Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FNUS71 KBGM 200953
FWSBGM

Spot Forecast for Long Valley Controlled Burn...PA Game Commission
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
453 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0500 EST on February 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

High pressure at the surface will build over the region today
and create mostly clear skies along with above normal
temperatures. A storm system will move into the region early
Tuesday evening and bring the possibility for rain showers across
the area.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 41.
Min humidity........41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......North winds 8 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......0 ft AGL...increasing to 900-2500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North around 0 mph...increasing to 12 to 20 mph
                    until late afternoon...then decreasing to 7 to
                    9 mph late.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
SUNSET..............

TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........40  40  37  33  30  25  21  16  15  13  12  15
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............33  33  33  33  34  36  38  40  41  41  41  40
RH..............75  75  75  75  72  64  54  48  44  42  41  42
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..7   7   7   8   8   7   7   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  15  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.3 0.9
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.0   20  20  18  18  17  16  15  13  12  9   7
Haines index....2   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 26.
Max humidity........71 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......North winds 5 to 7 mph early in the
                    evening...becoming light...then becoming south
                    5 to 8 mph after midnight.
Mixing height.......100-600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 1 to 7 mph.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.
SUNRISE.............

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........17  20  24  27  31  32  33  34  35  36  37  41
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............38  36  32  29  27  26  26  26  26  26  27  27
RH..............48  52  61  69  71  71  71  68  68  65  63  63
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   NE  NE  E   E   SE  SE  S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..6   5   4   3   2   2   3   4   5   5   6   6
20 FT wind gust.        5   5           5   5               10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   NE  E   E   SE  S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.5   3   2   2   1   1   1   2   3   5   6   7
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). A slight chance
                    of rain showers late.
CWR.................8 percent...increasing to 31 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 44.
Min humidity........44 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......South winds 10 to 14 mph.
Mixing height.......400-1600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 9 to 18 mph...increasing to 16 to 21 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.
SUNSET..............

TIME (EST)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........45        59        63        70
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0         0         0         10
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............27        31        39        43
RH..............63        58        48        47
20 FT wind......S 8G10    S 9G15    S 10G20   S 11G20
Mix hgt (ft)....400       900       1500      1300
Transport wind..S 9       S 15      S 20      S 20
Haines index....5         5         4         4

$$
Forecaster...Hawley
Requested by...Philip M. Kasper
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702464.0/BGM
.EMAIL pkasper@pa.gov



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