Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FNUS75 KBOU 031405
FWSBOU

SPOT FORECAST FOR A G  RANCH PILES...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
656 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0705 MST ON MARCH 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THEN SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS NOW AND UPSLOPE WINDS SHOULD
REACH THE BURN AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON DISPERSAL WILL LIKELY
BECOME POOR DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND THE COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR...BUT IT
SHOULD ALSO BE SNOWING STEADILY BY THEN.  SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW SHOULD
FALL OVERNIGHT...ENDING AROUND SUNRISE. DEEPER MIXING SHOULD BRING BETTER
DISPERSAL BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY DESPITE COLD TEMPERATURES.

I MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE WINDS AND MIXING/DISPERSAL FROM THE TABLE BELOW.
THE TEXT IS THE ACTUAL FORECAST.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL
                    1300...THEN SNOW.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....30-34.
MIN HUMIDITY........40-50%.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST 4-10 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN
                    WEST 7-14 MPH UNTIL 1400. THEN UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH.
CWR.................10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 65 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300-4300 FT AGL UNTIL 1400...THEN 2000-3000 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10-20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN FAIR UNTIL
                    1400...THEN POOR.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SNOW UNTIL 0200...THEN SNOW LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 5 ABOVE.
MAX HUMIDITY........80-95%.
WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH.
CWR.................65 PERCENT DECREASING TO 50 PERCENT EARLY IN
                    THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900-3900 FT AGL UNTIL 2200...THEN 1400-2400 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10-15 MPH UNTIL 2300...THEN LIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0800...THEN
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1100.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 16.
MIN HUMIDITY........53%.
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH.
CWR.................25 PERCENT DECREASING TO 5 PERCENT IN THE LATE
                    MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600-3600 FT AGL UNTIL 1200...THEN 6000-7000 FT
                    AGL UNTIL 1600...THEN 4300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS UNTIL 1100...THEN NORTHWEST 10-15
                    MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1200...THEN GOOD.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS NEAR ZERO. HIGHS AROUND 30. WEST
WINDS 8-10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...NOT AS COOL. MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 10. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 40S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 12. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S.
TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH.


FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR A G  RANCH PILES.

+++  DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE
     FORECAST DATABASE.  VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM
     INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST.  FEEDBACK WELCOME.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  15KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

03/03-06 81 28  8 24 53  SW  5  5 2 1   W 48  2296   W 18 35219 P
03/03-07 82 35 13 25 54 WSW  7  7 2 1   W 44  2544   W 15 32324 P
03/03-08 90 38 16 25 55 WSW  9 15 2 1   W 38  2792   W 13 29428 P
03/03-09 92 40 18 26 56 WSW 12 18 2 1   W 37  3618   W 13 40315  F
03/03-10 94 43 20 26 56 WSW 13 21 2 1   W 35  4444 WSW 13 51201  F
03/03-11 99 53 28 30 49 WSW 14 22 2 1   W 32  5269  SW 14 62088   G
03/03-12 99 57 33 31 49 WSW 14 22 2 1   W 31  4082  SW 12 45789  F
03/03-13 99 61 39 30 53 WSW 13 21 3 1 WSW 30  2895  SW 10 29491 P
03/03-14100 70 53 26 63 WSW 12 18 3 1 WSW 29  1707 SSW  9 13193 P
03/03-15100 74 59 23 68 WSW 10 16 3 1 WSW 31  2510  SW 10 23796 P
03/03-16100 77 63 20 73   W  8 13 3 1   W 32  3313  SW 12 34400 P
03/03-17100 77 63 19 71 WNW  7  7 3 1   W 33  4116 WSW 13 45003  F
03/03-18100 76 62 17 73 WNW  7  7 3 1   W 35  3725 WSW 13 39784 P
03/03-19100 76 62 16 72 WNW  7  7 3 1   W 35  3335 WSW 12 34565 P
03/03-20100 76 62 16 67 WNW  7  7 3 1   W 36  2944 WSW 12 29346 P
03/03-21100 76 62 15 63 WNW  6  6 3 1   W 33  2682   W  9 22233 P
03/03-22100 76 62 14 58   W  5  5 3 1   W 31  2420   W  7 15121 P
03/03-23 98 78 65 13 55   W  3  3 3 1   W 29  2158   W  5  8008 P
03/04-00 98 78 65 11 57   W  3  3 3 1   W 25  2110 WNW  5  7895 P
03/04-01 98 78 65 10 58   W  3  3 3 1   W 22  2062   N  5  7781 P
03/04-02 98 68 50  8 63   W  5  5 3 1   W 17  2014  NE  5  7667 P
03/04-03 98 68 50  7 67   W  5  5 3 1   W 20  1708  NE  3  6104 P
03/04-04 98 68 50  6 73  NW  6  6 3 1   W 22  1402 NNE  3  4540 P
03/04-05 88 49 25  5 79  NW  6  6 3 1   W 24  1096 NNE  3  2977 P
03/04-06 88 49 25  5 79 NNW  6  6 3 1   W 24  1302 NNE  3  4063 P
03/04-07 88 49 25  6 75   N  5  5 3 1   W 25  1509  NE  5  5148 P
03/04-08 78 21  4  7 72   N  5  5 3 1   W 25  1715  NE  5  6234 P
03/04-09 78 21  4  9 69   N  5  5 3 1   W 29  2575   N  6 13892 P
03/04-10 78 21  4 12 64 NNW  5  5 2 1   W 31  3436  NW  7 21549 P
03/04-11 66  9  2 14 61 NNW  5  5 2 1   W 32  4296   W  8 29207 P
03/04-12 66  9  2 16 55 NNW  6  6 2 1   W 31  5372 WNW 12 58202  F
03/04-13 66  9  2 16 53  NW  7  7 2 1   W 30  6447 WNW 15 87198   G
03/04-14 66  9  2 15 53 WNW  8 13 2 1   W 30  7523 WNW 17116193    V
03/04-15 66  9  2 14 53 WNW  8 14 2 1 WNW 32  5933 WNW 17 90470   G
03/04-16 66  9  2 12 55 WNW  8 13 2 1  NW 37  4343  NW 17 64748   G
03/04-17 40  1  0 10 58 WNW  8 13 2 1  NW 41  2753  NW 16 39025 P
03/04-18 40  1  0  7 64 WNW  8 13 2 1 NNW 48  2303 WNW 16 32147 P
03/04-19 40  1  0  5 68 WNW  8 13 3 1 NNW 55  1852 WNW 15 25269 P
03/04-20 40  1  0  4 69 WNW  8 13 3 1   N 61  1402 WNW 15 18392 P
03/04-21 40  1  0  3 70   W  8 14 4 1   N 62  1259   W 15 16743 P
03/04-22 40  1  0  3 67   W  9 14 4 1   N 60  1115   W 16 15095 P
03/04-23 23  1  0  2 68   W  9 15 5 1   N 56   972   W 16 13447 P
03/05-00 23  1  0  2 67   W 10 16 5 1   N 52   984   W 17 14498 P
03/05-01 23  1  0  2 66   W 12 17 5 1   N 46   996   W 18 15548 P
03/05-02 23  1  0  1 68   W 12 18 5 1 NNW 40  1008   W 18 16599 P
03/05-03 23  1  0  0 70   W 10 17 5 1 NNW 36  1040   W 18 16054 P
03/05-04 23  1  0  0 70   W 10 16 5 1 NNW 31  1071   W 17 15509 P
03/05-05 18  1  0  1 68   W  9 15 5 1  NW 28  1103   W 16 14964 P
03/05-06 18  1  0  3 68   W  9 15 4 1  NW 25  1104   W 15 14870 P
03/05-07 18  1  0  7 64   W 10 16 4 1  NW 24  1105   W 15 14776 P
03/05-08 18  1  0 12 58   W 10 16 3 1  NW 23  1107   W 15 14681 P
03/05-09 18  1  0 18 49   W  9 15 3 1  NW 21  2103   W 17 35748 P
03/05-10 18  1  0 24 42   W  7  7 4 1 NNW 18  3099 WNW 20 56815  F
03/05-11 30  1  0 30 36   W  6  6 4 1 NNW 17  4096 WNW 22 77882   G
03/05-12 30  1  0 33 34   W  6  6 4 1 NNW 18  4336 WNW 21 75831   G
03/05-13 30  1  0 34 35   W  6  6 3 1 NNW 21  4577 WNW 18 73779   G
03/05-14 30  1  0 33 38 WNW  6  6 3 1 NNW 23  4818 WNW 17 71728   G
03/05-15 30  1  0 31 40 WNW  6  6 4 1 NNW 23  3750 WNW 15 53405  F
03/05-16 30  1  0 27 45   W  6  6 4 1   N 23  2683 WNW 14 35082 P
03/05-17 35  0  0 23 50   W  6  6 5 1   N 22  1616   W 12 16758 P
03/05-18 35  0  0 20 54   W  7  7 5 1   N 23  1384   W 13 14621 P
03/05-19 35  0  0 17 58   W  8 14 5 1 NNW 24  1152   W 13 12485 P
03/05-20 35  0  0 15 61   W  9 15 5 1 NNW 25   921   W 13 10348 P
03/05-21 35  0  0 13 64   W  9 14 5 1 NNW 24   998   W 13 11210 P
03/05-22 35  0  0 11 68   W  8 13 5 1 NNW 22  1075   W 13 12071 P
03/05-23 20  0  0 10 69   W  7  7 5 1 NNW 21  1151   W 13 12933 P
03/06-00 20  0  0 10 67   W  7  7 5 1  NW 21  1160   W 13 12989 P
03/06-01 20  0  0 10 65   W  6  6 4 1  NW 21  1168   W 13 13045 P
03/06-02 20  0  0 10 63   W  6  6 4 1  NW 21  1177   W 13 13100 P
03/06-03 20  0  0 10 63   W  6  6 4 1  NW 20  1185   W 13 13453 P
03/06-04 20  0  0 10 63   W  6  6 5 1  NW 17  1193   W 14 13806 P
03/06-05 27  1  0 10 66   W  6  6 5 1 NNW 16  1201   W 14 14158 P

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
15KFT WIND  - 15000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...GIMMESTAD
REQUESTED BY...KRIS HEINY
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150303.AGRAN.01/BOU


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