Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 210902
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
502 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS GRADUALLY END THIS AFTERNOON...

.DISCUSSION...
WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RAIN WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE DAY...AND PRECIPITATION-FREE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20 MPH AT TIMES TODAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY SHIFTING OUT OF THE
WEST. MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-212015-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
502 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1100...THEN SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1600.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....53-58.
   24 HR TREND......16 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........72-77 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 9 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH INCREASING TO 5 TO 15
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (970).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 15 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.02-0.16 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST
                    AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41...EXCEPT 46-51 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30
                    MPH DECREASING TO 20 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (300).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST
                    UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT...EXCEPT 62-67 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......22 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 17 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (790).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-212015-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
502 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1400...THEN SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-61...EXCEPT 49-54 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......15 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........72-77 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH INCREASING TO 5 TO 15
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1010).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 15 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.25 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42...EXCEPT 44-49 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT...EXCEPT 77-82 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 14 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (780).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 24 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT...EXCEPT 55-60 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......27 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (840).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-212015-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
502 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1100...THEN SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1600.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....53-58.
   24 HR TREND......15 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........71-76 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH INCREASING TO 10 TO 15
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1000).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 15 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 27 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.09-0.21 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43...EXCEPT 46-51 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT...EXCEPT 77-82 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT DRIER ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35
                    MPH DECREASING TO UP TO 5 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 25 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (490).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 21 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........49-54 PERCENT...EXCEPT 58-63 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......22 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 17 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN
                    THE MORNING.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (600).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ031>033-212015-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
502 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1100.
                    SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1400. SCATTERED
                    RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1100 UNTIL 1600.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........72-77 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH INCREASING TO 10 TO 15
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (980).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 15 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 27 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.20 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42...EXCEPT 45-50 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT...EXCEPT 77-82 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN
                    THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (580).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 21 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........49-54 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......23 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 17 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (590).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-212015-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
502 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL 0800.
                    NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1400...THEN SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
   24 HR TREND......15 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........72-77 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (860).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 12 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 24 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.16-0.24 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST
                    AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25
                    MPH IN THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (720).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST
                    UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......26 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (770).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70.
WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70.
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

MG





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