Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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715
FNUS74 KAMA 220522
FWSAMA

Spot Forecast FOR ROMERO...Texas A&M Forest Service
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Amarillo TX
1222 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 0100 CDT on June 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
The combination of plenty low level moisture, a surface trough
to the west of the wildfire site and a northwesterly flow aloft
across the fire site will allow for isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms at the fire site tonight and then again Thursday
afternoon and evening after 1500 to 1700 hours CDT. 20 foot winds
will be from the southeast tonight 10 to 20 mph with some higher
gusts possible but then becoming south to southwest after 0300 to
0500 hours CDT Thursday 5 to 10 mph. Winds will become south 10
to 20 mph ahead of a cold front forecast to push through the fire
site around 1900 to 2100 hours CDT Thursday which will shift the
winds to the north and northeast 5 to 15 mph.

.TODAY...

Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (0-36500 knot-ft) increasing to
                    good (54000 knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 101.
LAL.................1 until 1300, then 2.
Min humidity........17 percent.
Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). Slight chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 5 to 13 mph decreasing to 5 to 10 mph late
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......0-1500 ft AGL increasing to 2000-3500 ft AGL
                    late in the morning, then increasing to
                    5500-7000 ft AGL early in the afternoon
                    increasing to 10000 ft AGL early in the
                    afternoon increasing to 12500 ft AGL increasing
                    to 15500 ft AGL late in the afternoon
                    decreasing to 10500 ft AGL.
20-foot winds.......South winds 7 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 OR moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Chance of Pcpn......10 percent.

Time (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  Noon   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR
Weather Cov.....                            S CHC  S CHC
Weather Type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Temp............66     71     84     93     98     100
RH..............70     55     38     27     19     16
20 Ft Wind......W 8    W 8    SW 9   SW 8   SW 7   S 8
20 Ft Wind Gust.10     10     10     10     10     10
Chc of Pcpn (%).10     10     10     10     20     20
Haines Index....4      5      5      5      4      4
VentR KtFt/1000.0      4      14     31     32     54

.TONIGHT...

Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (0-38700 knot-ft).
Min temperature.....Around 68.
LAL.................2.
Max humidity........70 percent.
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms.
Transport winds.....North 9 to 18 mph decreasing to around 7 mph
                    late in the evening, then shifting to the east
                    around 6 mph after midnight shifting to the
                    north 7 to 12 mph early in the morning.
Mixing height.......5500 ft AGL decreasing to 0-500 ft AGL.
20-foot winds.......East winds 7 to 8 mph shifting to the north 7
                    to 12 mph after midnight. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Haines Index........4 OR low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Chance of Pcpn......20 percent.

Time (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  Midngt 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........PCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY
Weather Cov.....S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Weather Type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Temp............101    94     84     79     76     72
RH..............18     25     34     42     50     59
20 Ft Wind......SE 8   SE 8   E 7    E 7    N 8    N 10
20 Ft Wind Gust.10     10     10     10     10     15
Chc of Pcpn (%).20     20     20     20     20     20
Haines Index....4      4      4      4      4      4
VentR KtFt/1000.39     7      7      3      3      0

.FRIDAY...

Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (6000-31500 knot-ft) increasing to
                    good to excellent (59500-72000 knot-ft) in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 88.
LAL.................1.
Min humidity........31 percent.
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent).
Transport winds.....Northeast 14 to 21 mph increasing to 20 to 29
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......500-1500 ft AGL increasing to 2500-3500 ft AGL
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
20-foot winds.......Northeast winds 13 to 16 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Haines Index........4 OR low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Chance of Pcpn......20 percent.

Time (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  Noon   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........PCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
Weather Cov.....S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Weather Type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Temp............68     71     79     84     86     87
RH..............70     61     45     37     35     32
20 Ft Wind......N 13   N 14   NE 16  NE 15  NE 14  NE 13
20 Ft Wind Gust.20     20     25     25     20     20
Chc of Pcpn (%).20     20     20     20     20     20
Haines Index....4      4      4      4      3      3
VentR KtFt/1000.6      18     60     63     66     63

$$
Forecaster...Schneider
Requested by...M. PETERS
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1711408.0/AMA



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