Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FNUS71 KAKQ 241039
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for Blackwater Marslands...USFWS
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
539 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EST on February 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION
FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TODAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND RESULTS IN WARM TEMPERATURES AND
A RELATIVELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS SURGES
INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 10-20 MPH. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP INTO THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SUNDAY WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON RAINFALL COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS ON SATURDAY.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Patchy fog early
                    in the morning.
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........61 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds...becoming south 5 to 12 mph with
                    gusts up to 20 mph early in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Mixing height.......300-1900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 7 to 16 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)          10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).............44  45  46  48  47  47  47  46
Weather cov.........
Weather type........
Tstm cov............
Temp................63  65  67  69  70  71  69  68
RH..................72  70  68  66  63  61  66  68
20 FT wind dir......S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd......6   6   6   7   8   8   9   8
20 FT wind gust.....15  15  15  15  20  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft).......0.5 1.0 1.5 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.3
Transp wind dir.....S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.....9   10  12  14  15  15  16  16
LVORI...............3   3   3   3   2   2   3   3
ADI.................7   12  22  25  27  29  29  24
Chc of pcpn (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Haines index........3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
VRate kt-ft/1000....4   9   15  22  24  25  25  18

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent)...then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 54.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 9 mph.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Mixing height.......300-800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 15 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).............45  44  44  44  44  44  44  44  47  49  51  54
Weather cov.........
Weather type........
Tstm cov............
Temp................67  64  63  61  60  59  58  57  57  56  56  55
RH..................68  75  75  81  81  80  83  83  83  86  90  93
20 FT wind dir......S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd......6   6   6   6   6   5   5   5   5   4   4   4
20 FT wind gust.....15  15  15  15  15  15  10          5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft).......0.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.....S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.....15  15  14  13  12  10  9   8   7   6   6   6
LVORI...............3   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   6   6
ADI.................14  13  12  12  11  10  8   5   5   4   4   4
Chc of pcpn (%).....0   10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Haines index........3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4
VRate kt-ft/1000....10  3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   1   1   1

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent)...then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). A chance of
                    showers early in the afternoon. A chance of
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon. Showers likely
                    late.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........53 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 14 mph with gusts up to 25
                    mph...increasing to 13 to 16 mph with gusts up
                    to 30 mph early in the afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Mixing height.......300-2000 ft AGL...increasing to 2300-2900 ft
                    AGL early in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 15 mph...increasing to 15 to 18 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).............56     59     62     64     74     90
Weather cov.........                            CHANCE LIKELY
Weather type........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov............                            CHANCE CHANCE
Temp................55     57     63     68     71     69
RH..................93     86     72     61     55     57
20 ft wind..........S 4    S 5    S 8    S 10   S 11   S 12
20 ft wind gust.....5      15     20     25     30     30
Mix hgt (ft)........300    300    300    1400   2300   2900
Transport wind......S 6    S 9    S 14   S 15   S 15   S 16
LVORI...............6      5      3      2      1      1
ADI.................7      10     15     24     32     37
Chc of pcpn (%).....10     10     10     10     50     70
Haines index........4      4      3      3      3      3
VRate kt-ft/1000....1      2      3      19     31     40

$$
Forecaster...SCALORA
Requested by...John Ashcraft
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702467.4/AKQ
.EMAIL John_ashcraft@fws.gov



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