Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 271929
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
329 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

...WARM WEATHER CONTINUES...NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
SEASONABLY WARM AND RAIN-FREE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. DESPITE THE
WARMTH...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON RH VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...LIKELY DRAGGING A
DECAYING BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHT AT THIS TIME. RAIN-FREE AND COOLER WEATHER RETURNS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST BY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
VEER WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-280815-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
329 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....61-66.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT...EXCEPT 79-84 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....89-94...EXCEPT 78-83 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........37-42 PERCENT...EXCEPT 54-59 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (390).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....67-72.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........81-86 PERCENT...EXCEPT 71-76 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....81-86...EXCEPT 74-79 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT...EXCEPT 64-69 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1000).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.19-0.26 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-280815-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
329 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....61-66.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....88-93...EXCEPT 77-82 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........36-41 PERCENT...EXCEPT 58-63 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (390).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT...EXCEPT 73-78 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....83-88...EXCEPT AROUND 81 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT...EXCEPT 64-69 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 9 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (820).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 9 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 21 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.14-0.24 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-280815-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
329 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65...EXCEPT 67-72 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 1 DEGREE WARMER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 76-81 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AROUND
                    3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....88-93...EXCEPT 74-79 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT...EXCEPT 60-65 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (460).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....67-72.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........82-87 PERCENT...EXCEPT 71-76 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 9 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84...EXCEPT 71-76 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT...EXCEPT 66-71 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 8 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1150).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.14-0.21 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-280815-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
329 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
                    AROUND 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....87-92...EXCEPT 79-84 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........37-42 PERCENT...EXCEPT 51-56 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (620).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....66-71.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT...EXCEPT 64-69 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1060).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.14-0.22 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-280815-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
329 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....89-94.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (510).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....63-68.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....81-86.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (950).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 9 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 21 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.14-0.23 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

MSB



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