Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 261906
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
306 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016

...REMAINING WARM WITH SMALL SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES...

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF TO
THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST TOMORROW...BRINGING A
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT. HOWEVER...PRIOR TO
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WARM AND TEMPERATURES AND SOMEWHAT
HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ARE EXPECTED TO THEN SHIFT MORE NORTHWESTERLY POST COLD FRONT.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-270815-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
306 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2000 UNTIL 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....64-69.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........83-88 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1400...THEN
                    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....81-86...EXCEPT 70-75 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT...EXCEPT 69-74 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (880).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT UNCHANGED ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80...EXCEPT 68-73 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........48-53 PERCENT...EXCEPT 60-65 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 10 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (430).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-270815-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
306 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....64-69.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........82-87 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800. SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....83-88...EXCEPT 72-77 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........48-53 PERCENT...EXCEPT 64-69 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1080).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.16 IN.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT...EXCEPT 79-84 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82...EXCEPT 68-73 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........47-52 PERCENT...EXCEPT 62-67 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (560).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-270815-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
306 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 5 DEGREES WARMER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........84-89 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 3 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....81-86...EXCEPT 69-74 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........49-54 PERCENT...EXCEPT 76-81 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 12 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (620).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 79-84 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT UNCHANGED ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 3 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800...THEN CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79...EXCEPT 67-72 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT...EXCEPT 68-73 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (480).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-270815-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
306 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....64-69.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........85-90 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....81-86...EXCEPT 73-78 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT...EXCEPT 69-74 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......18 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (940).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 10 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 3 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT...EXCEPT 60-65 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (480).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.12 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-270815-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
306 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........80-85 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....83-88.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........47-52 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......18 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1260).
MIXING HEIGHT.......9800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.15 IN.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 3 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (520).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS AROUND
80. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

MG



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