THEN PATCHY FOG UNTIL 1000.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (460).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS AROUND 80. EAST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS AROUND 80. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.

$$

TL





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