Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS73 KAPX 292203
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR GOOD HARBOR FIRE...NATIONAL PARK SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
603 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1739 EDT ON JULY 29.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A SOMEWHAT COOLER AIRMASS IS IN THE PROCESS OF SPREADING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN LAKES BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...NEAR
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 50 THURSDAY AT THE SITE OF THE FIRE AS
WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY OFF LAKE MICHIGAN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING FRONT...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGHOUT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........79 AT REQUEST...MIN 68.
RH..................50 PERCENT AT REQUEST...MAX 78 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST AT 13 MPH AT REQUEST...OTHERWISE
                    WEST WINDS 11 TO 13 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 22 TO 30 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 16
                    TO 21 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL AT REQUEST...OTHERWISE 200-500 FT
                    AGL.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT REQUEST...MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (300) AT REQUEST. MIN...POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL AT REQUEST...OTHERWISE 200-500 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 22 TO 30 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 16
                    TO 21 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........3   3   4   7   10  12  13  10  7   6   5   5
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............79  78  78  76  74  72  71  71  70  69  68  68
RH..............47  50  50  56  62  68  71  71  73  76  78  78
20 FT WIND DIR..SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  W   W
20 FT WIND SPD..11  12  12  11  11  10  10  10  11  11  11  11
20 FT WIND GUST.15  20  25  25  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20
HAINES INDEX....5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
SMOKE DISP......500 300 100 100 0   0   0   0   100 100 100 100

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 78.
RH..................MIN 52 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 10 TO 16 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 18 TO 26 MPH INCREASING TO 24 TO 28 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 1300-2500 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........MAX 4.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(1100).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 1300-2500 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 18 TO 26 MPH INCREASING TO 24 TO 28 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........5   7   7   8   11  12  14  18  20  21  24  27
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............68  69  70  71  73  74  75  76  77  78  78  78
RH..............76  73  68  66  62  59  58  56  54  52  52  52
20 FT WIND DIR..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD..11  11  12  13  14  15  15  15  15  13  11  9
20 FT WIND GUST.20  20  20  20  25  25  25  25  25  25  20  15
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
SMOKE DISP......100 100 100 200 200 400 700 100011001000600 300

$$
FORECASTER...TIM LOCKER
REQUESTED BY...NATE ORSBURN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20150729.GOODH.01/APX


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