Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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000
FNUS75 KBOI 121621
FWSBOI

SPOT FORECAST FOR DENIO BASIN...BURNS BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1021 AM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0838 PDT ON JULY 12.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...ISOLATED STORMS WITH GUST POTENTIAL TO 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

...NOTE...POINT GIVEN WAS NEAR RIDGETOP WITH EAST ASPECT. PHONE
CALL WITH DISPATCH INDICATES FIRE IS IN A BOWL WITH NEARLY FLAT
ASPECT. WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR FLAT BOWL...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY DUE TO SHELTER AND WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT. TODAY NEAR RIDGETOP...WIND WILL BE NW 4 TO 8 MPH.

.DISCUSSION...
AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR THE BURN SITE. WIND
FROM STORMS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GUST TO 45 MPH. OTHERWISE IT WILL
BE HOT AND DRY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 20% THIS AFTERNOON.
TOMORROW A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE BY TO THE WEST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS OFF TO THE
WEST...BUT ONLY ISOLATED STORMS NEAR THE FIRE. GUSTY WINDS FROM
OUTFLOW FROM THE STORMS...COMBINED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT...IS THE MAJOR THREAT FOR TOMORROW. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
WOULD BE FOR GUSTY NW WINDS TO BLOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. THESE WINDS COULD BE SUSTAINED 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 50 MPH...BUT FORECAST FOR WINDS TOMORROW GIVEN BELOW REFLECTS
WINDS WITHOUT THE INFLUENCE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL BE EVEN
HOTTER AND DRIER TOMORROW THAN TODAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....84 TO 88.
MIN HUMIDITY........15 TO 19 PERCENT.
WIND - EYE LEVEL....LIGHT AND VARIABLE...LESS THAN 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......10500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH.
VENTILATION INDEX...525 GOOD.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....66 TO 71.
MAX HUMIDITY........30 TO 40 PERCENT.
WIND - EYE LEVEL....LIGHT AND VARIABLE...LESS THAN 3 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTH AROUND 5 MPH.
VENTILATION INDEX...10 POOR.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOTTER. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....88 TO 95.
MIN HUMIDITY........12 TO 17 PERCENT.
WIND - EYE LEVEL....NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......11000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH.
VENTILATION INDEX...550 GOOD.

$$
FORECASTER...PARKER
REQUESTED BY...SHANE THEALL
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20140712.DENIO.01/BOI



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