Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FNUS71 KALY 271621
FWSALY

SPOT FORECAST FOR FOR ARCADY BAY WILD FIRE...NYS DEC RAY BROOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1221 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1216 EDT ON AUGUST 27.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL LIFT AWAY WITH SOME CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY.
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES ONTO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE INTO THE NEW WEEK OVER THE
NORTHEAST. A FEW WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME INCREASED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT OTHERWISE VERY WARM HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE.

THE RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEY WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM BY FRIDAY
MORNING.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.
MIN HUMIDITY........51 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING NORTHWEST 6 TO 10 MPH.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............54.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING NORTHWEST 6 TO 10 MPH.
SURFACE WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING NORTHWEST 6 TO 10 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1000 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 6100-6800 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 2 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 10 TO 12
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (6500-38100 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 53.
MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............52...DECREASING TO 48 LATE.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200-6100 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 100-200 FT AGL
                    IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 TO 12 MPH...BECOMING WEST AROUND 2
                    MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (4000-38100 KNOT-FT).

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75.
MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............51...INCREASING TO 54 IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    AFTERNOON.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS.
SURFACE WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4200-6100 FT AGL
                    IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 1 TO 8 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (4000-22700 KNOT-FT).

$$
FORECASTER...DIRIENZO/VTK
REQUESTED BY...FR KABREHL
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20150827.ARCAD.01/ALY


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