Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FNUS73 KEAX 182000
FWSEAX

Spot Forecast for Lake Paho CA Prescribed Fire...Missouri Department of Conservation
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
300 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CDT on October 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at 1-800-438-0596, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Conditions Thursday will be very similar to conditions Tuesday
and today, though wind speeds will be notably less gusty. Expect
the south to southeast winds to persist through the day Thursday,
with similar conditions expected for Friday. But, Friday`s winds
will be a bit higher and gusty ahead of a cold front that will
move through the region Saturday.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
CWR.................1 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 76.
Min humidity........44 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......South winds 5 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......700-2500 ft AGL increasing to 2100-2900 ft AGL
                    late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 15 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........7   4   1   1   0   0   0
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............64  68  71  74  75  76  76
RH..............63  55  50  46  45  44  44
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..5   5   6   6   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.            10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 1.3 1.9 2.5 2.9 2.9 2.1
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.7   8   9   10  12  13  15
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
CWR.................1 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 53.
Max humidity........86 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......South winds around 6 mph.
Mixing height.......0-1100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 17 to 26 mph increasing to 28 to 31
                    mph after midnight.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or high potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........0   0   1   2   3   5   11  13  13  14  14  17
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............74  69  65  62  61  60  59  58  57  56  56  55
RH..............47  56  64  70  72  74  76  79  79  81  82  83
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.17  18  21  22  23  24  25  26  28  29  30  31
Haines index....5   4   4   4   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   6

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
CWR.................1 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 75.
Min humidity........46 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......South winds 6 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......200-2100 ft AGL increasing to 2400-2700 ft AGL
                    late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 26 to 31 mph.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or high potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........21  23  22  20  20  21  23  25  29  38  43  48
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............53  54  55  58  61  65  69  72  74  75  74  73
RH..............89  88  83  77  72  65  59  53  50  46  48  50
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..6   6   7   7   8   9   11  12  12  12  12  12
20 FT wind gust.    10  10  10  15  15  20  20  20  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.7 2.1 2.4 2.7 2.7
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.30  29  29  28  26  28  28  29  29  29  30  31
Haines index....6   6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

$$
Forecaster...Cutter
Requested by...Jesse Kamps
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1717488.0/EAX
.EMAIL jesse.kamps@mdc.mo.gov



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