Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FNUS71 KAKQ 221057
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for Indian Creek Marsh...USFWS
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
657 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on March 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
...Breezy and dry conditions expected this morning into the
afternoon...

Scattered showers push offshore early this morning as low pressure
tracks off the North Carolina coast. Gusty north to northwest
winds are expected shortly after daybreak at the burn site, with
gusts of 35 to 40 mph this morning through this afternoon. A
cooler and drier air mass also overspreads the region with minimum
relative humidity values dropping to around 40 percent. Highs only
in the low 50`s. High pressure builds over the region tonight into
Thursday, resulting in ongoing dry conditions.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent)...then becoming partly
                    sunny (50-60 percent)...then becoming sunny
                    (0-10 percent). Showers likely early in the
                    morning...then a slight chance of showers early
                    in the morning.
Max temperature.....Around 51.
Min humidity........40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 7 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25
                    mph...increasing to 18 to 22 mph with gusts up
                    to 40 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Mixing height.......1000-2900 ft AGL...increasing to 3000 ft AGL
                    late.
Transport winds.....North 1 to 3 mph...increasing to 32 to 41 mph.

TIME (EDT)          8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).............100 100 100 100 68  37  5   5   5   5
Weather cov.........SCH SCH
Weather type........RW  RW
Tstm cov............
Temp................50  49  48  48  48  48  48  48  48  47
RH..................92  80  74  68  60  54  47  44  42  40
20 FT wind dir......N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd......9   11  14  16  16  16  16  16  15  15
20 FT wind gust.....20  25  30  40  40  40  40  40  35  35
Mix hgt (kft).......1.8 2.2 2.6 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0
Transp wind dir.....N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.....3   15  29  39  41  40  37  36  35  32
ADI.................7   30  62  93  98  95  87  84  81  77
Chc of pcpn (%).....20  20  10  10  0   0   0   0   0   0
VRate kt-ft/1000....6   28  63  100 106 101 93  91  87  83

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 31.
Max humidity........61 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 17 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35
                    mph.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Mixing height.......1400-2800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 23 to 30 mph.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).............3   2   0   0   0   0   2   4   6   5   3   2
Weather cov.........
Weather type........
Tstm cov............
Temp................45  43  41  39  39  38  37  36  35  34  34  33
RH..................43  45  48  50  50  52  52  54  56  56  56  56
20 FT wind dir......N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd......14  14  14  14  14  14  14  14  14  14  14  14
20 FT wind gust.....35  35  30  35  35  35  35  35  35  30  30  30
Mix hgt (kft).......2.8 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.4
Transp wind dir.....N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.....30  29  28  26  26  26  25  24  24  24  24  23
ADI.................70  38  37  36  36  36  34  33  27  26  26  26
Chc of pcpn (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
VRate kt-ft/1000....75  67  61  57  54  52  47  43  39  35  32  29

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 42.
Min humidity........34 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 8 to 17 mph. Gusts up to 30
                    mph.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Mixing height.......800-2400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 15 to 23 mph...becoming northeast 8 to 13
                    mph in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).............4      8      3      0      0      0
Weather cov.........
Weather type........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov............
Temp................32     32     38     42     42     42
RH..................61     61     46     36     34     36
20 ft wind..........N 14   N 13   N 10   N 8    NE 7   NE 6
20 ft wind gust.....30     30     25     20     15     15
Mix hgt (ft)........1200   800    1900   2200   1800   1700
Transport wind......N 23   N 22   N 18   N 15   N 10   NE 8
ADI.................21     25     34     29     20     18
Chc of pcpn (%).....0      0      0      0      0      0
VRate kt-ft/1000....25     16     30     28     17     12

$$
Forecaster...MINNICK
Requested by...Sue Spry
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1704861.0/AKQ
.EMAIL susan_spry@fws.gov


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