Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FNUS71 KBUF 251446
FWSBUF

SPOT FORECAST FOR IROQUOUIS MOHAWK POOL...USFWS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1046 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON JULY 25.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDE
ANOTHER DAY OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH COOL MORNING TEMPERATURES
GIVING WAY TO A WARM AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LARGER SCALE SOUTHWEST WIND WILL
PREVENT A LAKE ONTARIO LAKE BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY HAS BEEN SLOW TO DROP SO FAR...BUT SHOULD DROP QUICKLY
AFTER ABOUT NOON AND WILL BOTTOM OUT AT 35 TO 40 PERCENT BY LATE
AFTERNOON WITH GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.
MIN HUMIDITY........37 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........SOUTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 14 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 6100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 16 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSION....MAX 85 (GOOD).

TIME (EDT)          11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............1   12  33  43  40  32  28
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................71  73  75  76  77  78  77
RH..................62  55  50  46  42  39  37
20 FT WIND DIR......W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD......8   9   9   10  12  13  14
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10  10  15  15  15  20
HAINES INDEX........5   5   4   4   4   4   5
SMK DISPERSION......34  45  57  68  79  85  81

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 59.
MAX HUMIDITY........82 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MIN 100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 17 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSION....MIN 1 (POOR).

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............26  21  19  23  30  34  38  48  52  56  64  68
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................75  73  71  69  67  65  62  61  59  59  60  61
RH..................40  44  50  55  60  66  72  77  80  78  75  72
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD......12  9   7   7   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT WIND GUST.....15  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
HAINES INDEX........5   5   5   5   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3
SMK DISPERSION......65  42  21  9   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    IN THE MORNING. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 79.
MIN HUMIDITY........57 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE
                    MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 4800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 20 MPH...INCREASING TO 22 TO 25
                    MPH LATE.
SMOKE DISPERSION....MAX 98 (GOOD).

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............72  82  87  85  81  79  81  82  82  82  82  81
WEATHER COV.........SCH SCH CHC SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............            CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
TEMP................63  64  63  66  70  73  75  76  77  78  79  78
RH..................71  70  82  74  66  61  59  58  58  58  59  61
20 FT WIND DIR......S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD......6   7   7   8   9   10  12  13  13  13  12  12
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10  10  10  10      15  15  15  15  15  15
HAINES INDEX........3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   5   5   5
SMK DISPERSION......1   1   1   4   9   19  37  59  78  92  98  90

$$

FORECASTER...HITCHCOCK
REQUESTED BY...PAUL HESS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140725.IROQU.01/BUF






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