Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FNUS54 KMRX 271945
FWFMRX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for East Tennessee...Southwest
Virginia...and Extreme Southwest North Carolina
National Weather Service Morristown TN
245 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL START IN EARNEST LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE TUESDAY
MORNING AND MORE WIDESPREAD BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A ROUND OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.


VAZ001-002-005-006-008-282045-
Jefferson National Forest/Virginia District 6-
245 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

                      Tonight      Tue          Tue Night    Wed

Cloud cover           PCldy        MCldy        MCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      39-44 (+11)  63-68 (+11)  54-59        66-71
RH % (24h trend)      92-97 (+24)  55-60 (+27)  87-92        55-60
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  S 10 G28                  SW 15 G38
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     S  8 G20     S 13 G30     S  9 G25     SW 20 G45
Precip type           NONE         tstms        showers      tstms
Chance precip (%)     0            70           40           90
Precip duration                    2            1            5
Precip begin                       7 AM         Continuing   Continuing
Precip end                         Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Precip amount         0.00         0.09         0.04         0.53
LAL                   1            4            1            5
LASI                               3                         3
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 5200                      3700
Transport wnd (mph)                S 25                      SW 44
Dispersion                         67 Good                   63 Good
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  S 13 G28                  SW 18 G38
33ft wind-PM(mph)     S 10 G20     S 17 G30     S 11 G25     SW 24 G45

Remarks...None.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the
20s to upper 30s. West winds 5 to 15 mph.
.THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the 40s to lower 50s. West winds 5 to
10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s.
West winds up to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly clear. Highs in the lower 30s to mid 40s.
Southwest winds up to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Warmer. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in
the mid 40s to upper 50s. Southwest winds up to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
mid 40s. Highs in the 50s to lower 60s. Southwest winds up to
10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the 50s to lower
60s. West winds up to 10 mph.

$$

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-282045-
Northern Cherokee National Forest-
245 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

                      Tonight      Tue          Tue Night    Wed

Cloud cover           PCldy        MCldy        MCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      39-44 (+12)  62-67 (+12)  52-57        66-71
RH % (24h trend)      95-100 (+24) 53-58 (+26)  89-94        51-56
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  S 11 G28                  SW 14 G38
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     S 10 G27     S 11 G29     S  9 G25     SW 19 G43
Precip type           showers      tstms        showers      tstms
Chance precip (%)     10           50           40           90
Precip duration       1            1            1            5
Precip begin          7 PM         Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Precip amount         0.01         0.04         0.02         0.36
LAL                   1            4            1            5
LASI                               3                         4
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 5600                      4400
Transport wnd (mph)                S 24                      SW 40
Dispersion                         54 Gen good               59 Gen good
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  S 14 G28                  SW 17 G38
33ft wind-PM(mph)     S 13 G27     S 15 G29     S 11 G25     SW 24 G43

Remarks...None.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the
20s to upper 30s. Northwest winds 5 to 20 mph.
.THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 30s to mid 50s. Northwest
winds 5 to 15 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the 20s to lower 30s. West winds
up to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly clear. Highs in the 30s to 40s. Northwest winds
5 to 15 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Warmer. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in
the 40s to 50s. Southwest winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
lower 40s. Highs in the upper 40s to mid 60s. Southwest winds up
to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the lower 50s to mid
60s. West winds 5 to 15 mph.

$$

TNZ072-074-282045-
Tennessee Portion Of The Great Smoky Mountain National Park-
245 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

                      Tonight      Tue          Tue Night    Wed

Cloud cover           MCldy        MCldy        MCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      41-46 (+12)  62-67 (+12)  53-58        65-70
RH % (24h trend)      95-100 (+30) 58-63 (+31)  85-90        55-60
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  S 14 G38                  SW 19 G49
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     S 13 G35     S 16 G40     S 14 G40     SW 23 G50
Precip type           showers      tstms        showers      tstms
Chance precip (%)     20           60           40           90
Precip duration       1            2            1            3
Precip begin          7 PM         Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Precip amount         0.02         0.06         0.04         0.46
LAL                   1            4            3            5
LASI                               3                         4
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 5500                      4000
Transport wnd (mph)                S 30                      SW 38
Dispersion                         55 Gen good               33 Fair
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  S 18 G38                  SW 24 G49
33ft wind-PM(mph)     S 17 G35     S 20 G40     S 17 G40     SW 28 G50

Remarks...None.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the
mid 20s to upper 30s. Northwest winds 5 to 20 mph.
.THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the 30s to mid 50s. Northwest winds
5 to 15 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Clear, colder. Lows in the 20s to lower 30s.
West winds up to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly clear. Highs in the 30s to 40s. Northeast winds
up to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the 40s
to 50s. Southwest winds up to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the lower
40s. Highs in the upper 40s to mid 60s. Southwest winds up to
10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the upper 40s to mid
60s. West winds 5 to 15 mph.

$$

TNZ087-102-282045-
Southern Cherokee National Forest-
245 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

                      Tonight      Tue          Tue Night    Wed

Cloud cover           MCldy        MCldy        MCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      43-48 (+13)  63-68 (+11)  56-61        67-72
RH % (24h trend)      95-100 (+26) 66-71 (+43)  90-95        60-65
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  S 12 G29                  SW 14 G39
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     SE 11 G28    S 13 G29     S 10 G31     SW 18 G42
Precip type           showers      tstms        tstms        tstms
Chance precip (%)     30           60           30           80
Precip duration       1            2            1            5
Precip begin          7 PM         Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Precip amount         0.02         0.07         0.05         0.48
LAL                   1            4            3            5
LASI                               3                         3
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 4600                      3400
Transport wnd (mph)                S 25                      SW 32
Dispersion                         52 Gen good               40 Fair
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  S 15 G29                  SW 18 G39
33ft wind-PM(mph)     SE 14 G28    S 16 G29     S 12 G31     SW 22 G42

Remarks...None.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows
in the 20s to upper 30s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph.
.THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 40s to mid 50s. Northwest
winds 5 to 15 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s.
West winds less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Clear. Highs in the mid 30s to lower 50s. Northeast
winds up to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the mid
40s to upper 50s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the mid 40s.
Highs in the lower 50s to mid 60s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows around 40. Highs in the lower 50s to mid 60s.
West winds 5 to 10 mph.

$$

NCZ060-061-282045-
Nantahala National Forest-
245 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

                      Tonight      Tue          Tue Night    Wed

CLOUD COVER           MCldy        MCldy        MCldy        MCldy
TEMP (24H TREND)      40-45 (+12)  62-67 (+10)  54-59        65-70
RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+20) 70-75 (+41)  95-100       62-67
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S  9 G25                  SW 11 G33
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE  9 G22    S 10 G25     S  7 G26     SW 15 G37
PRECIP TYPE           showers      tstms        tstms        tstms
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           60           50           80
PRECIP DURATION       1            2            1            5
PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
PRECIP END            Continuing   Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.02         0.05         0.05         0.45
LAL                   1            4            4            5
LASI                               3                         3
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4600                      3200
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 21                      SW 30
DISPERSION                         39 Fair                   26 Fair
MAX LVORI                          5                         5
33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  S 11 G25                  SW 14 G33
33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE 11 G22    S 12 G25     S  9 G26     SW 20 G37

Remarks...None.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Thunderstorms likely and slight chance of
showers. Lows in the lower to mid 30s. Northwest winds 5 to
15 mph.
.THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 40s to mid 50s. Northwest
winds 5 to 15 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s.
Northwest winds less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Clear. Highs in the upper 30s to lower 50s. Northeast
winds up to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the mid
40s to upper 50s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the lower
40s. Highs in the lower 50s to mid 60s. South winds less than
10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the 50s to mid
60s. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.

$$

TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-282045-
East Tennessee District East-
245 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

                      Tonight      Tue          Tue Night    Wed

Cloud cover           PCldy        MCldy        MCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      41-46 (+13)  66-71 (+13)  55-60        69-74
RH % (24h trend)      93-98 (+18)  52-57 (+22)  84-89        53-58
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  S  8 G25                  SW 12 G35
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     SE  6 G16    S 12 G28     S  7 G16     SW 19 G43
Precip type           NONE         tstms        showers      tstms
Chance precip (%)     0            60           40           90
Precip duration                    2            1            5
Precip begin                       7 AM         Continuing   Continuing
Precip end                         Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Precip amount         0.00         0.07         0.03         0.49
LAL                   1            4            1            5
LASI                               3                         4
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 4700                      3800
Transport wnd (mph)                S 22                      SW 43
Dispersion                         59 Gen good               87 Good
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  S 11 G25                  SW 16 G35
33ft wind-PM(mph)     SE  7 G16    S 15 G28     S  9 G16     SW 24 G43

Remarks...None.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Thunderstorms likely and slight chance of
showers. Lows in the 20s to upper 30s. West winds 5 to 15 mph.
.THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 40s to mid 50s. West winds
5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the 20s to mid 30s. West winds
less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly clear. Highs in the mid 30s to upper 40s. East
winds up to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the mid
40s to upper 50s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the mid 40s.
Highs in the lower 50s to mid 60s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the mid 50s to
upper 60s. West winds up to 10 mph.

$$

TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-282045-
East Tennessee District West-
245 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

                      Tonight      Tue          Tue Night    Wed

Cloud cover           MCldy        MCldy        MCldy        Cloudy
Temp (24h trend)      43-48 (+14)  63-68 (+11)  57-62        68-73
RH % (24h trend)      95-100 (+25) 61-66 (+26)  91-96        57-62
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  S  9 G29                  SW 14 G37
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     S  6 G19     S 13 G31     S  9 G26     SW 18 G41
Precip type           showers      tstms        tstms        tstms
Chance precip (%)     20           70           40           90
Precip duration       1            2            1            5
Precip begin          7 PM         Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Precip amount         0.01         0.11         0.05         0.56
LAL                   1            4            3            5
LASI                               3                         3
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 3600                      3800
Transport wnd (mph)                S 25                      SW 39
Dispersion                         47 Gen good               88 Good
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  S 12 G29                  SW 18 G37
33ft wind-PM(mph)     S  8 G19     S 17 G31     S 12 G26     SW 23 G41

Remarks...None.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows
in the 30s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph.
.THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 40s to upper 50s. Northwest
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s. West
winds less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly clear. Highs in the upper 30s to lower 50s. East
winds less than 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the
upper 40s to lower 60s. Southwest winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the upper
40s. Highs in the 50s to mid 60s. Southwest winds less than
10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the 50s to mid
60s. West winds 5 to 10 mph.

$$

TNZ077-079>085-097>101-282045-
Cumberland District South-
245 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 /145 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017/

                      Tonight      Tue          Tue Night    Wed

Cloud cover           MCldy        MCldy        MCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      45-50 (+13)  63-68 (+13)  58-63        68-73
RH % (24h trend)      95-100 (+23) 71-76 (+30)  90-95        61-66
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  S 10 G25                  SW 14 G35
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     S  6 G16     S 12 G27     S 10 G28     SW 16 G37
Precip type           showers      tstms        tstms        tstms
Chance precip (%)     30           70           40           90
Precip duration       1            2            1            5
Precip begin          7 PM         Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Precip amount         0.02         0.11         0.05         0.43
LAL                   1            4            3            5
LASI                               3                         3
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 3000                      3500
Transport wnd (mph)                S 23                      SW 35
Dispersion                         35 Fair                   74 Good
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  S 12 G25                  SW 17 G35
33ft wind-PM(mph)     S  7 G16     S 15 G27     S 13 G28     SW 21 G37

Remarks...None.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows
in the 30s to lower 40s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph.
.THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the 40s to upper 50s. Northwest winds
5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower to mid 30s.
West winds less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Clear. Highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Northeast
winds less than 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the 50s
to lower 60s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the upper
40s. Highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. South winds less than
10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the upper 50s to
mid 60s. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.

$$



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