Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS73 KAPX 251249
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Hawthorn...DNR
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
849 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 EDT on April 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989) 732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...A warm front is situated south of the burn site
this morning, which will lift north later this morning and early
afternoon. Southeast winds will likely get a little gusty in a
couple of hours, then shift more out of the south later today as
the warm front passes. There is a bit more surface moisture to
advect into the burn site today, but did have to lower values
from the general forecast, which has since been updated. Either
way, afternoon humidities are not expected to reach critical
levels. Just a mix of some higher level cloud and some scattered
cumulus for decent sunshine and warm temperatures.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Temperature.........60 at ignition...Max 68.
RH..................46 percent at ignition...Min 42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southeast at 8 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Light winds becoming south
                    5 to 8 mph. Occasional gusts up to 16 mph.
Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 400-2300 ft
                    AGL increasing to 3600 ft AGL late in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 12 to 17 mph.
Vent rate...........Good /300 at ignition. Max...good /300/.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 3.

TIME (EDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........55  54  54  50  46  48
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............60  63  64  66  66  66
RH..............46  44  45  42  42  43
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..8   8   8   8   7   6
20 FT wind gust.20  20  20  20  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.16  15  13  12  12  12
Haines index....2   3   3   3   3   3
VRate/100.......3   3   3   3   3   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (75-85 percent).
Temperature.........Min 50.
RH..................Max 100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 6 mph .

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........49  59  68  65  61  72  83  86  89  94  96  97
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............65  63  60  56  53  52  51  51  51  51  51  51
RH..............46  54  64  80  86  86  89  89  89  89  93  93
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S
20 FT wind spd..6   6   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.15  15  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10

$$
Forecaster...Scott Dickson
Requested by...Don Klingler
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1707736.0/APX



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