Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS53 KAPX 290805
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
405 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...GUSTY WINDS WITH RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPING...

.DISCUSSION...A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH AT TIMES...
REMAINING GUSTY WHILE VEERING WEST TONIGHT. A BAND OF
SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN...WILL RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING TONIGHT.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP BELOW 40 PERCENT FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST LOWER BY LATE MORNING BEFORE INCREASING AS PRECIPITATION
BEGINS. THE COMBINATION OF LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FOR A
TIME TODAY COMBINED WITH INCREASING WINDS WILL RESULT IN SNEAKY
POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-292115-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
405 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY
                    AFTER 1400 UNTIL 1700. SNOW AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....38-43.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........43-48 PERCENT...EXCEPT 66-71 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (850).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 18 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTH
                    AROUND 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.16 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SNOW UNTIL 0500. RAIN
                    AFTER 2000 UNTIL 2400. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
                    AFTER 0500.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....27-32.
   24 HR TREND......17 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (350).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 27 TO 30 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.08-0.24 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SCATTERED SNOW
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....37-42.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT...EXCEPT 67-72 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 3 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1470).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-292115-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
405 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    AND SNOW AFTER 1400 UNTIL 1700...THEN SNOW AND
                    RAIN.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....38-43.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........39-44 PERCENT...EXCEPT 59-64 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1340).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 33
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.11 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN AND SNOW UNTIL
                    2400...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0500...THEN
                    CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....29-34.
   24 HR TREND......20 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (440).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 30 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.16 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SNOW
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0800...THEN OCCASIONAL FLURRIES
                    UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....40-45...EXCEPT 32-37 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........48-53 PERCENT...EXCEPT 61-66 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 13 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2340).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 33 TO 36 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-292115-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
405 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    AND SNOW AFTER 1200 UNTIL 1400...THEN SNOW.
                    RAIN AFTER 1700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....37-42.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........49-54 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND
                    20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (980).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 18 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 36 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.10-0.20 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN UNTIL 2400. SNOW
                    UNTIL 0500...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....29-34.
   24 HR TREND......20 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 11 DEGREES WARMER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT...EXCEPT 77-82 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (170).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 21 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.10-0.24 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SCATTERED SNOW
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....38-43...EXCEPT 31-36 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT...EXCEPT 69-74 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 2 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1150).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-292115-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
405 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    AND SNOW AFTER 1200 UNTIL 1400...THEN SNOW.
                    RAIN AFTER 1700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....38-43.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 10 DEGREES WARMER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........47-52 PERCENT...EXCEPT 66-71 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1020).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 18 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 36 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.09-0.19 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN AND SNOW UNTIL
                    2400...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0500...THEN
                    CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....29-34.
   24 HR TREND......20 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 12 DEGREES WARMER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT...EXCEPT 77-82 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 3 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (200).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 21 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.10-0.18 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SNOW
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0800...THEN OCCASIONAL FLURRIES
                    UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT...EXCEPT 64-69 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 4 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1200).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-292115-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
405 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SNOW AND RAIN
                    LIKELY AFTER 1400 UNTIL 1700...THEN SNOW.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....39-44.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........37-42 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1170).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 18 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 33
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.15 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN AND SNOW UNTIL
                    2400...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....28-33.
   24 HR TREND......22 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (410).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 27 TO 30 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.07-0.23 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SNOW
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0800. OCCASIONAL FLURRIES AFTER
                    0800 UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....42-47.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2290).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 30 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SNOW LIKELY AND CHANCE OF RAIN.
LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS AROUND 40. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH.

$$
JK



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