Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FNUS54 KMRX 210833
FWFMRX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for East Tennessee...Southwest
Virginia...and Extreme Southwest North Carolina
National Weather Service Morristown TN
333 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH WEATHER
CONDITIONS TURNING UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN LATE TODAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND ONCE AGAIN
ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE FRIDAY, BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.


VAZ001-002-005-006-008-220945-
Jefferson National Forest/Virginia District 6-
333 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2017

                      Today        Tonight      Wed

Cloud cover           PCldy        Cloudy       MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      62-67 (-5)   45-50 (0)    59-64
RH % (24h trend)      38-43 (+7)   95-100 (+15) 67-72
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     SE  7 G18                 LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     S  8 G19     SE  5        LGT/VAR
Precip type           NONE         showers      showers
Chance precip (%)     0            70           80
Precip duration                    2            3
Precip begin                       7 PM         Continuing
Precip end                         Continuing   7 PM
Precip amount         0.00         0.13         0.38
LAL                   1            1            1
LASI                  4                         3
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    4600                      2500
Transport wnd (mph)   S 16                      SE  5
Dispersion            36 Fair                   2 Very poor
33ft wind-AM(mph)     SE  9 G18                 LGT/VAR
33ft wind-PM(mph)     S 10 G19     SE  7        LGT/VAR

Remarks...None.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows near 50. South winds less
than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Highs in the 60s to lower 70s. South winds less
than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows near 50. South winds less
than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Highs in
the lower 60s to mid 70s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Cooler. Lows in the
upper 20s. Highs in the 40s to mid 50s. Northwest winds up to
10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
lower 30s. Highs in the upper 30s to lower 50s. West winds less
than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the lower
40s. Highs in the 40s to mid 50s. South winds up to 10 mph.

$$

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-220945-
Northern Cherokee National Forest-
333 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2017

                      Today        Tonight      Wed

Cloud cover           PCldy        Cloudy       MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      59-64 (-6)   44-49 (-2)   57-62
RH % (24h trend)      43-48 (+8)   95-100 (+16) 68-73
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     SE 10 G25                 SE  5 G21
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     S  9 G23     SE  8 G20    LGT/VAR
Precip type           showers      showers      showers
Chance precip (%)     20           80           80
Precip duration       1            2            3
Precip begin          4 PM         Continuing   Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   Continuing   7 PM
Precip amount         0.01         0.18         0.28
LAL                   1            1            1
LASI                  4                         3
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    5000                      3300
Transport wnd (mph)   S 21                      S  8
Dispersion            40 Fair                   4 Very poor
33ft wind-AM(mph)     SE 13 G25                 SE  6 G21
33ft wind-PM(mph)     S 12 G23     SE 10 G20    LGT/VAR

Remarks...None.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s to lower
50s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 50s to lower 70s. South winds
less than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows
in the mid 40s to lower 50s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Highs in
the upper 50s to mid 70s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Cooler. Lows in the
upper 20s. Highs in the 40s to upper 50s. Northwest winds 5 to
15 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the
upper 30s to lower 50s. West winds up to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the upper
30s. Highs in the mid 40s to upper 50s. South winds up to 10 mph.

$$

TNZ072-074-220945-
Tennessee Portion Of The Great Smoky Mountain National Park-
333 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2017

                      Today        Tonight      Wed

Cloud cover           MCldy        Cloudy       MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      59-64 (-5)   46-51 (+2)   58-63
RH % (24h trend)      40-45 (+2)   95-100 (+23) 66-71
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     S 11 G26                  LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     S 10 G26     SE  8 G23    LGT/VAR
Precip type           showers      showers      showers
Chance precip (%)     20           80           70
Precip duration       1            5            2
Precip begin          1 PM         Continuing   Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   Continuing   7 PM
Precip amount         0.02         0.24         0.14
LAL                   1            1            1
LASI                  4                         3
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    5300                      3900
Transport wnd (mph)   S 21                      S  8
Dispersion            36 Fair                   6 Very poor
33ft wind-AM(mph)     S 13 G26                  S  5 G19
33ft wind-PM(mph)     S 12 G26     SE 11 G23    LGT/VAR

Remarks...None.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 40s to lower 50s.
South winds up to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 50s to lower 70s. South winds up
to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows
in the 40s to mid 50s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the 50s to
mid 70s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Cooler. Lows in the
upper 20s. Highs in the lower 40s to mid 50s. Northwest winds up
to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the 30s to
mid 50s. West winds up to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the lower
40s. Highs in the 40s to lower 60s. Southwest winds up to 10 mph.

$$

TNZ087-102-220945-
Southern Cherokee National Forest-
333 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2017

                      Today        Tonight      Wed

Cloud cover           MCldy        Cloudy       MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      62-67 (-6)   49-54 (+4)   62-67
RH % (24h trend)      52-57 (+11)  95-100 (+17) 64-69
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     SE 11 G28                 LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     SE 11 G29    SE  8 G20    LGT/VAR
Precip type           showers      showers      showers
Chance precip (%)     60           80           70
Precip duration       1            5            2
Precip begin          1 PM         Continuing   Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   Continuing   7 PM
Precip amount         0.04         0.25         0.10
LAL                   1            1            1
LASI                  4                         3
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    4800                      3100
Transport wnd (mph)   SE 24                     SE 10
Dispersion            56 Gen good               9 Poor
33ft wind-AM(mph)     SE 13 G28                 SE  5
33ft wind-PM(mph)     SE 14 G29    SE 10 G20    LGT/VAR

Remarks...None.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s to lower
50s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 50s to lower 70s. South winds
up to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s to mid
50s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the upper
50s to mid 70s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Cooler. Lows
around 30. Highs in the 40s to mid 50s. Northwest winds up to
10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the lower
40s to mid 50s. Southwest winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
mid 40s. Highs in the upper 40s to lower 60s. South winds up to
10 mph.

$$

NCZ060-061-220945-
Nantahala National Forest-
333 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2017

                      Today        Tonight      Wed

CLOUD COVER           MCldy        Cloudy       MCldy
TEMP (24H TREND)      60-65 (-8)   47-52 (+9)   62-67
RH % (24H TREND)      55-60 (+14)  95-100 (+12) 65-70
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SE  9 G24                 LGT/VAR
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE 10 G25    SE  8 G18    LGT/VAR
PRECIP TYPE           showers      showers      showers
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     60           80           70
PRECIP DURATION       1            5            2
PRECIP BEGIN          1 PM         Continuing   Continuing
PRECIP END            Continuing   Continuing   7 PM
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.03         0.31         0.09
LAL                   1            1            1
LASI                  4                         3
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5300                      3300
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SE 22                     SE  8
DISPERSION            56 Gen good               7 Poor
MAX LVORI             4                         8
33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SE 12 G24                 SE  5
33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE 13 G25    SE 10 G18    LGT/VAR

Remarks...None.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 40s to mid 50s.
Southeast winds less than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Highs in the 60s to lower 70s. South winds up to
10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows
near 50. Southeast winds less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the upper
50s to mid 70s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Cooler. Lows
in the upper 20s. Highs in the 40s to mid 50s. Northwest winds up
to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the lower
40s to mid 50s. West winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
lower 40s. Highs in the upper 40s to lower 60s. South winds less
than 10 mph.

$$

TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-220945-
East Tennessee District East-
333 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2017

                      Today        Tonight      Wed

Cloud cover           PCldy        Cloudy       MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      64-69 (-4)   47-52 (+1)   61-66
RH % (24h trend)      43-48 (+7)   95-100 (+13) 66-71
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     SE  6 G18                 LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     SE  7 G19    SE  5        LGT/VAR
Precip type           NONE         showers      showers
Chance precip (%)     0            70           80
Precip duration                    3            3
Precip begin                       Continuing   Continuing
Precip end                         Continuing   7 PM
Precip amount         0.00         0.16         0.29
LAL                   1            1            1
LASI                  4                         3
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    4000                      2400
Transport wnd (mph)   S 15                      SE  5
Dispersion            32 Fair                   4 Very poor
33ft wind-AM(mph)     SE  7 G18                 LGT/VAR
33ft wind-PM(mph)     SE  9 G19    SE  7        LGT/VAR

Remarks...None.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s to lower
50s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Highs in the 60s to lower 70s. South winds less
than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s to mid
50s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Highs in
the 60s to 70s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Cooler. Lows around
30. Highs in the 40s to upper 50s. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
mid 30s. Highs in the 40s to lower 50s. Southwest winds less than
10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the lower
40s. Highs in the upper 40s to lower 60s. South winds less than
10 mph.

$$

TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-220945-
East Tennessee District West-
333 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2017

                      Today        Tonight      Wed

Cloud cover           MCldy        Cloudy       MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      64-69 (-5)   49-54 (+6)   62-67
RH % (24h trend)      49-54 (+10)  95-100 (+13) 67-72
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     SE  5 G19                 LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     SE  7 G20    LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR
Precip type           showers      showers      showers
Chance precip (%)     30           70           60
Precip duration       1            3            2
Precip begin          1 PM         Continuing   Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   Continuing   7 PM
Precip amount         0.03         0.17         0.16
LAL                   1            1            1
LASI                  3                         3
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    3800                      2600
Transport wnd (mph)   S 16                      SE  6
Dispersion            37 Fair                   7 Poor
33ft wind-AM(mph)     SE  7 G19                 LGT/VAR
33ft wind-PM(mph)     SE  9 G20    SE  5        LGT/VAR

Remarks...None.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s to mid
50s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Southwest winds
less than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower to mid 50s.
South winds less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the 60s to
mid 70s. Southwest winds up to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Cooler. Lows
in the lower 30s. Highs in the mid 40s to upper 50s. Northwest
winds up to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
mid 30s. Highs in the 40s to mid 50s. Southwest winds less than
10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the mid 40s.
Highs in the 50s to lower 60s. South winds up to 10 mph.

$$

TNZ077-079>085-097>101-220945-
Cumberland District South-
333 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2017 /233 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017/

                      Today        Tonight      Wed

Cloud cover           MCldy        Cloudy       MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      63-68 (-7)   51-56 (+4)   65-70
RH % (24h trend)      54-59 (+11)  95-100 (+14) 65-70
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     SE  8 G23                 LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     SE  9 G25    SE  5 G15    LGT/VAR
Precip type           showers      showers      showers
Chance precip (%)     70           70           50
Precip duration       1            3            1
Precip begin          11 AM        Continuing   Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   Continuing   7 PM
Precip amount         0.06         0.19         0.08
LAL                   1            1            1
LASI                  3                         3
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    3200                      2800
Transport wnd (mph)   S 24                      SE  9
Dispersion            42 Gen good               12 Poor
33ft wind-AM(mph)     SE 11 G23                 LGT/VAR
33ft wind-PM(mph)     SE 12 G25    SE  6 G15    LGT/VAR

Remarks...None.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower to mid 50s.
South winds less than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. South winds up
to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. South winds
up to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the upper
60s to mid 70s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Cooler. Lows
in the lower 30s. Highs in the 40s to upper 50s. Northwest winds
up to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the 40s
to upper 50s. Southwest winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
upper 40s. Highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. South winds up to
10 mph.

$$



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