Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FNUS71 KAKQ 301101
FWSAKQ

SPOT FORECAST FOR BLACKWATER MARSH...USFWS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
601 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EST ON JANUARY 30.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT
EST TONIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...

...WINDY AND DRY TODAY...

A COLD FRONT EXITS THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY COLDER
AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP BY MID-MORNING
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. PEAK
GUSTS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. DRY AND
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE MIN RH VALUES TO CRASH INTO THE 35 PERCENT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. POOR RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT AS DRY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS PERSIST. CONTINUED DRY AND BREEZY ON SATURDAY.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SLEET IN THE MORNING.
TEMPERATURE.........39 AT IGNITION...MAX 42.
RH..................52 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 34 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT)....WINDS NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
               NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
               MPH...INCREASING TO 20 TO 23 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
               MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600-2300 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3800-5300 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 23 MPH...INCREASING TO 28 TO 37 MPH
                    IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EST)          5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............87  73  73  73  69  69  69  65  65  65  47  47  47
WEATHER COV.........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............
TEMP................34  33  34  35  37  38  39  40  41  41  42  39  36
RH..................72  75  72  66  59  54  52  48  41  39  36  39  40
CHC OF PCPN (%).....20  20  20  20  20  20  0   0   0   0   0   0   0
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.6 0.6 0.7 1.5 2.3 3.1 3.6 4.2 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.3 3.8
20 FT WIND DIR......W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT WIND SPD......10  10  10  12  15  16  17  18  20  21  22  23  23
20 FT WIND GUST.....20  20  20  20  25  30  30  35  35  40  40  40  40
TRANSP WIND DIR.....W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....13  15  18  23  28  31  32  32  32  33  36  37  37
LVORI...............3   4   3   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.................11  13  16  25  37  75  85  91  97  103 110 115 101
HAINES INDEX........2   3   3   3   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 12-16.
RH..................MAX 66-70 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT)....NORTHWEST WINDS 16 TO 23 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...
               DECREASING TO 35 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-2300 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL
                    LATE.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 29 TO 37 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EST)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............29  29  29  20  20  20  11  11  11  9   9   9
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................32  29  27  25  23  22  21  20  19  18  17  16
RH..................45  48  50  55  57  57  59  59  61  64  67  67
CHC OF PCPN (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
MIX HGT (KFT).......2.3 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3
20 FT WIND DIR......NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT WIND SPD......23  23  22  22  22  21  20  21  18  16  16  16
20 FT WIND GUST.....45  45  40  40  40  40  40  40  35  30  30  30
TRANSP WIND DIR.....NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....37  37  37  36  36  35  35  33  32  31  30  29
LVORI...............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   3   3
ADI.................78  42  40  39  31  31  31  30  29  28  27  26
HAINES INDEX........3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 30-32.
RH..................MIN 35-39 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT)....NORTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 17 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 1700-2600 FT
                    AGL LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 20 TO 28 MPH...DECREASING TO 15 TO
                    18 MPH LATE.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL.

TIME (EST)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   11  11  11
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................15  15  18  21  24  26  28  30  31  32  31  30
RH..................70  70  61  54  50  46  42  39  39  37  41  44
CHC OF PCPN (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 0.3 0.9 1.6 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 1.7
20 FT WIND DIR......NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT WIND SPD......16  16  16  16  17  16  15  14  13  12  10  9
20 FT WIND GUST.....30  30  30  30  30  30  30  25  25  20  20  15
TRANSP WIND DIR.....NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....28  26  26  25  24  23  22  21  20  20  18  17
LVORI...............3   3   2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.................25  24  23  28  49  48  46  45  43  41  39  37
HAINES INDEX........4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4



FORECASTER...DEROSA
REQUESTED BY...ART CANTERBURY
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150130.BLACK.01/AKQ








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