Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FNUS73 KEAX 271451
FWSEAX

Spot Forecast for Bluff Pool...USFWS
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
851 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CST on February 27.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at 1-800-438-0596, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Winds on Tuesday will be out of the southeast around 10 to 15 mph,
with gusts approaching 20 to 25 mph. Expect humidity values to
remain pretty close to 40 percent through the middle part of the
day into the evening.

Winds become more southwest in orientation by Tuesday morning.
Expect winds to be a little gentler on Tuesday than Monday, with
SW winds around 10 to 15 mph, with little gusting. By Tuesday
evening a front will move through and change the winds around to
the northwest around 10 to 15 mph. Humidity values will bottom out
around 35 to 40 percent in the burn area on Tuesday.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent) then becoming partly
                    sunny (60-70 percent). Areas of fog early in
                    the morning. Slight chance of rain showers late
                    in the afternoon.
CWR.................1 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 58.
Min humidity........36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Light winds becoming southeast 6 to 13 mph with
                    gusts to around 25 mph in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......0-1800 ft AGL increasing to 2200-3600 ft AGL in
                    the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 12 to 21 mph increasing to 22 to 24 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........18  7   17  25  32  57  71  61  59  74
Weather cov.....ARS ARS                         SCH SCH
Weather type....FOG FOG                         RW  RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............31  37  43  49  53  56  58  58  57  56
RH..............92  72  57  46  38  37  36  37  42  45
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..3   6   9   12  12  13  13  13  12  10
20 FT wind gust.10  15  15  20  20  25  25  25  20  15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 2.6 3.2 3.6 3.6 3.1 2.2
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.13  14  16  18  21  22  23  23  24  24
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   3   3   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers early in the evening. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms in the evening. Slight chance of
                    rain showers late in the evening.
CWR.................1 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 47.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......South winds 8 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......300-1300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 24 to 33 mph increasing to 31 to 38
                    mph after midnight.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or high potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........84  81  79  76  72  68  64  67  69  71  73  74
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............55  53  51  49  48  48  47  47  47  47  47  47
RH..............51  57  66  74  80  83  89  93  100 100 100 100
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..8   8   9   9   9   9   10  12  12  12  12  10
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  15  15  15  20  20  20  20  15
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.2
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.24  25  25  26  28  29  30  33  37  38  36  31
Haines index....4   4   4   5   5   5   6   6   6   5   5   5

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers in the afternoon.
CWR.................1 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 65.
Min humidity........40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Northwest winds 8 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......1000-2300 ft AGL increasing to 3100-4400 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 17 to 25 mph shifting to the southwest 10
                    to 14 mph in the late morning and afternoon,
                    then shifting to the west around 14 mph late in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 6 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or high potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........75  74  72  72  75  81  85  84  83  83  84  87
Weather cov.....                        SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............47  49  50  52  55  59  62  63  63  64  61  58
RH..............100 93  86  77  66  55  48  44  43  40  42  45
20 FT wind dir..S   SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..10  8   8   8   8   9   9   9   9   9   9   10
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...1.4 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.7 2.3 3.2 4.1 4.4 4.0 3.1
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W
Transp wind spd.25  22  17  14  13  12  12  12  10  12  13  14
Haines index....6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   3   3   3

$$
Forecaster...LEIGHTON
Requested by...Sam Vanourney
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702987.0/EAX
.EMAIL sam_vanourney@fws.gov



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