Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
000
FNUS73 KAPX 301243
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR OGEMAW BARRENS...DNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
843 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON APRIL 30.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP A DEEP AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. THE DRYNESS OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
EXACERBATED BY DEEPER MIXING HEIGHTS/LOWER EXPECTED SURFACE DEW
POINTS. HAVE THUS LOWERED EARLIER EXPECTED AFTERNOON HUMIDITY.
THE FLAT TERRAIN OF THE BURN SITE WILL MORE THAN LIKELY NOT
ALTER THE EXPECTED WIND DIRECTION.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........52 AT IGNITION...MAX 58.
RH..................38 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 23 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS EAST AT 7 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 11 MPH AT IGNITION. MAX THIS AFTERNOON 16
                    MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 100-1800 FT
                    AGL INCREASING TO 5300-5700 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (500) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (800).

TIME (EDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........28  32  36  38  41  47  53
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............52  55  56  57  58  58  57
RH..............38  32  30  28  25  23  24
20 FT WIND DIR..E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT WIND SPD..7   7   7   7   7   7   7
20 FT WIND GUST.10  15  15  15  15  15  15
HAINES INDEX....2   2   2   2   2   2   2
SMOKE DISP......500 600 600 600 700 800 800

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 39.
RH..................MAX 86 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........59  65  68  71  77  83  89  95  98  98  97  96
WEATHER COV.....        CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TEMP............55  53  50  48  46  44  43  42  42  41  40  39
RH..............27  31  36  40  47  55  62  67  70  75  80  85
20 FT WIND DIR..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   NE  NE  NE
20 FT WIND SPD..7   7   7   7   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT WIND GUST.15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MONDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. NORTH
WINDS AROUND 7 MPH.
.TUESDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...SCOTT DICKSON
REQUESTED BY...JIM FISHER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160430.OGEMA.01/APX



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.