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000
FNUS73 KDLH 172138
FWSDLH

SPOT FORECAST FOR GERMANN ROAD FIRE...WDNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
438 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1606 CDT ON MAY 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

RADAR WAS NOT SHOWING ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AS OF LATE
EVENING...AND THE PROBABILITY OVERNIGHT IS STILL NOT CERTAIN. THE
MODELS ARE OFFERING SEVERAL DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS OVERNIGHT RANGING
FROM WIDESPREAD RAIN TO VERY LITTLE RAIN COVERAGE. WE WENT WITH LIKELY
CHANCES...AROUND 60 PERCENT...FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL MOSTLY BE LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH...WITH A SMALL CHANCE AT RECEIVING AS MUCH AS A HALF INCH IF
A STRONGER SHOWER OR STORM MOVE OVERHEAD.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
                    THIS EVENING...BUT MOST LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-48.
MAX HUMIDITY........75-85 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND EARLY FROM 9 TO 14 MPH WITH
                    SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...THE
                    THE WIND WILL VEER TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST FROM 6 TO 10 MPH.
                    EXPECT GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400 FT AGL IN THE LATE
                    EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 15 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON DECREASING TO POOR
(3600).

TIME (CDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
TEMP............66     57     51     48     48     48
RH..............39     58     76     83     84     85
20 FT WIND DIR..ENE    E      SE     SE     SE     SE
20 FT WIND SPD..9      9      8      7      7      7
20 FT WIND GUST.17     13     10     8      8      8

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50
                    PERCENT. BEST CHANCE IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-53 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH. GUSTS TO 15 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (4200) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (65300).

TIME (CDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
TEMP............48     54     60     66     72     74
RH..............86     75     66     62     51     51
20 FT WIND DIR..SE     SE     SE     SE     SE     SE
20 FT WIND SPD..7      7      7      7      8      8
20 FT WIND GUST.8      8      8      8      10     10

$$
FORECASTER...DEAN M.
REQUESTED BY...GERMANN ICP
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130517.GERMA.02/DLH