Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FNUS73 KABR 261442
FWSABR

SPOT FORECAST FOR WAR CREEK FIRE...USDA FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
942 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1000 MDT ON JULY 26.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN ABERDEEN SD.

.DISCUSSION...

OFF AND ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AND SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE OVERHEAD.

AFTER ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY...HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...ON NORTHEAST WINDS. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE SINKING IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SHOULD BRING MAINLY
DRY WEATHER TO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT CLOUD). A SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN
                    THE MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN A
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....93-98.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 12 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    EAST AROUND 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................56 PERCENT.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 1200...THEN 1 UNTIL 1300...THEN 3 UNTIL
                    1800...THEN 4.
HAINES INDEX........5 (MODERATE).
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHEAST WINDS 12 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    EAST AROUND 14 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 22 TO 29 MPH DECREASING TO 13 TO 18 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (MDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........44  43  42  45  48  52  60  69
WEATHER COV.....        SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV........        SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
TEMP............86  89  91  92  93  94  93  91
RH..............50  45  41  38  36  35  36  39
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  E
20 FT WIND SPD..13  14  14  14  14  15  15  14
20 FT WIND GUST.20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20
EYE LVL WND DIR.S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  E
EYE LVL WND SPD.8   8   8   8   8   9   9   8
EYE LVL WND GST.20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT CLOUD). SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THEN
                    A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN
                    THE EVENING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 9 TO 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20
                    MPH IN THE EVENING SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 5
                    TO 7 MPH...THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
                    AROUND 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................74 PERCENT.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2400...THEN 3 UNTIL 0400...THEN 2.
HAINES INDEX........5 (MODERATE).
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....EAST WINDS 9 TO 14 MPH IN THE EVENING SHIFTING
                    TO THE SOUTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH...THEN SHIFTING TO
                    THE NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 23 TO 28 MPH DECREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH
                    LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN DECREASING TO 5 TO
                    10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 4
                    TO 9 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........77  75  72  69  65  61  57  57  56  56  58  61
WEATHER COV.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV........LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH
TEMP............90  85  79  74  71  70  69  68  67  66  65  64
RH..............41  48  58  69  76  78  84  87  90  93  97  97
20 FT WIND DIR..E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  NE  N   N   N
20 FT WIND SPD..14  13  13  12  9   7   5   5   5   3   3   2
20 FT WIND GUST.20  15  15  15  15  10              5   5   5
EYE LVL WND DIR.E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  NE  N   N   N
EYE LVL WND SPD.8   8   8   7   5   4   3   3   3   2   2   1
EYE LVL WND GST.20  15  15  15  15  10              5   5   5

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT CLOUD). A SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN
                    THE AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....83-88.
MIN HUMIDITY........44-49 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 12 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................24 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1300...THEN 2 UNTIL 1600...THEN 3.
HAINES INDEX........3 (VERY LOW).
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 12 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 20
                    MPH IN THE LATE MORNING.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
SKY (%).........63        46        48        45
WEATHER COV.....                    S CHC     CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE      NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR
TSTM COV........                    S CHC     CHANCE
TEMP............65        73        80        85
RH..............93        73        58        48
20 FT WIND......NE 2G5    NE 10G15  NE 10G15  N 12G15
EYE LEVEL WIND..NE 1G5    NE 6G15   NE 6G15   N 7G15

$$
FORECASTER...MOHR
REQUESTED BY...RYAN CUMBOW
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1600085.0/ABR
.EMAIL RCUMBOW@FS.FED.US,18@SSW


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